Short Term Update through 6pm (with an outlook into this evening)...

...For the period now until 6pm Today...
Spotty light snow flurries and patchy very light sleet are possible through 6pm in some parts of the area mainly along and/or East of I-35. No additional ice, sleet and/or snow accumulation will occur with any of this activity.

Even though measurable precipitation has now ended, we continue to highly discourage travel across the area into the late afternoon and evening hours, as many roadways will continue in a hazardous condition from earlier icing as temperatures will continue to remain well below freezing.

Gusty North winds of 15-25 mph and temperatures holding steady in the 20s will continue to create bitter cold Wind Chills mainly in the lower teens through 6pm.

...Looking ahead to after 6pm into the evening hours...
We continue to recommend that travel be avoided across the area as much as possible into the evening hours, as many roadways will continue in a hazardous condition from earlier icing as temperatures will continue to remain well below freezing. Treatment of roadways and a gradual increase in traffic will likely result in improved conditions later this evening into tonight, but at least scattered slick spots will remain especially on elevated roadways and on lesser traveled roads that were ice covered during the day today.

Gusty North winds of 15-25 mph and temperatures holding steady in the 20s will continue to create bitter cold Wind Chills mainly in the lower teens through the evening hours.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Hazardous conditions will continue well into the afternoon hours (even after precip ends)....

...For the period now until 3pm Today...
Periods of sleet, light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will continue across the area through about 2pm, then begin to shift out of the area to the East and Southeast.

We continue to see widespread reports of dangerous conditions on many roadways across the region, and this trend will continue into the afternoon hours as temperatures will remain well below freezing (even after the precipitation has ended).

In addition to the wintry precipitation across the area, gusty North winds of 20-30 mph and temperatures holding nearly steady in the 20s will continue to produce bitter cold Wind Chills mainly in the teens through this afternoon. If you must be outdoors for more than a 10 minute period, be sure to take precautions to protect exposed skin and prevent fatigue.

...A Look Ahead to After 3pm...
Even though measurable precipitation is expected to end by around 2-3pm for most of the area, sub-freezing temperatures will continue into the late afternoon and evening hours. Little if any ice melt is likely to occur into the evening hours, so many slick areas will remain on roads, particularly those which are not treated and have little traffic. We would continue to advise that travel be limited to urgent situations even after the precipitation has ended, so as to allow time for ice melt to occur as road treatment occurs and/or sufficient time passes.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Conditions are beginning to deteriorate from North to South across the area...

...Expected Local Impacts by Category...
Transportation: Widespread
Power: Isolated-Scattered
Tree Damage: Isolated

Impact categories and definitions:
Isolated: less than 25 percent of the category may be impacted
Scattered: 25-40 percent of the category may be impacted
Regional: 40-60 percent of the category may be impacted
Widespread: greater than 60 percent of the category may be impacted

...Overview and Timing...
Freezing drizzle and periods of freezing rain and/or sleet will continue to develop/increase across the local area through the morning hours. If you like to watch weather radar during these types of events, it is very important to keep in mind that freezing drizzle is not detectable by weather radar as the precipitation droplets are too small. Many areas that seem to show "no precipitation" on radar are actually receiving a freezing mist or freezing drizzle, which over time creates an ice glazing condition just like freezing rain will do.

As temperatures continue to fall this morning, the precipitation will likely change mainly to sleet and/or a sleet/snow combination from near 9-10am into the midday/early afternoon hours. Present indications suggest that measurable precipitation will end from Northwest to Southeast across the area by 2-3pm.

Elevated roadways such as bridges, overpasses, etc., will see deteriorating conditions first this morning, followed by some secondary and/or lesser traveled roadways (especially in areas that receive more freezing rain vs. simply freezing drizzle). We are already seeing rapidly deteriorating conditions in the Austin metro area at this time, especially on the elevated/flyover roadways including several accidents and some road closures. Temperatures were colder in that area first, so we are likely to see similarly deteriorating conditions across the remainder of the local area as temperatures continue to fall into the morning hours.

...Ice Accumulation Forecast...
Ice accumulation of up to 0.1 inch is expected with this event, most of which will likely occur before 9-10am. If more sleet begins to mix in with the precipitation toward mid-morning, then this amount could be lower in some parts of the area. On the other hand, locations that receive more frequent periods of freezing rain early to mid morning could see slightly higher amounts in spots as well.
Ice accumulation of up to 0.1 inch would mainly form a light glaze on exposed surfaces, especially metallic surfaces, colder elevated surfaces such as bridges, overpasses, etc., (especially if they are untreated), and roadways that are lesser traveled and/or untreated. Tree limbs and exposed power lines may also start to see a light glaze-over especially if the near 0.1 inch ice amounts are realized.

