Expected impacts:
- Widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible across the area today with coverage of
around 30 percent likely at any given time
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely from around Midnight or shortly after tonight
through about 9am on Tuesday
- Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible from 9am to 6pm on Tuesday
- Locally heavy rainfall is
likely at times with thunderstorms, especially tonight into early Tuesday
morning
- Additional rainfall of around 1
inch is likely with localized amounts of 1-2 inches possible in some parts
of the area, which is likely to cause minor flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas at times during the period
Details:
...Today and This Evening...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. Coverage will likely
average 30 percent throughout most of the period. Generally brief but locally
heavy downpours of rain and lightning are possible with any isolated
thunderstorms.
...Midnight Tonight thru 9am Tuesday...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely from around Midnight or 1am
tonight through about 8 or 9am Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected
at times during the period, and cloud to ground lightning can be expected with
any thunderstorms. Mostly minor flooding of low water crossings and similar
flood prone areas can be expected in at least some parts of the area in
association with this activity.
There will also be a risk for gusty winds as the (expected) main band of thunderstorms
initially approaches the area between Midnight tonight and 2am Tuesday. Present
indications suggest the strongest winds will be to the immediate South of the
local area, but we'll continue to monitor trends closely as the situation
evolves.
...9am Tuesday to 6pm Tuesday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the daytime hours on
Tuesday. Coverage will likely average 30 percent in the morning (after 9am) and
then 40 percent during the afternoon hours. Generally brief but locally heavy
downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any thunderstorms.
Total Rainfall for the Period:
Additional rainfall of around 1 inch is likely with localized amounts of 1-2
inches possible in some parts of the area, the majority of which will occur
from Midnight tonight to 9am Tuesday.
Remainder of the Week:
A relative lull in precipitation (with mostly just spotty activity) is expected
for Wednesday and Thursday, and then increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected again toward Friday and into next weekend.
Synopsis:
- Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the area this evening, especially
toward/after 8pm, with locally heavy downpours possible in the affected
areas
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely from around 10pm or shortly after this evening
through about 6am on Monday, with locally heavy rainfall likely and
strong, gusty winds possible initially
- Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible during the daytime and evening hours on Monday
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely from around 2-3am Tuesday through about 9am
Tuesday, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times during the period
- Widespread rainfall of 1-2
inches is likely with localized amounts of 2-3 inches possible in some parts
of the area, which may lead to at least minor flooding of low lying and
poor drainage areas at times during the period
Details:
...Now through 10pm This Evening...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area this evening,
especially toward/after 8pm, with locally heavy downpours possible in the
affected areas. An isolated stronger thunderstorm could also produce gusty
winds and/or hail in the affected portion(s) of the area, again, especially
toward/after 8pm.
...10pm This Evening thru 6am Monday Morning...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely. Locally heavy rainfall can be
expected at times during the period, and cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with any thunderstorms. As the initial main line of thunderstorms
approaches a given location late this evening/early tonight (generally between
10pm and 1am), strong, gusty winds are possible in parts of the area.
Minor flooding of some of the typically more vulnerable low water crossings and
similar flood prone areas is possible in at least some parts of the area,
particularly near/adjacent to areas where downpours are more persistent.
...Daytime and Evening Hours on Monday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the daytime and evening
hours on Monday. Coverage will likely average 40 percent throughout most of the
period. Generally brief but locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are
likely with any thunderstorms.
...2am Tuesday through 9am Tuesday...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely from around 2-3am Tuesday
through about 9am Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected at times
during the period, and cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any
thunderstorms. Mostly minor flooding of low water crossings and similar flood
prone areas is possible in at least some parts of the area. This will be of
greatest concern in areas that also receive heavy rainfall on Sunday
night/Monday morning.
...9am Tuesday to 6pm Tuesday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the daytime and evening
hours on Monday. Coverage will likely average 40 percent throughout most of the
period. Generally brief but locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are
likely with any thunderstorms.
Total Rainfall for the Period:Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely with localized amounts of 2-3
inches possible in some parts of the area.
Remainder of the Week:
Please be aware that periods of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity are
expected again on Wednesday and especially on Thursday and Friday of this week.
Depending upon how much rainfall is received beforehand, any additional heavy
rainfall during the middle and latter portions of the week could further
aggravate the low land flooding potential across the area, and this will need
to continue to be monitored closely.
