Trying to Make Your Way Back to Austin from D.C.?

The big blizzard ended as expected overnight, but has left behind a huge mess that will take, in some cases, days to fully clean up.  Above is an image showing total snowfall across the northeast into southern New England from this event. Below is the same image, zoomed in on Washington DC at the center:

As feared/expected, as much as 2-3 feet of snow fell across much of the DC area, northwest into western Maryland and northcentral Virginia.  Drifts of snow have buried cars like toys across the region as well.

So, the $64,000 question - "When can I get out of D.C.?!?!?!"  As of this writing, Washington Dulles International Airport says that there are no departing flights scheduled for today, as they'll need the entire day to recover the airport.  You can check the Winter Storm page of their website for later updates.

The same is true for Washington Reagan National Airport, with no departures planned for today.  You can view the airport status on this page.

Snow removal operations at Washington Reagan Airport 1/24/16

If you had flights scheduled out of area airports today, the best bet is to check with your airline on available options as soon as possible.  Remember, the early bird catches the worm, and with hundreds of flights having to be rescheduled, you'll want to be as close to the front of the line as possible to ensure you can get out once regular airport operations resume.

With air travel snarls likely to last into early this week, another option might be to take Amtrak to another city where airport operations will get back to normal faster, but you'll have to wait until at least Monday to use this option out of DC, as Amtrak is not running service there today.  Outside of the DC area, Amtrak is operating on a "limited" schedule today, and should see increased operations on Monday.  Again, you'd want to check with your airline for options in outlying areas first, and then see if Amtrak can help you get there on Monday or Tuesday.  The link to the Amtrak bulletin above pertains to Sunday, 1/24/16 only. For later updates to the Amtrak system status, you can use this link.

So if you're still hunkered down - hang in there - the Lone Star State awaits your arrival as soon as you can get back safely!

Snow Accumulation is Picking Up in D.C.

The snow began in D.C. right on schedule around midday and continues to increase at this time.  This trend will continue into tonight and Saturday, and we still expect nearly 2 feet of snow on average across most of the region, with higher amounts possible in spots:

When you combine the heavy snow with strong, gusty winds, blizzard conditions will occur at times, with widespread blowing and drifting snow likely to continue across the region through Sunday.

Hopefully you're hunkered down somewhere by this point, and ready to ride this thing out.  It is rapidly getting to the point where it is unsafe to be outside, and this condition will only worsen with time.

Our next primary focus will be on letting you know when you will be able to think about getting back to Austin, but we probably won't be able to start looking at that angle until sometime tomorrow, once we see how severe conditions become across the region, and gauge the fallout at major airport hubs all along the Eastern seaboard.

Blizzard Getting Underway in Virginia - Will Reach DC by Tonight

No major changes to the snowfall forecast as a blizzard unfolds across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. today through Sunday.

We continue to expect some of the highest, if not the highest, snowfall totals to occur very near the Washington/Baltimore area, with 1-2 feet likely on average, and localized amounts of 2-3 feet possible.

The images below show the latest total snowfall forecast maps for the region as a whole, and then a zoom-in on the Washington DC area:

Snow has already started to fall in western Virginia early this morning.  Light snow will begin in the Washington DC area by late morning or midday, and will dramatically increase this afternoon and evening, with blizzard conditions likely by this evening and into tonight.

Travel will become impossible across most of the above mentioned areas starting this evening and increasing in severity into tonight and Saturday.  Strong, gusty winds will continue into Sunday, which will cause continued blowing and drifting well after the accumulating snows have ended.

If you're already in the DC area we suggest finalizing your plans to "hunker down" through at least Monday.  You still have most of the morning and midday a hours today to grab any last minute supplies.  We would also suggest taking out some cash from an ATM, in case power outages cause problems with "plastic" currency during the weekend, but that may be a mute point, because it will be very difficult or impossible to move about the area anyway based on present expectations (but it never hurts to be prepared).

Washington DC Area Winter Storm Update

In case you missed the original post this morning, we're following the major winter storm that is headed toward the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. for the benefit of Austinites that regularly travel between the capital of Texas and our nation's capital.

Not much has changed since the morning update, and you can still refer to that post for additional details, but we did want to provide the latest storm total snowfall forecast for the region:

...as well as for the Washington DC/Baltimore area specifically:

The amount of snow currently forecasted for the Baltimore/Washington area is approaching/exceeding record levels (#1 in the record books is a 28 inch snow storm in January of 1922, and #2 is a 20.5 inch snow storm in February of 1899).

Regardless of the exact total from the upcoming system, major impacts will be had on all ground and air transportation throughout the region.  The greater Washington DC transportation system (METRO) has already announced closings for the storm, and many airlines are also in the process of cancelling flights and/or issuing waivers.