...Sleet and/or Snow Accumulation Forecast...
A combined sleet/snow accumulation of up to 0.5 inch is possible in some parts of the area. This would most likely occur from near 9-10am through about 1-2pm, with decreasing amounts into the mid-afternoon hours. The sleet and/or snow will be able to accumulate more rapidly on surfaces that have a light ice glaze from earlier in the morning hours.

...Transportation Impacts - Widespread...
Transportation impacts are likely to reach "widespread" status across much of the local area with this event. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will be impacted first, followed by some lesser traveled/untreated surface roadways depending upon the extent of any heavier precipitation (i.e., freezing rain vs. simply freezing drizzle). Please also note that although accumulating winter precipitation will end during the early to mid-afternoon hours today, temperatures will remain well below freezing into tonight and much of Wednesday. This could result in icy patches and/or localized areas of ice to remain well after the precipitation has ended in some parts of the area.

...Power Impacts - Isolated-Scattered...
Power impacts are expected to reach "isolated-scattered" status across the local area with this event. Areas with exposed power lines would be most vulnerable, and especially if any concentrated spots of even slightly more than 0.1 inch ice accumulation are observed in those areas. North winds will continue to gust at 25-35 mph throughout much of the day today, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs and where there is more open exposure to a Northerly wind.

...Impacts on Trees - Isolated...
Impacts on trees are expected to reach "isolated' status across the local area with this event. Ice glazing of up to 0.1 inch does not typically cause significant issues with downing of tree limbs, so this would primarily be of concern in any areas that may receive slightly more than 0.1 inch of glaze, and on any trees that were in poor condition to begin with. North winds will continue to gust 25-35 mph throughout the day today, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs and where there is more open exposure to a Northerly wind.

...Other Impacts...
Please note that in addition to hazardous conditions that are expected as a result of wintry precipitation, cold temperatures and bitter cold Wind Chills will also create additional hazards throughout this period and extending into Wednesday as well as portions of Thursday. Please refer to the latest update of the Wind Chill Advisory product for additional details on this aspect of the storm system.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Cold front on the way - precipitation will follow close behind...

...For the period now until 6am Tuesday...

Rain showers will develop and/or increase across the local area from now through 11pm and then continue through about 3-4am.

Winds will shift to the North and increase to 25 mph sustained with frequent gusts of 30-40 mph between 9pm and 11pm this evening as a strong cold front moves from North to South across the area.  Temperatures will fall to around freezing across most of the area by around 4am, and precipitation will begin to mix with freezing rain, sleet and/or snow at that time.

Light ice accumulation may begin as early as 4-5am, and is likely to continue to increase through dawn.  Icy spots are likely to develop on elevated surfaces first (i.e., bridges, overpasses, etc.), and then begin to develop on other surfaces especially toward dawn.

...Looking ahead to after 6am Tuesday...

Periods of freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet and/or light snow will continue through 9-10am, and then change mostly to sleet and/or snow from 9-10am through 12 Noon.  Additional ice and/or sleet/snow accumulation is expected during the morning hours.  Please refer to the last full blog post for additional details on the Tuesday daytime hours.

Wintry precip will begin 2-3 hours before dawn on Tuesday, and increase thereafter...

...Expected Local Impacts by Category...
Transportation: Widespread
Power: Scattered
Tree Damage: Isolated

Impact categories and definitions:
Isolated: less than 25 percent of the category may be impacted
Scattered: 25-40 percent of the category may be impacted
Regional: 40-60 percent of the category may be impacted
Widespread: greater than 60 percent of the category may be impacted

...Overview and Timing...
We continue to forecast that significant impacts from a combination of ice, sleet and/or snow are likely across the entire area on Tuesday. This will not be the "typical" event for the local area for two reasons: (1). The precipitation will occur over a broad time period throughout the day on Tuesday, rather than just a brief period early in the morning and (2). Accumulation amounts, particularly of sleet and/or snow, are likely to be higher than we normally see with local winter weather events.

