We've seen quite a bit of chatter on social media and other outlets suggesting a threat of severe weather for the Austin area today or tonight. While this cannot be completely ruled out, it doesn't appear very likely to happen.
The primary reason that we expect the threat of severe weather to remain further to the North and/or West of the local region today and tonight is due to the continued presence of a strong "capping inversion" across the local area. While there will be a weak weather disturbance that will move near or through the local area late tonight and early Tuesday morning, it doesn't appear that the disturbance will be strong enough to "break the cap" and allow for extensive severe thunderstorm development locally.
We would generally expect to see some increase in showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms later tonight into early Tuesday morning as the weather disturbance mentioned above passes over or near the area, but this activity would not likely pose a severe weather threat locally based on present indications. We'll keep an eye on it though, and will issue any updates as warranted.
Our primary concern for potentially strong to severe thunderstorm activity across the local area continues to be from late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night and the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning.
The image below shows a computer model simulation of the weather radar valid at 9pm tomorrow:
As you can see, scattered to numerous thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, are forecast to be underway and/or increasing to our West, and this activity is likely to move East/Northeastward, possibly impacting significant portions of the local area near Midnight tomorrow night, as shown in the image below:
When looking at simulated radar forecasts, it's important not to take the position and intensity of the storms literally - just look at the general idea, which suggests increasing storms to our West in the evening hours on Tuesday, arriving locally by around Midnight (give or take an hour, roughly).
The primary concern with any strong to severe storms on Tuesday night (locally) would be strong, gusty winds and possibly some spotty hail (although the more significant hail threat would likely be higher further to our West and earlier in the evening hours).
Another concern for Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across the local area has to do with locally heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding problems in low lying or poor drainage areas across at least some parts of the region.
Of the average 2-3 inch rainfall that we expect to occur across most of the local region through Friday (as shown on the image above) about 50-60% of it is likely to occur on Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning (generally from 9pm Tuesday through 6am Wednesday).
If you have any travel plans late Tuesday evening through early Wednesday, especially in areas with low water crossings, use caution and allow for extra travel time. If we do see heavy rainfall that causes impacts to some low water crossings, those impacts could linger well into the morning rush on Wednesday, even 3-4 hours after the primary rainfall has ended.
Stay tuned here and on twitter and we'll keep you updated...
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