Tropical Storm Harvey Local Update...

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Flooding Situation Today...
Periods of light to occasionally moderate rain likely before 9am and then becoming more scattered or occasional in nature during the rest of the day. Additional measurable rainfall will generally average 0.5-0.75 inch or so along/East of I-35 today and less than 0.5 inch West of I-35 today.

With continued light to moderate rain overnight last night especially along and East of I-35, many low water crossings and similar locations remain at or near flood stage. Caution is advised if travel is required in such areas this morning as water slowly recedes. Conditions should improve more rapidly starting during the midday and afternoon hours.

...Local Wind Impacts Today...
Northerly winds will average 15-25 mph for much of the day, decreasing into the 10-20 mph range by mid to late afternoon.

...Outlook for Tuesday and Wednesday...
The center of Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to emerge out over the Gulf of Mexico today and recurve Northeast toward the Galveston area later Tuesday into Wednesday. On this track, all of the widespread precipitation will remain to the East of the local area - further to the East of I-35. For the local area, we could see scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity mainly from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Coverage if this activity is only expected to average 30-40 percent, so not all locations are necessarily expected to receive rain, and significant/widespread impacts from rainfall do not appear likely locally at this time.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update Now thru 12 Noon...

Periods of light to occasionally moderate rain will continue through 9am and will then start to become more scattered to occasional in nature.

Additional average rainfall amounts of less than 0.5 inch can be expected this morning along/East of I-35 and less than 0.25 inch West of I-35.

We advise extreme caution if travel is required into low lying/poor drainage areas as high water may remain in some areas into the morning hours from previous flooding.

Northerly winds will continue generally in the 15-25 mph range this morning.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 7am Monday...

Widespread light to moderate rain will continue into the early part of the overnight hours. The widespread rain will gradually taper from West to East between Midnight and 6am on Monday, giving way to more of a scattered type activity over time.

Average rainfall amounts of 0.5-0.75 inch can be expected along and East of I-35, with less than 0.5 inch West of I-35 tonight. Locally higher rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible in isolated heavier showers mainly further to the East of I-35 (perhaps along portions of Highway 21 and Eastward).

Low water crossings that are already in flood will continue in that condition into much of the overnight hours, with some improvement possible in spots by dawn. Many will remain at or near flood level through early tomorrow morning, especially to the immediate East of I-35 (including around Highway 21), and travel is discouraged in such areas.

North to Northeast wind will continue to gradually decrease to around 15 mph sustained with gusts mainly in the 15-25 mph range during the overnight hours.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 12 Midnight Tonight...

Widespread light to moderate rain and occasional heavier showers will continue area-wide into the evening hours. The heaviest showers are likely to occur at times immediately along and to the East of I-35.

Average rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0 inch can be expected along and East of I-35, with less than 0.5 inch West of I-35 this evening. Locally higher rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible in occasional heavier showers mainly immediately along and/or East of I-35.

Low water crossings that are already at or near flood will continue in that condition into the evening hours.

North to Northeast wind will continue to gradually decrease to 15-20 mph sustained with gusts mainly in the 25-30 mph range during the evening hours.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Harvey Full Update

...General Overview...
Per ground observations and satellite data, the center of Tropical Storm Harvey has started moving very slowly toward the Southeast and this general motion will continue through Monday, with the center of the system likely to reach the coastline again during the day Monday, somewhere to the Southwest of the Port Lavaca area.

As the center of the system moves slowly away from the local area today into Monday, the overall intensity of rainfall will gradually decrease. This is not to say that additional periods of moderate or even locally heavy downpours won't occur, because they will (particularly during the day today), but overall, the rain intensity today will be less than yesterday (except just to the East of the area East of I-35), and will be even less intense on Monday.

The main problem now is that any additional rainfall today, regardless of the amount, will allow flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings) that are already in flood to continue in flood. The same may hold true into Monday in some of the more stubborn parts of the area, even though rain rates will continue to decrease.

Generally speaking we expect 2-3 inches of additional rainfall today and 1-2 inches on Monday for the bulk of the area. Lower amounts are possible West and slightly higher amounts are possible East (please see the total rainfall map at the top of this image for the 2 day total, which is generally expected to be 3-5 inches for most of the area).

As has been the case throughout the duration of this event, the bulk of the additional rain will occur along and East of I-35, with locally higher amounts possible East of I-35.

Please see below for complete details and impacts by category.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
As noted above, generally speaking we expect 2-3 inches of additional rainfall today (since 6am) and 1-2 inches on Monday for the bulk of the area.