Periods of light rain will mix with and then change to a mixture of sleet, freezing rain and possibly light snow by around 4-5am on Tuesday morning. Northern parts of the area will see the change first, followed by Southern areas last. Please note that it may take 1-2 hours for ice accumulation to begin after the wintry precipitation has begun, and elevated roadways are likely to see accumulation begin first. Present indications suggest that the wintry mix will then increase into the morning hours.

Temperatures are expected to fall to around freezing by around 4am on Tuesday, and continue to slowly fall into the remainder of the daytime hours. After about 10am, readings will mainly be in the middle to upper 20s throughout the remainder of the day. As temperatures continue to fall during the morning hours, the mixed precipitation that is expected from 4 or 5am through about 10am will change mostly to sleet and/or light snow during the mid to late morning hours and continue into the afternoon hours.

...Ice Accumulation Forecast...
Ice accumulation of up to 0.1 inch is expected with this event, most of which will likely occur from around 5-6am through about 10am. If more sleet begins to mix in with the precipitation toward mid-morning, then this amount could be lower in some parts of the area. On the other hand, if less sleet mixes in by mid-morning, then the ice amounts could be slightly higher in some parts of the area.

Ice accumulation of up to 0.1 inch would mainly form a light glaze on exposed surfaces, especially metallic surfaces, colder elevated surfaces such as bridges, overpasses, etc., (especially if they are untreated), and roadways that are lesser traveled and/or untreated. Tree limbs and exposed power lines may also start to see a light glaze-over especially if the near 0.1 inch ice amounts are realized.

...Sleet and/or Snow Accumulation Forecast...
A combined sleet/snow accumulation of up to 1.0 inch is expected with this event. This would most likely occur from around or shortly after 10am through about 4-5pm on Tuesday, with decreasing amounts into the late afternoon and early evening hours. If the glaze ice accumulation occurs as expected (see above), the sleet and/or snow would be able to accumulate on most any exposed surface that has a glaze of ice, including many roadways, and especially those that are untreated.

...Transportation Impacts - Widespread...
Transportation impacts are likely to reach "widespread" status across the local area with this event. Impacts will begin on Tuesday morning and increase throughout the day. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses would likely be impacted first, followed by the lesser traveled/untreated surface roadways and then other roadways depending upon the extent of the heavier precipitation, amount of traffic on the roads, and the type of treatment the roads are receiving (if any). Please also note that although accumulating winter precipitation will end by late on Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will remain well below freezing into Tuesday night and much of Wednesday. Unless direct treatment of the roadways is applied, many of them (particularly those less traveled) will remain icy well after the precipitation has ended.

...Power Impacts - Scattered...
Power impacts are expected to reach "scattered" status across the local area with this event. Areas with exposed power lines would be most vulnerable, and especially if any concentrated spots of even slightly more than 0.1 inch ice accumulation are observed in those areas. North winds will gust 25-35 mph throughout much of the day on Tuesday, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs and where there is more open exposure to a Northerly wind.

...Impacts on Trees - Isolated...
Impacts on trees are expected to reach "isolated' status across the local area with this event. Ice glazing of up to 0.1 inch does not typically cause significant issues with downing of tree limbs, so this would primarily be of concern in any areas that may receive slightly more than 0.1 inch of glaze, and on any trees that were in poor condition to begin with. North winds will gust 25-35 mph throughout much of the day on Tuesday, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs and where there is more open exposure to a Northerly wind.

...What are the Main Areas of Uncertainty?...
With most winter weather events across the local area, the usual area of uncertainty is whether or not temperatures will reach freezing, allowing the precipitation to turn into ice, sleet or snow. We will not have this issue in this case, as temperatures will definitely reach freezing, and fall a considerable degree below freezing as well on Tuesday morning. The main question in this case then becomes the precipitation type. If temperatures get colder faster than expected, we'd have more sleet and/or snow and less ice glazing. Neither scenario is a "good" one, with possibly the only exception being we would potentially see less impact from scattered power outages if we have less ice and more sleet/snow. In either case, transportation impacts will be high, so there seems little reason to split hairs on precipitation type at this time. The only other variable with some amount of uncertainty in this case has to do with the timing of the ending of the precipitation. In general, the precipitation will likely decrease in coverage and/or intensity during the afternoon hours. Whether or not this decrease is gradual or abrupt, it would be during the afternoon hours, not the morning hours. Therefore, we won't be dealing with the usual situation of an "early morning only" type event like we typically see in our area.

