Scattered Heavy Downpours Possible Beginning Today, Increasing Through the Week....

Expected impacts:

• Periods of showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at times from this afternoon through midday Saturday
• With ground conditions already saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will likely result at least at times during the Watch period
• Initially, the typical problem low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible over time as we move through the period
• On average, rainfall of 4-6 inches is expected for much of the area mainly from this afternoon through midday Saturday
• Locally higher amounts are possible in spots depending upon exactly where the heaviest rainfall recurs during the period

Discussion:
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at times across the area from this afternoon through midday Saturday. With ground conditions already saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will likely result at least at times during the period. Initially, the typical problem low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible in parts of the area over time as we move through the period. Please see below for a general overview of our present thinking for each day during the period:

...Today...
Scattered showers are possible this morning, becoming more numerous at times this afternoon into early this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early this evening. The activity is expected to decrease near Sunset.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: Low to Moderate (Not widespread, but localized depending upon specific locations of thunderstorms)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Low

...Wednesday...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the midday and afternoon hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: Moderate to High (mainly p.m.)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Low to Moderate (mainly later p.m.)

...Thursday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Friday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Saturday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the pre-dawn and morning hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High (especially a.m.)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Expected Rainfall Amounts...
In general, rainfall of 4-6 inches appears probable for most of the area on average throughout the period from this afternoon through midday Saturday. A few locations that receive particularly frequent bouts of heavier rain could see greater than 6 inches, while a few locations that don't receive as many heavy downpours could see less than 4 inches. It is also important to remember that ground conditions are already saturated going into this event, and stream/river levels are already running above normal levels across many parts of the area. Both of those factors indicate that it will take less rain than normal to cause flooding issues across the area.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in new/renewed flooding this week....

Expected impacts:

• Periods of showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at several different times mainly from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday morning
• With ground conditions already saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will likely result at least at times during the period
• Initially, the typical problem low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible in parts of the area over time
• On average, rainfall of 4-6 inches is expected for much of the area from mainly Tuesday afternoon through early Saturday morning
• Locally higher (and in some cases, lower) amounts are possible in spots depending upon exactly where the heavier thunderstorms track throughout the period

Discussion:
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at several different times across the area from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday morning. With ground conditions already saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will likely result at least at times during the period. Initially, the typical problem low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible in parts of the area over time. Please see below for a general overview of our present thinking for each day during the period:

...Today...
There is a chance for an isolated or widely spaced shower or thunderstorm across some portions of the local area mainly this afternoon or early this evening. While any such activity is expected to be isolated in nature at this time, if locally heavy downpours with an isolated thunderstorm occur in just the wrong place, then some mostly minor flooding issues could result in the adjacent low lying areas. Present indications suggest activity is more likely to occur to the immediate South of the local area today, but we'll continue to monitor trends closely.

...Tuesday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the afternoon hours, from 12 Noon to 6pm.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: Moderate
River/Stream Flood Risk: Low

...Wednesday...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the midday and afternoon hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate

...Thursday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Friday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the morning hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Saturday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the pre-dawn and early morning hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High (pre-dawn/early a.m.)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Expected Rainfall Amounts...
In general --to repeat-- in general, rainfall of 4-6 inches appears probable for most of the area on average throughout the period Tuesday (mainly afternoon) through Saturday morning. We emphasized the "in general" detail because of the fact that actual amounts will widely vary based on thunderstorm tracks throughout the period. A few locations that receive particularly frequent bouts of heavier rain could see greater than 6 inches, while a few locations that don't receive as many heavy downpours could see less than 4 inches. It is also important to remember that ground conditions are already saturated going into this event, and stream/river levels are already running above normal levels across many parts of the area. Both of those factors indicate it will take less rain than normal to cause flooding issues at least at times across the area.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue specific updates, alerts and/or warnings as conditions warrant.

More potential for locally heavy rainfall beginning Tuesday and then each day thereafter this week...

...Synopsis...
We are continuing to closely monitor a developing weather situation for the period Monday afternoon into Tuesday. While some specific details (as to exact rainfall amounts, etc.) are yet to be worked out, it appears probable that locally heavy rainfall can be expected at times across at least some portions of the area mainly during the day on Tuesday, which could lead to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times. This will be the first of several rain events to impact the area this week, each of which will carry a risk for locally heavy rainfall.

...Forecast...
There is a chance for an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm on Monday afternoon or Monday evening, but present indications suggest the majority of the area will remain dry during that time period. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin developing near dawn on Tuesday and then increase into much of the daytime hours, ending by around 6pm Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning can be expected at times with thunderstorms, most numerous at times during the day on Tuesday.

