- Thunderstorms are expected to move West to East across the area from around 3am on Sunday morning through about 6am on Sunday morning
- Locally heavy downpours of rain and frequent lightning can be expected in association with all of this activity
- As the activity initially
approaches a given location, strong to possibly damaging wind gusts are
possible, and some spotty instances of hail are also possible in some
parts of the area
- There is a non-zero chance of
an isolated tornado in some parts of the area, but this will strongly
depend on the structure of the activity as it approaches
Thunderstorms are expected to move West to East across the local area from around 3am on Sunday morning through about 6am on Sunday morning. Locally heavy downpours of rain and frequent lightning can be expected in association with most all of this activity.
...Possible Wind and Hail Impacts...
As the activity initially approaches a given location, strong to possibly damaging wind gusts may occur in at least some parts of the area. Spotty instances of hail are also possible in some parts of the area, but strong, gusty winds are likely to be the primary concern by the time the activity reaches the local area based on present indications.
...Concerning the Possibility of an Isolated Tornado...
When thunderstorm activity initially develops to our West tonight, it will be more isolated/cellular with respect to organization. During this phase, the activity will have the greatest potential to produce a tornado, out to our West over the Hill Country and toward the Big Bend region. As the activity moves Eastward, present indications suggest that it will congeal into more of a band or line, which will reduce the threat of a tornado. So, while a non-zero threat of an isolated tornado does exist locally during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning, if the activity congeals into a line or band prior to arrival as currently expected, it will mainly pose a threat of strong to possibly damaging wind gusts as it enters the local area.
...Primary Areas of Uncertainty...
Should the thunderstorm activity that forms to our West tonight not congeal into a line or band before reaching our area during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning, the threat of at least isolated tornado activity would increase across the local area. While not currently expected to become a trend overall, we will continue monitoring the situation closely.
...Exit of the Activity...
The thunderstorm activity is expected to shift East out of the area by around 6am or shortly afterward on Sunday morning.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates and/or specific alerts/warnings as conditions warrant.