...Other Impacts...
Please note that in addition to hazardous conditions that are expected as a result of wintry precipitation, cold temperatures and bitter cold Wind Chills will also create additional hazards throughout this period and extending into Wednesday as well as portions of Thursday. 


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for Now thru Midnight Tonight

...For the period now until 12 Midnight tonight...

Isolated to widely scattered showers may begin to develop as early as around or shortly after 4pm, but especially toward and after 6pm. Showers are then expected to increase in coverage as we move into the mid to late evening hours today.

Temperatures will remain above freezing through Midnight tonight, therefore no wintry precipitation is expected through Midnight tonight.

A strong cold front will move through the area generally between 9pm and 11pm this evening. Winds will shift to the North and gust to 30-40 mph behind the front for a period of 2-3 hours, then mainly gust in the 25-35 mph range into the overnight hours. Temperatures will begin to drop rapidly behind the front, falling from the middle to upper 50s at 9pm to the middle to upper 30s by Midnight across most of the area.

...Looking ahead to after 12 Midnight tonight...

Temperatures will continue to fall overnight and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, and precipitation will continue to increase as well. As temperatures approach and then fall below freezing during the pre-dawn hours, the precipitation will mix with and then change to freezing rain, sleet and/or snow. Please refer to the latest update to the Wintry Mix Warning for additional details on later time periods and expected impacts.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Expect significant problems from wintry precipitation, cold temperatures and wind on Tuesday...

...Expected Local Impacts by Category...
Transportation: Widespread
Power: Scattered
Tree Damage: Isolated

Impact categories and definitions:
Isolated: less than 25 percent of the category may be impacted
Scattered: 25-40 percent of the category may be impacted
Regional: 40-60 percent of the category may be impacted
Widespread: greater than 60 percent of the category may be impacted

...Overview and Timing...
We continue to forecast that significant impacts from a combination of ice, sleet and/or snow are likely across the entire area on Tuesday. This will not be the "typical" event for the local area for two reasons: (1). The precipitation will occur over a broad time period throughout the day on Tuesday, rather than just a brief period early in the morning and (2). Accumulation amounts, particularly of sleet and/or snow, are likely to be higher than we normally see with local winter weather events.

Periods of light rain will mix with and then change to a mixture of sleet, freezing rain and possibly light snow by around 5-6am on Tuesday morning. Northern parts of the area will see the change first, followed by Southern areas last. Present indications suggest that this mix will then increase into the morning hours.

Temperatures are expected to fall to around freezing by 5-6am on Tuesday, and continue to slowly fall into the remainder of the daytime hours. After about 10am, readings will mainly be in the middle to upper 20s throughout the remainder of the day. As temperatures continue to fall during the morning hours, the mixed precipitation that is expected from 5 or 6am through about 10am will change mostly to sleet and/or light snow during the late morning hours and continue into the afternoon hours.

...Ice Accumulation Forecast...
Ice accumulation of up to 0.1 inch is expected with this event, most of which will likely occur from around 6am through about 10am. If more sleet begins to mix in with the precipitation toward mid-morning, then this amount could be lower in some parts of the area. On the other hand, if less sleet mixes in by mid-morning, then the amounts could be slightly higher in some parts of the area.

Ice accumulation of up to 0.1 inch would mainly form a light glaze on exposed surfaces, especially metallic surfaces, colder elevated surfaces such as bridges, overpasses, etc., (especially if they are untreated), and roadways that are lesser traveled and/or untreated. Tree limbs and exposed power lines may also start to see a light glaze-over especially if the near 0.1 inch ice amounts are realized.

...Sleet and/or Snow Accumulation Forecast...
A combined sleet/snow accumulation of up to 1.0 inch is expected with this event. This would most likely occur from around or shortly after 10am through about 6pm on Tuesday, with decreasing amounts into the early-mid evening hours. If the glaze ice accumulation occurs as expected (see above), the sleet and/or snow would be able to accumulate on most any exposed surface that has a glaze of ice, including many roadways, and especially those that are untreated.

...Transportation Impacts - Widespread...
Transportation impacts are likely to reach "widespread" status across the local area with this event. Impacts will begin on Tuesday morning and increase throughout the day. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses would likely be impacted first, followed by the lesser traveled/untreated surface roadways and then other roadways depending upon the extent of the heavier precipitation, amount of traffic on the roads, and the type of treatment the roads are receiving (if any). Please also note that although accumulating winter precipitation will end early on Tuesday evening, temperatures will remain well below freezing into Tuesday night and much of Wednesday. Unless direct treatment of the roadways is applied, many of them (particularly those less traveled) will remain icy well after the precipitation has ended.