Because so many airport hubs will be impacted by this storm, it will be important to check your flights ahead of time for cancellations and/or delays from tomorrow through at least Monday.

If you have already arrived in the DC area or will arrive early Friday, make sure that you have a back-up plan to include possibly becoming "stranded" until Monday.

Powerhouse Winter Storm to Impact the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic

Here at SCTX Aware, we don't talk about storm systems in other parts of the country very often, as our focus is primarily on the greater Austin Metro area.  We are, however, paying close attention to the impending major winter storm for the Northeast U.S. tomorrow through Sunday for two primary reasions:  (1).  many Austinites work for the government and frequently travel to the Washington DC area, and (2).  air travel will likely be impacted nationwide by this system.

The impacts from snow from this system will be very high to extreme for a large portion of Virginia, northeast into the Baltimore/Washington DC area, as shown in lavender on the image below (courtesy of our partners at WeatherGuidance):

Within that region, snowfall totals of 1-2 feet, yes, feet, will be common, and widespread blowing and drifting will occur with strong, gusty East to Northeast winds:

The combination of the strong, gusty winds and heavy, wet snow will likely result in power outages in many areas, especially within and near the lavender shaded area on the above image, where wind impacts are likely to be the highest.  Peak wind gusts of 50 mph (and possibly higher in spots) are expected in this general region.

Snow will begin on Friday afternoon in the southwest part of the areas referenced above, and will spread to the East and Northeast into Saturday and early Sunday.

By 7pm EST on Saturday,  here is a snapshot of the likely snow totals on average across the region:

Again, we would emphasize that the above totals are through 7pm on Saturday.  Additional snow will fall on Saturday night into early Sunday, especially from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England.

Most major airlines have already instituted travel waivers due to this storm, and others will likely follow in the coming few days.  

If you have travel plans into the DC area from Austin today, you will encounter no problems from the weather.  The snow will begin during the day tomorrow and you should expect to be "stuck" at your destination through early next week.  In case you missed it, there was about 0.5 inch to 1.0 inch of snow in DC yesterday, and from the outside looking in the scene could be best described as "pandemonium".  If it was that crazy yesterday from less than an inch of snow, can you imagine what will happen with 1-2 feet of snow this weekend?  The city will be shut down for all practical purposes, and it may take days for it to become fully functional again.

With many major airport hubs to be directly impacted by this storm tomorrow through Sunday, you should also expect widespread "ripple effects" on air travel nationwide through at least Monday, and possibly longer.  If you have any travel plans even in other parts of the country through early next week, it would be wise to check on your flight(s) ahead of time, especially if any connecting flights originated (or were supposed to have originated) from the eastern and northeastern U.S.

"Stay tuned" here to SCTX Aware and we'll keep you updated on any major changes with this system.

The Week Ahead: Look for a Wet Wednesday...

We're not looking for anything in the way of hazardous weather conditions across the local area for the first full week of 2016.

You can expect rain for most of Wednesday, with total accumulations of 0.5-0.75 inch likely on average across the local region.  The majority of the accumulating rainfall is expected to occur from near 6am through about 10pm on Wednesday:

Generally lighter and less-widespread rain is expected across the area again on Saturday.

Temperature-wise look for highs generally in the 60s Thursday-Saturday, and in the 50s the remainder of the week.  Lows will average the upper 30s to lower 40s this week for the most part.

For a more detailed look at the forecast, please visit the forecast section of the website by using the menu along the right-hand side of the homepage:

A Word About Weather Observations

You've probably noticed by now that we have placed "current condition widgets" in the upper right hand section of the site.  These widgets show the most recent airport weather observations at Austin-Bergstrom International airport (ABIA), the Georgetown airport and the San Marcos airport.

In case you didn't know, not all airport weather stations are created equal. While each of these stations are "automated", not every station reports precipitation (whether it's falling or accumulated).

Among the stations represented by the batch of widgets on our site, for example, only ABIA reports precipitation.  With that in mind, you'll always see only cloud conditions at San Marcos and Georgetown.  For ABIA you'll see cloud conditions (clear, partly cloudy, mostly cloudy or overcast) if no precipitation is falling, or you'll see precipitation indicated if that is occurring (most often represented as a thunderstorm, rain, snow or ice).

If you live in San Marcos or Georgetown but are away from the area and want to see if precipitation is falling there, we recommend pulling up the SCTX Aware interactive radar, which is located on the menu bar at the right side of the homepage (see the radar icon in the lower right corner of the snapshot below):

We're also working on adding an "almanac" (a fancy word for weather history) feature which will allow you to choose a particular weather variable for a particular station and plot it out on a graph over a specified period time, like in the example shown in the image below:

We plan to have this functionality online in the next day or two, and we hope you'll find it useful.

