While we cannot rule out the development of an isolated shower or an
isolated thunderstorm this evening or tonight, most of the activity will remain
well to the West and to the North of the local area once again during that time
period.
A band of thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop to our Northwest this evening...and move Southeastward along a weak cool frontal boundary. The activity is likely to both weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves toward the area during the morning hours on Saturday...but some scattered showers and/or a scattered thunderstorm may remain long enough to move into the local area generally after dawn, into the mid-morning hours.
The aforementioned cool frontal boundary is then forecast to stall out somewhere across the local region for the remainder of the daytime hours on Saturday. This may lead to additional scattered shower and/or scattered thunderstorm development in at least some parts of the area during the afternoon hours on Saturday.
As is typically the case, locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with most thunderstorm activity - regardless of coverage. In addition, a few isolated stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and/or hail in the affected areas. This would be more likely to occur with any scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours on Saturday.
The extent and coverage of thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon has a lot to do with exactly where the cool front stalls out earlier in the morning and/or midday hours. Unfortunately, we will not know exactly where that will be until Saturday morning. If the boundary stalls to the South of the local area, then we would have lower chances of scattered storms locally during the afternoon hours. On the opposite side of the coin, if the boundary stalls right over the local area, then our chances for scattered storms will be greater on Saturday afternoon. We will monitor trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear on Saturday morning/midday.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
A band of thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop to our Northwest this evening...and move Southeastward along a weak cool frontal boundary. The activity is likely to both weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves toward the area during the morning hours on Saturday...but some scattered showers and/or a scattered thunderstorm may remain long enough to move into the local area generally after dawn, into the mid-morning hours.
The aforementioned cool frontal boundary is then forecast to stall out somewhere across the local region for the remainder of the daytime hours on Saturday. This may lead to additional scattered shower and/or scattered thunderstorm development in at least some parts of the area during the afternoon hours on Saturday.
As is typically the case, locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with most thunderstorm activity - regardless of coverage. In addition, a few isolated stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and/or hail in the affected areas. This would be more likely to occur with any scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours on Saturday.
The extent and coverage of thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon has a lot to do with exactly where the cool front stalls out earlier in the morning and/or midday hours. Unfortunately, we will not know exactly where that will be until Saturday morning. If the boundary stalls to the South of the local area, then we would have lower chances of scattered storms locally during the afternoon hours. On the opposite side of the coin, if the boundary stalls right over the local area, then our chances for scattered storms will be greater on Saturday afternoon. We will monitor trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear on Saturday morning/midday.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
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