...Flood Risk...
Due to recent heavy rainfall and saturated ground conditions, there will be a higher than normal risk of low land flooding throughout the period in the affected portions of the area, to include probable impacts at times on at least some low water crossings, etc. Present trends suggest that any issue on Monday afternoon or evening would be very isolated. The primary concern is expected to occur during the day on Tuesday especially by the afternoon transportation period, the extent to which will become more clear in later updates.

...A Note About the Remainder of This Week...
Please also be aware that additional periods of shower and thunderstorm activity are likely at various times from Wednesday through Saturday of this week. An elevated risk of low land flooding will continue throughout the week due to recent heavy rainfall, saturated grounds, and the probability of additional heavy rain at times in at least some portions of the local area each day (generally except for Monday).

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Locally Heavy Rainfall Expected Again Monday-Tuesday; Additional activity possible later next week...

Expected impacts:

• Showers and thunderstorms are expected from Monday afternoon into Monday night and pre-dawn Tuesday
• Locally heavy rainfall (and lightning) can be expected at times with some of this activity
• Due to recent heavy rainfall and saturated ground conditions there will be a higher than normal risk of low land flooding throughout the period

Discussion:
...Synopsis...
We are closely monitoring a developing weather situation for the period Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. While some specific details (as to exact rainfall amounts, etc.) are yet to be worked out, it appears probable that locally heavy rainfall can be expected at times across at least some portions of the area during the period, which could lead to flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times during the period.

...Forecast...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Monday afternoon, initially on a scattered basis. The activity is expected to increase in coverage by Monday evening and continue at times into pre-dawn Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall (and lightning) can be expected at times with some of this activity. The activity is then expected to decrease in coverage on Tuesday morning.

...Flood Risk...
Due to recent heavy rainfall and saturated ground conditions there will be a higher than normal risk of low land flooding throughout the period in the affected portions of the area, to include probable impacts on low water crossings, etc. Please note that both the Monday afternoon transportation period and the Tuesday morning transportation period would be impacted by this activity, the extent to which will become more clear in later updates.

The reason that the Advisory extends until 12 Noon Tuesday, yet we expect the rain to end pre-dawn Tuesday, is because runoff from earlier rainfall would likely continue well into the morning hours, after the falling rain has ended. If present trends continue, a Flood Watch will likely be required for all or part of the period in later updates.

...A Note About the Remainder of Next Week...
Please also be aware that additional periods of shower and thunderstorm activity appear probable at times from Wednesday through Friday of next week. An elevated low land flood risk is likely to continue throughout the week due to recent heavy rainfall, saturated grounds, and the probability of additional heavy rain at times in at least some portions of the local area. We will issue additional advisories, watches, etc., for specific time periods as the day-to-day situation becomes more clear.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on showers and thunderstorms for late afternoon/evening...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the local area from now into the evening hours. When shower and thunderstorm activity are present, they are likely to move from the Southwest to the Northeast across the area in general, though some erratic movement is possible at times with some of the activity.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected at times with any thunderstorms. The activity will tend to move slowly - likely at 10-15 mph on average. This could result in minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (such as low water crossings, etc.) at times in the affected areas, especially in those parts of the area that received heavier downpours yesterday and/or early this morning.

The atmosphere has destabilized somewhat since the rain from earlier today but it is not, however, highly unstable. Therefore, the risk of any significant and/or organized "severe" weather this evening appears low for the local area. An isolated stronger thunderstorm could produce gusty winds and/or spotty, mostly smaller size hail in mainly isolated portions of the area. The risk of strong to severe thunderstorm activity will be higher (and the activity likely more numerous) to the South of the local area, based on present indications.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update for northern Travis and Williamson Counties...

Expected impacts:

• Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area from the West through 5pm, and continue into the 5 and likely the 6 o'clock hours
• Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected at times with some of this activity
• Locally heavy downpours over some of the same areas could result in localized minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times this evening

Discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area from the West through 5pm, and continue into the 5 and likely the 6 o'clock hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected at times with some of this activity. Should locally heavy downpours occur repeatedly over some of the same areas, it could result in localized minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times this evening.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates and/or specific alerts/warnings as conditions warrant.

Update for Southern Travis and Hays Counties...

Expected impacts:

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area from now into the evening hours
• Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are possible at times with any thunderstorms
• Any slow moving thunderstorms with heavy downpours of rain could produce minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas at times this evening
• An isolated stronger thunderstorm may also produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in some parts of the area
• Present trends suggest that conditions will be more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms to the South of the local area this evening

Discussion:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area from now into the evening hours. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are possible at times with any thunderstorms.

Any slow moving thunderstorms with heavy downpours of rain could produce minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas at times this evening, and there's a slight chance that an isolated stronger thunderstorm may also produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in some parts of the area.

Present trends suggest that conditions will be more favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms (i.e., with large hail, damaging winds, etc.) to the South of the local area this evening.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates and/or specific alerts/warnings as conditions warrant.