Lower amounts are possible West and slightly higher amounts are possible East (please see the total rainfall map at the top of this image for the 2 day total, which is generally expected to be 3-5 inches for most of the area). As has been the case throughout the duration of this event, the bulk of the additional rain will occur along and East of I-35, with locally higher amounts possible East of I-35.

Any additional rainfall today, regardless of the fact that it will likely be in lower amounts vs yesterday, will allow flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings) that are already in flood to continue in flood in many cases. The same may hold true into Monday in some of the more stubborn parts of the area, even though rain rates will continue to decrease in intensity and/or coverage during the day on Monday.

Please also note that significant flooding of both low water crossings, rivers and streams will continue at least through Monday immediately to the East of the local area - generally to the East of Highway 21 and especially over Bastrop and Caldwell counties where significantly higher rainfall amounts have occurred and will continue (as forecast).

...Local Wind Impacts...
Northeast winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during the day today will gradually decrease to around 15 mph with gusts of 15-25 mph this evening and tonight. A Wind Advisory continues in effect until 6pm today.

Please keep in mind that with ground conditions very saturated and rain continuing to fall, it will take less wind than normal to cause problems with some trees, especially those without a healthy/strong root system. We could potentially see more issues with a few downed trees this afternoon than we did yesterday in some parts of the area as a result.

...Looking Ahead Into Mid-Week...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week as the most outer extreme bands of Harvey may still rotate into parts of the area. Significant additional rainfall is not expected on Tuesday. There is some question about Wednesday, in that some computer guidance suggests that some more substantial rain bands may work back West into the local area on Wednesday, depending on exactly where the center of Harvey emerges along the coast, and how much re-intensification may occur. If it does significantly regenerate and if these heavier bands do reach the local area on Wednesday, then additional rainfall of 2-3 inches would be possible, but this prospect remains very unclear at this time and is a low confidence forecast for Wednesday. We will continue to monitor trends and issue pertinent updates as warranted.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for 6am-12 Noon Today

Widespread light to moderate rain, scattered heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm can be expected to continue into the morning hours today.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any scattered heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms.  We continue to advise that low lying/flood prone areas be avoided this morning, as earlier heavy rainfall continues to run off in these areas, especially low water crossings.

Northeast wind of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph early will slowly decrease into the 15-20 mph range with gusts mainly in the 25-30 mph range by late morning.

Short Term Weather Update for Overnight into Early Sunday...

Widespread light to moderate rain, occasional heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm can be expected to continue through early Sunday morning across most of the local region.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any heavier bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms, most of which will occur in relatively narrow bands that tend to set up in certain parts of the area from time to time. The tendency recently has been for such bands to occur immediately along and especially just to the immediate East of I-35.

Average additional rainfall of 1-2 inches can be expected at most locations in general overnight, with locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches (or possibly more) in any bands of heavier showers (such as the ones noted above).

Any additional rainfall on top of what has already occurred across much of the same areas will cause ongoing areas of low land flooding to continue overnight and into the pre-dawn/early morning hours, especially along and to the East of I-35. Low water crossings and other similar areas are most likely to flood in this type of situation, and these areas should be avoided.

Northeast wind of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will continue early tonight, and then gradually decrease into the 15-20 mph range with gusts of 20-30 mph toward or shortly after dawn.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for Now thru 12 Midnight...

Widespread light to moderate rain, periodic bands of heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will continue across the local area into the evening hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially in areas that experience any banding of heavier showers. On average, additional rainfall of around 1.0 inch can be expected this evening. Any locations that experience banding of heavier showers for a prolonged period may receive up to 2-3 inches of additional rain in those spots/bands.

Look for flooding of especially low lying and/or poor drainage areas to continue and/or increase across portions of the area this evening. This is most likely to occur in areas that tend to see any repeat banding of heavier showers over time. Such a location right now includes eastern Hays County and southeast Travis County, generally along and East of I-35 including the San Marcos, Kyle and Buda areas, as well as areas to the East of that line. Other areas may be identified during the evening hours depending on where, if any, additional heavy rain bands set up.

We will closely monitor rain trends this evening, especially looking for any signs of banding of heavier rain that may become established in a given part of the area. If such conditions are observed, a Flood Warning or similar product may be required for such portions of the area at times. Such a product is currently in effect for eastern Hays and southeastern Travis county until 11pm.

East to Northeast winds will continue to average near 25 mph on a sustained basis this evening, with gusts of 30-40 mph common.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Harvey Update for Now thru Sunday Evening (and beyond)...