...Power Impacts - Scattered...
Power impacts are expected to reach "scattered" status across the local area with this event. Areas with exposed power lines would be most vulnerable, and especially if any concentrated spots of even slightly more than 0.1 inch ice accumulation are observed in those areas. North winds will gust 25-30 mph throughout much of the day on Tuesday, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs and where there is more open exposure to a Northerly wind.

...Impacts on Trees - Isolated...
Impacts on trees are expected to reach "isolated' status across the local area with this event. Ice glazing of up to 0.1 inch does not typically cause significant issues with downing of tree limbs, so this would primarily be of concern in any areas that may receive slightly more than 0.1 inch of glaze, and on any trees that were in poor condition to begin with. North winds will gust 25-30 mph throughout much of the day on Tuesday, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs and where there is more open exposure to a Northerly wind.

...Other Impacts...
Please note that in addition to hazardous conditions that are expected as a result of wintry precipitation, cold temperatures and bitter cold Wind Chills will also create additional hazardous throughout this period and extending into Wednesday as well as portions of Thursday. 


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Another round of wintry precipitation is possible on Thursday morning...

We are monitoring a developing weather situation for the pre-dawn and early morning hours of Thursday. Confidence in this situation is low to moderate, as we're only in the initial monitoring stages, but this situation does bear close watching as we move through the next few days.

At this time we expect periods of light freezing drizzle, light freezing rain and/or sleet are possible during the pre-dawn and early morning hours on Thursday. The precipitation should begin between Midnight and 3am on Thursday morning, and continue through about 8-9am. Temperatures will be below freezing from Midnight to 9am, and are then expected to moderate above freezing starting around 9am on Thursday morning. Therefore, we would expect any wintry precipitation to change back to light rain starting around 9am on Thursday.

At this early stage of evaluating the situation, present indications suggest that patchy light ice and/or sleet accumulation is possible in at least some parts of the local area with this event. The best potential for such accumulation would likely be between 3am and 8am on Thursday morning, based on present temperature indications.


This is a developing weather situation with much uncertainty still involved. We will continue to monitor the latest trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.

A High Impact Winter Weather Event is Likely Area-Wide on Tuesday

Confidence continues to increase that significant impacts from a combination of ice, sleet and/or snow are likely across the entire area on Tuesday. This will not be the "typical" event for the local area for two reasons: (1). The precipitation will occur over a broad time period throughout the day on Tuesday, rather than just a brief period early in the morning and (2). Accumulation amounts, particularly of sleet and/or snow, are likely to be higher than we normally see with local winter weather events.

Periods of light rain will mix with and then change to a mixture of sleet, freezing rain and possibly light snow starting around 6am on Tuesday morning. Present indications suggest that this mix will then increase into the morning hours.

Temperatures are expected to fall to near/around freezing by 6-7am on Tuesday, and continue to slowly fall into the remainder of the daytime hours, reaching the middle 20s during the evening hours. As temperatures continue to fall during the day, the mixed precipitation that is expected during the morning hours will change mostly to light snow during the afternoon hours. Some periods of sleet may still mix with the snow at times during the afternoon.

...Ice Accumulation Forecast...
Ice accumulation of up to around 0.1 inch is expected with this event, most of which will likely occur from after 6am through about 12 Noon. Depending upon how much of the mixed precipitation on Tuesday morning falls as freezing rain vs. the other types, some spots could see greater than 0.1 inch but likely less than 0.2 inch of ice accumulation during that same time period.

Ice accumulation of around 0.1 inch would mainly form a light glaze on exposed surfaces, especially metallic surfaces, colder elevated surfaces such as bridges, overpasses, etc., (especially if they are untreated), and roadways that are lesser traveled and/or untreated. Tree limbs and exposed power lines may also start to see a glaze-over especially if the near 0.1 inch ice amounts are realized. In those spots that receive slightly more than 0.1 inch of glaze, tree limbs would glaze over on an increasing basis, and other surfaces would begin to be coated as well, including a greater expansion on power lines.

