Thursday, April 12, 2018

Spotty a.m. Showers, Slight Chance of an Isolated p.m. T-Storm Friday....


Expected impacts:
  • Patchy areas of drizzle or very light rain are possible on Friday morning and a few spotty light showers cannot be ruled out
  • An isolated thunderstorm is possible mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night, but this would more likely occur to the East of I-35
  • If an isolated thunderstorm does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become strong, but again, this would most likely occur to the East of I-35
  • Isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible overnight Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday
Discussion:
Patchy areas of drizzle or very light rain are possible on Friday morning and a few spotty light rain showers cannot be ruled out. Most of this activity will be very light in intensity and somewhat spotty in nature, with any rainfall on Friday morning likely to average only a trace or few hundredths of an inch in the impacted locations.

The afternoon hours on Friday are likely to remain dry, but a spotty patch of very light rain cannot be completely ruled out.

By Friday evening...a boundary will approach the local a region from the West. An isolated thunderstorm is possible across the area as this boundary moves through, mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night. The probability of a thunderstorm developing across the local area during this time period is about 20 percent (or less), with higher probabilities to the East of I-35.

If an isolated thunderstorm does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become strong, with strong, gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would most likely occur to the East of I-35 during that time period.

Otherwise...isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible across the area overnight Friday night (after Midnight) into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning, behind the aforementioned boundary.

Please note: Strong, gusty winds will occur area-wide across the region on Saturday. 


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Friday, April 6, 2018

Update on Unusually Cold Conditions for Saturday...


Expected impacts:
  • An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am on Saturday morning
  • Scattered, mostly light rain showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning
  • Temperatures will fall from the lower 70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then hold there for much of the daytime hours on Saturday
  • Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the daytime hours on Saturday
Discussion:
A strong cold front will move from Northwest to Southeast across the local area from 10pm this evening to 2am on Saturday. Behind the front across the local area, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am on Saturday morning. While the chance of a thunderstorm developing is less than 20 percent, if a thunderstorm does form it could produce gusty winds and/or hail in the isolated area that would be affected. This is more likely to occur further to the East of the local area overnight tonight, based on present indications.

Otherwise, scattered, mostly light rain showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning across the local area. Temperatures will fall from the lower 70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then hold there for much of the daytime hours on Saturday.

Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the daytime hours on Saturday. Due to the unusual nature of such an event for this time of year, precautions should be taken if outdoor activities are planned for Saturday. Conditions will be more representative of a January or February cold front, vs. the type we normally see in April.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Thursday, April 5, 2018

Unusually cold conditions likely for Saturday...


Expected impacts:
  • An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly from after 10pm on Friday through 6am on Saturday
  • Gusty North winds, much cooler temperatures and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected during the day on Saturday
  • Daytime temperatures on Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the local area
  • Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the day on Saturday
Discussion:

An unusually strong cold front (for this time of year) will move from Northwest to Southeast across the local area starting late on Friday evening (likely after 10pm) into the early nighttime hours on Friday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the cold front, mainly from after 10pm on Friday through about 6am on Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will likely be more numerous to the East of the local area during the overnight hours on Friday night and the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning.

If an isolated thunderstorm were to manage to develop locally during the above time period, it could produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, at this time any such activity is likely to be very isolated in nature (if it forms at all), with the probability of any given location being impacted at less than 20 percent.

Behind the cold front on Saturday, gusty North winds, much cooler temperatures and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected. Daytime temperatures on Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the local area. Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during the day on Saturday.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Thunderstorms Possible With a Cold Front Later Today...


Expected impacts:
  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly between 6pm and 10pm today
  • An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the same time period
  • Thunderstorm activity will likely be more numerous, and stronger, to the East of I-35 during the same time period (and also afterward)
Discussion:


A cold front will move into the local area late this afternoon into this evening, causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly between 6pm and 10pm.

An isolated stronger thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during this time, which could produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in at least some parts of the local region. At this time it appears that, for the local area, any such activity will likely develop behind the cold front, which would tend to mitigate the potential for "severe" weather somewhat. The probability of severe storms will be higher (in both number and intensity) to the East of the area, to the East of I-35, where thunderstorms are more likely to develop along or ahead of the cold front.

Behind the front, breezy and much cooler conditions can be expected across the area for tonight into the day on Wednesday.