If you have a question, comment or suggestion about anything on the site, please let us know and we'll be sure to address it as soon as possible.

El Nino = Cooler, Wetter Weather for SCTX in January and February

With El Nino now in full swing, we're looking for generally cooler and wetter than normal weather conditions across southcentral Texas as we move into January and February.

The image below shows the latest "Climate Forecast Model" prediction of temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for North America for the month of January (and the map looks much the same heading into February):

CFS January Temperature Departure from Normal (Forecast)

Note that much of southcentral Texas is in the lighter blue shadings, which indicates colder than normal conditions are likely this month.  We agree with this general forecast based on present and expected conditions.

In case you're keeping track - the average high and low temperatures in Austin in January are 60° and 40° F, respectively and are 65° and 45° F, respectively, in February.

The precipitation outlook from the same model also places much of Texas, including our local area, in the "above normal" range for January (and the map looks much the same heading into February):

CFS January Precipitation Departure from Normal (Forecast)

FWIW, the normal rainfall total for Austin in January is 1.89 inches.  The normal rainfall in February is 2.01 inches.

A popular question recently has been "will we see more bad winter weather days in January and February this year due to El Nino".  The short answer is:  not necessarily...

Just because temperatures will likely average "below normal" during the period doesn't necessarily mean that they'll be cold enough to support more widespread freezing precipitation vs. what we'd normally see in late winter.

The safe bet at this point is that this year we're likely to see at least the "normal" number of potentially icy weather days in January and February, and if conditions come together just right, we may see a bit more activity vs. normal as we head into the latter part of this winter.

Stay tuned here to SCTX Aware and we'll keep you advised on the latest winter weather conditions and forecasts for the local area.

You Can Get Mail!

We'll be putting up blog posts here on the new site, concerning not only pertinent weather information and related items, but also other public safety, preparedness and emergency/risk management related topics.

You can sign up to receive an email alert each time a new blog post is published, which will contain a link to the post.

If you'd like to do that, just go to the "Follow By Email" section on the right hand side of this page (toward the bottom) and enter your email address:

...and the next time a post is made, you'll get an update!

What to Expect on the Weather Front

One of our primary goals here at SCTX Aware is to bring independent, unbiased reporting on significant weather conditions in Williamson, Travis and Hays counties of southcentral Texas.

With that in mind, you shouldn't expect a daily tweet or post about the weather when nothing significant is happening. If something significant is expected to happen during the next 7 days, we'll be sure to let you know about it as soon as the situation becomes clearly defined. For routine, day-in and day-out weather information and forecasts, please refer to the "Forecast" link in the upper right hand corner of the homepage:

In the same menu area you'll also find links to current conditions, an almanac containing historical data (coming soon), and an interactive weather radar application built on the Google Maps platform.

We hope you'll find these tools useful in planning your daily activities around the weather, and we plan to make additional enhancements in the coming days and weeks.

If you have any questions or suggestions, please be sure to let us know!

Welcome Back to the Original SCTX Aware Concept!

Welcome back to SCTX Aware!  

As of today, January 1, 2016, SCTX Aware is being administered once again by two of its original founding members, Ralph Fisk and Rob White.

Ralph is the Director and Principal Consultant at Fisk Consulting, an Austin area firm focused on corporate and personal protection as well as emergency management and risk assessment.

Rob is a meteorologist and the President of WeatherGuidance LLC, an Austin area firm that provides customized, site specific weather information, forecasts and storm warnings to a variety of clients and industries across the U.S. and Canada.

What can you expect from here on out?  We see the group getting back to its original focus of providing detailed, actionable information concerning hazardous weather conditions, public safety and personal protection matters for Williamson, Travis and Hays counties of the Austin Metro area in a totally independent, unbiased way. To that end, we have no ties to any government agencies, nor do we have any media ties or affiliations.

Take a look around the site and let us know what you think.  You'll find links to helpful weather information including current conditions, the local forecast and live radar in the upper right hand corner of the page.  Pertinent safety and security links are coming soon as well, so be sure to check back often over the coming days and weeks as additional features are added!

If you aren't already, please be sure to follow us on twitter and facebook (links are provided at right) for "rapid fire" updates during fast changing situations, and check back here on the main page for more detailed information as well as articles on pertinent topics that fall under our areas of expertise.

In summary, if you're looking for "the bottom line" summary on critical weather and personal safety information for the Austin Metro area (including Williamson, Travis and Hays Counties), we think you're in the right place, and we look forward to providing this information to you for a long time to come!

Thanks again, and we wish everyone the best in 2016!