...Sleet and/or Snow Accumulation Forecast...
Sleet and/or a combined sleet/snow accumulation of up to around 1.0 inch is expected with this event. This would most likely occur from after 12 Noon through about 6pm on Tuesday, with decreasing amounts into the early-mid evening hours. If the glaze ice accumulation occurs as expected (see above), the sleet and/or snow would be able to accumulate on most any exposed surface that has a glaze of ice, including many roadways, and especially those that are untreated.

...Transportation Impacts - Widespread...
Transportation impacts are likely to reach "widespread" status across the local area with this event. Impacts will begin on Tuesday morning and increase throughout the day. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses would likely be impacted first, followed by the lesser traveled/untreated surface roadways and then other roadways depending upon the extent of the heavier precipitation, amount of traffic on the roads, and the type of treatment the roads are receiving (if any).

...Power Impacts - Scattered to Regional...
Power impacts are expected to reach "scattered to regional" status across the local area with this event. Areas with exposed power lines would be most vulnerable, and especially if any concentrated spots of greater than 0.1 inch ice accumulation are observed in those areas. North winds will gust 25-30 mph throughout much of the day on Tuesday, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs.

...Impacts on Trees - Isolated to Scattered...
Impacts on trees are expected to reach "isolated to scattered' status across the local area with this event. Ice glazing of up to 0.1 inch does not typically cause significant issues with downing of tree limbs, so this would primarily be of concern in areas that may receive slightly more than 0.1 inch of glaze, and on any trees that were in poor condition to begin with. North winds will gust 25-30 mph throughout much of the day on Tuesday, and this could aggravate the condition at times in at least parts of the area, especially where the higher end of the ice accumulation occurs.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Winter Weather Situation Appears Probable for Tuesday...

We are continuing to closely monitor a developing winter weather situation for Tuesday of next week. We are becoming increasingly confident that this situation may cause travel and other impacts for possibly significant portions of the area during the day on Tuesday. Please see below for details:

Periods of light rain are expected to mix with and then change to a mixture of sleet, freezing rain and possibly light snow starting around 6am on Tuesday morning. Present indications suggest that this mix will then continue into the afternoon hours before decreasing in coverage and intensity between 3pm and 6pm.

Temperatures on Tuesday will range from a high of 48 during the pre-dawn hours (about 1am) to a low of 27 by 9pm on Tuesday, as temperatures are expected to fall throughout the daytime hours. Hence the forecast increase in the potential coverage (and intensity) of wintry precipitation on Tuesday vs. the last update.

Present indications suggest that ice accumulation of up to 0.1 inch is possible with this event. Ice accumulation of this amount would mainly form a light glaze on exposed surfaces, especially metallic surfaces and colder elevated surfaces such as bridges, overpasses, etc., (especially if they are untreated). Tree limbs may also start to see a glaze-over especially if the near 0.1 inch ice amounts are realized. Most of the light ice accumulation would likely occur on Tuesday morning, based on present indications.

In addition to the potential for light ice glazing, present indications suggest that sleet and/or a combined sleet/snow accumulation of up to 0.5 inch is possible with this event. This would most likely occur on Tuesday afternoon, based on present indications.

Transportation impacts appear increasingly likely across many parts of the local area beginning Tuesday morning and possibly continuing into much of the daytime hours if temperatures continue to fall and precipitation continues to be produced across the area as described above. At this time we would describe such conditions as "probable".


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

A cold start for the first day back to school (for many) tomorrow...

Bitter cold Wind Chill values of 15 to 25 degrees are likely from Midnight tonight through about 8-9am on Thursday morning. Within that time period, minimum Wind Chill values will average around 15 degrees from roughly 5:30-7:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Many area schools will resume classes on Thursday. It will be important to advise parents to ensure that children are properly dressed for the cold, especially if they must wait for a bus or spend other significant amounts of time outdoors early on Thursday morning.

Anyone who must be outside for extended time periods during the Advisory period should take precautions to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the cold temperatures and bitter cold Wind Chills. We recommend wearing loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears. For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the Advisory period, and especially during the periods of minimum Wind Chills noted above.

Present indications suggest that Wind Chill values will moderate into the upper 20s to lower 30s from 9am-11am on Thursday, and then into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Thursday afternoon.

Bitter cold wind chills likely for the Thursday morning rush period...

Bitter cold Wind Chill values of 15 to 25 degrees are likely from 3am to 9am on Thursday morning. Within that time period, minimum Wind Chill values will average around 15 degrees from roughly 5:30-7:30 a.m.

