Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Later This Afternoon Into Tonight...

A cool front is moving slowly Southeastward into the local area from the Northwest at this time, and will continue to do so into the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/near this boundary across at least some parts of the local area from mainly toward 3-4pm into the early evening hours. Very heavy downpours of rain and lightning will be likely with any thunderstorms that form during this time period. Due to the expected slow movement of any such activity, the heavy downpours of rain could lead to ponding water and/or minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas in the affected parts of the area.

In addition, a few stronger storms could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in some parts of the local region during this same time period.

Please note: as we move into the mid and late evening hours today, the shower and thunderstorm activity may become more numerous at times. During this time period, periods of heavy downpours (and, of course, lightning) will become the primary concerns, and the potential for flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas may increase in some parts of the region due to repeat periods of heavy rainfall in at least some concentrated parts of the area. This activity will continue at times into tonight/pre-dawn Monday. 

Scattered Showers & Scattered T-Storms Possible on Saturday...

While we cannot rule out the development of an isolated shower or an isolated thunderstorm this evening or tonight, most of the activity will remain well to the West and to the North of the local area once again during that time period.

A band of thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop to our Northwest this evening...and move Southeastward along a weak cool frontal boundary. The activity is likely to both weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves toward the area during the morning hours on Saturday...but some scattered showers and/or a scattered thunderstorm may remain long enough to move into the local area generally after dawn, into the mid-morning hours.

The aforementioned cool frontal boundary is then forecast to stall out somewhere across the local region for the remainder of the daytime hours on Saturday. This may lead to additional scattered shower and/or scattered thunderstorm development in at least some parts of the area during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

As is typically the case, locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with most thunderstorm activity - regardless of coverage. In addition, a few isolated stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and/or hail in the affected areas. This would be more likely to occur with any scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

The extent and coverage of thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon has a lot to do with exactly where the cool front stalls out earlier in the morning and/or midday hours. Unfortunately, we will not know exactly where that will be until Saturday morning. If the boundary stalls to the South of the local area, then we would have lower chances of scattered storms locally during the afternoon hours. On the opposite side of the coin, if the boundary stalls right over the local area, then our chances for scattered storms will be greater on Saturday afternoon. We will monitor trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear on Saturday morning/midday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.