Synopsis/Key Points:
- Isolated to widely spaced
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible at times during the day
today and into this evening
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely from around or shortly after Midnight tonight
through about 8am on Monday, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times
during the period
- Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible during the daytime and evening hours on Monday
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely from around 2-3am Tuesday through about 9am
Tuesday, with locally heavy rainfall possible at times during the period
- Widespread rainfall of 1-2
inches is likely with localized amounts of 2-3 inches possible in some
parts of the area, which may lead to at least minor flooding of low lying
and poor drainage areas at times during the period
Details by Time Period:
...Today and This Evening...
Isolated to widely spaced showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible at
times during the day today and into this evening. Coverage of the activity will
likely average 30 percent at any given time, possibly reaching 40 percent
during peak afternoon heating. Generally brief but locally heavy downpours of
rain and lightning are likely with any isolated thunderstorms.
...Midnight Tonight to 8am Monday Morning...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely from around or shortly after
Midnight tonight through about 8am on Monday. Locally heavy rainfall can be
expected at times during the period, and cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with any thunderstorms. Minor flooding of some of the typically more
vulnerable low water crossings and similar flood prone areas is possible in at
least some parts of the area, particularly near/adjacent to areas where
downpours are more persistent.
...Daytime and Evening Hours on Monday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the daytime and evening
hours on Monday. Coverage will likely average 40 percent throughout most of the
period. Generally brief but locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are
likely with any thunderstorms.
...2am Tuesday through 9am Tuesday...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely from around 2-3am Tuesday
through about 9am Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected at times
during the period, and cloud to ground lightning can be expected with any
thunderstorms. Mostly minor flooding of low water crossings and similar flood
prone areas is possible in at least some parts of the area. This will be of
greatest concern in areas that also receive heavy rainfall on Sunday
night/Monday morning.
...9am Tuesday to 6pm Tuesday...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the daytime and evening
hours on Monday. Coverage will likely average 40 percent throughout most of the
period. Generally brief but locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are
likely with any thunderstorms.
Total Rainfall for the Period:
Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely with localized amounts of 2-3
inches possible in some parts of the area.
Remainder of the Week:
Please be aware that periods of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity are
expected again on Wednesday and especially on Thursday and Friday of this week.
Depending upon how much rainfall is received beforehand, any additional heavy
rainfall during the middle and latter portions of the week could further
aggravate the low land flooding potential across the area, and this will need
to continue to be monitored closely.
- Thunderstorms are expected to
move West to East across the area from around 3am on Sunday morning
through about 6am on Sunday morning
- Locally heavy downpours of rain
and frequent lightning can be expected in association with all of this
activity
- As the activity initially
approaches a given location, strong to possibly damaging wind gusts are
possible, and some spotty instances of hail are also possible in some
parts of the area
- There is a non-zero chance of
an isolated tornado in some parts of the area, but this will strongly
depend on the structure of the activity as it approaches
...Timing and Likely Impacts...
Thunderstorms are expected to move West to East across the local area from
around 3am on Sunday morning through about 6am on Sunday morning. Locally heavy
downpours of rain and frequent lightning can be expected in association with
most all of this activity.
...Possible Wind and Hail Impacts...
As the activity initially approaches a given location, strong to possibly
damaging wind gusts may occur in at least some parts of the area. Spotty
instances of hail are also possible in some parts of the area, but strong,
gusty winds are likely to be the primary concern by the time the activity
reaches the local area based on present indications.
...Concerning the Possibility of an Isolated Tornado...
When thunderstorm activity initially develops to our West tonight, it will be
more isolated/cellular with respect to organization. During this phase, the
activity will have the greatest potential to produce a tornado, out to our West
over the Hill Country and toward the Big Bend region. As the activity moves
Eastward, present indications suggest that it will congeal into more of a band
or line, which will reduce the threat of a tornado. So, while a non-zero threat
of an isolated tornado does exist locally during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday
morning, if the activity congeals into a line or band prior to arrival as
currently expected, it will mainly pose a threat of strong to possibly damaging
wind gusts as it enters the local area.
...Primary Areas of Uncertainty...
Should the thunderstorm activity that forms to our West tonight not congeal
into a line or band before reaching our area during the pre-dawn hours of
Sunday morning, the threat of at least isolated tornado activity would increase
across the local area. While not currently expected to become a trend overall,
we will continue monitoring the situation closely.
...Exit of the Activity...
The thunderstorm activity is expected to shift East out of the area by around
6am or shortly afterward on Sunday morning.
We will continue monitoring the situation
and issue updates and/or specific alerts/warnings as conditions warrant.