Many area schools will resume classes on Thursday. It will be important to advise parents to ensure that children are properly dressed for the cold, especially if they must wait for a bus or spend other significant amounts of time outdoors early on Thursday morning.

Anyone who must be outside for extended time periods during the above mentioned time period should take precautions to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the cold temperatures and bitter cold Wind Chills. We recommend wearing loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears. For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the above mentioned time period, and especially during the periods of minimum Wind Chills noted above.

Present indications suggest that Wind Chill values will moderate into the upper 20s to lower 30s from 9am-11am on Thursday, and then into the upper 30s to lower 40s by Thursday afternoon. 

Some scattered light wintry precipitation possible especially in Hays County this afternoon. Cold continues area-wide thru Wednesday a.m.

An influx of cold, arctic air will result in a continued extended period of cold air temperatures and bitterly cold Wind Chill values across the local region through Wednesday morning.  Some patchy light wintry precipitation is also possible mainly in central/southern parts of the local area on Monday afternoon.  Please see below for details on all expected impacts and timing elements.

...Wind Chill Impacts...

Wind Chill values will continue to average the teens to lower 20s through about 10-11am on Wednesday.  Within this broad time period, minimum Wind Chill values will average around 10 degrees around sunrise on both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

If you must be outside for extended time periods during the above mentioned time period, precautions should continue to be taken to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the colder temperatures.  We recommend wearing loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears.  For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the above mentioned time period, and especially during the periods of minimum Wind Chills noted above.

...Temperature Impacts...

In addition to the concern due to bitterly cold Wind Chills, actual air temperatures will continue to be quite cold during the same time period.  Below are the forecast minimum and maximum air temperatures forecast for Today-Wednesday (on average for the local area):
Day:            Low/High
Today:          22/31
Tuesday:      20/32
Wednesday:  18/48

Actual air temperatures will remain at or below the freezing mark at most locations through about 10am on Wednesday.  This will have been a total of approximately 62-hours with freezing or sub-freezing temperatures (since around 8pm on Sunday at most locations).  While it is not unusual for the area to experience freezing or sub-freezing temperatures for at least brief time periods in the winter, it is very unusual for the area to experience freezing or sub-freezing readings for such a long time period (i.e., 60+ hours), which is the reason that we continue to call attention to this particular aspect of the cold air event.

Precautions should continue to be taken to prevent freezing and/or bursting of pipes, particularly in older and/or poorly insulated structures during the above mentioned time period.  To mitigate the risk of frozen pipes, we recommend allowing the cold water drip from the faucet served by exposed pipes.  Running water through the pipe - even at a trickle - helps prevent pipes from freezing.  It is also a good idea to keep the thermostat set to the same temperature both during the day and at night to avoid fluctuations in the air temperature surrounding the exposed pipes.

...Precipitation Impacts...

A weak weather disturbance will continue to track mainly to the South of the local area today, producing a mixture of light freezing rain, sleet and light snow to the south of the local area, including the San Antonio area, for much of the daytime hours today.  Caution is advised if travel is required South into that area today.

For the immediate local area...present indications suggest that the Northern edge of the aforementioned area of wintry precipitation may begin to work Northward especially into parts of the local area this afternoon.  At this time the most favored area for such a possibility includes most of Hays County and would be from near/shortly after 12 Noon through about 6pm today.  Any wintry precipitation by that time would likely be in the form of at least patchy areas of freezing drizzle, ice pellets (sleet) and/or snow flurries.  

At this time significant accumulation of wintry precipitation is not expected across the local area this afternoon, due to the expected short duration, light intensity and expected spotty to scattered coverage of the precipitation.  With that said, we will continue monitoring precipitation and temperature trends this afternoon and will issue any specific updates if conditions warrant.  Out of an abundance of caution, we would advise using care if travel is required especially in more rural areas where roads are less traveled during any periods of light precipitation this afternoon, particularly in southern parts of the local area as described above.

...Recap of Primary Local Concerns...

To recap, the primary local impacts from this event will continue to be the extended period of cold temperatures (including an unusually long period of sub-freezing temperatures) and wind chills.  Please continue to take appropriate precautions as noted above to minimize these impacts during the event.  We will continue monitoring the expected light wintry precipitation for the afternoon period today and issue updates as conditions warrant.