...General Overview...
The center of former Hurricane Harvey will continue to meander around (with a very slow, erratic movement) in the area to the South of I-10 generally 50-75 miles to the East/Southeast of the San Antonio through Sunday afternoon. Most computer models then suggest that later on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, the system will start to turn back toward the Southeast and move slowly back toward the coast through Tuesday (but obviously as a much, much weaker system vs. the first time around).

We say "most" models suggest this because there are some that do not. The other models show the steering flow will remain very week, and the system will continue to move little to nowhere through early next week. Uncertainty in this regard has increased, therefore our confidence meter has been lowered from "Moderate to High" to "Moderate" as of this update. It will simply require more time to resolve these issues and observe the movement of the system until a more dominant steering pattern takes over and finally ejects it out of the region. Hopefully these trends will become more clear once again during the day on Sunday as additional inland data is gathered.

Regardless of how the above ultimately works out, here is what we can expect from now through Sunday evening: Widespread rain will continue across the local area. Most of the widespread rain will be light to moderate in intensity overall, but there will be periods (as we have seen today) of locally heavy rainfall mainly through Sunday afternoon/early evening. Where the exact bands of heavier rain showers tend to set up from time to time will determine who receives the most rain, as has been the case so far today.

In general, we still expect the highest rainfall and greatest potential for significant flooding on a widespread basis to remain just to the East of the area, further to the East of I-35, with the main concern (with regard to flooding) locally being low lying/poor drainage areas, specifically the typical problem low water crossings. This will especially be an issue near and to the East of I-35 based on present trends (which is really not a significant change from earlier updates).

Gusty East/Northeast winds will continue especially into early tonight before decreasing on Sunday morning.

Please see below for additional details.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
At this time we continue to forecast average total rainfall through late Sunday evening (since pre-dawn Saturday) of 3-8 inches across the local area. The lower end of the range will be in far Western sections, with the higher end in far Eastern sections (see map at the top of this bulletin). Generally speaking, the highest totals in the immediate local area are expected to occur immediately along and to the East of I-35, generally from near/North of San Marcos through Kyle and Buda and then into the central third of the Austin Metro. In that narrow band (shown in red on the above image) we are continuing to forecast 6-8 inches of rain on average, but this is highly dependent on exactly where heavier bands of precipitation continue to set up from time to time through Sunday. It is possible that some locations within that band will receive less than the indicated amount, and it is also possible that other locations within the same band may receive slightly higher than the indicated amount, depending on where the heavier precipitation bands set up.

To the East of the aforementioned line - further to the East of I-35 - widespread 8-10 inch (and higher) amounts are expected (as shown in purple on the above image), as we've forecast for several days now.

At this time we continue to expect that the primary flooding concern for the majority of the local region will be in/near low lying and poor drainage areas (especially low water crossings and the like) at times through Sunday. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas. This would be even more likely to occur closer and to the East of I-35, as described in greater detail above (and much as we have seen so far today).

...Uncertainty In the Rainfall Forecast Beyond Sunday Evening...
After Sunday evening is where the certainty level begins to erode even further, with regard to precipitation. Earlier today it seemed reasonably certain that the more widespread rain would taper off for a time by late Sunday evening (Midnight Sunday night), with the lull continuing into Monday. (We still expected to see scattered showers during that time, but not as widespread and generally not as heavy as we saw over the weekend).

The main question now goes back to the comments near the top of the page, in that there is uncertainty as to whether the system will turn back toward the South later Sunday as we've been expecting, or whether it will remain stationary for another 24-36 hours before moving again. This uncertainty has increased during the day today, as computer model solutions have diverged and the system itself has shown a continued erratic movement.

If the original scenario proceeds as expected, then rains will decrease on Sunday evening and we will have a general lull in the more widespread/occasionally heavy activity as we move into Sunday night and Monday. If, however, the system continues to remain stalled out, then additional periods of more widespread rainfall, including some locally heavy, would be possible further into Sunday night and also into Monday. If this latter scenario were to occur, we could potentially expect an additional 3-6 inches of rainfall on Sunday night and into Monday, with locally higher amounts possible especially near and East of I-35. This would be on top of the amounts already forecast through Sunday evening in the same areas.

Another important point to consider: Even if the rain does generally decrease for a time from later Sunday into Monday, there are indications that we will receive additional waves of moisture (both directly and indirectly from Harvey) again by Tuesday into Thursday of next week. Any additional rain that falls during that time period on top of what will have already been received could cause additional problems as we move into the mid-week period next week.

We will continue to monitor computer model trends as well as observations associated directly with Harvey and attempt to resolve all of the above issues as soon as it is reasonably possible. This time on Friday we had hope to accomplish this by today, but it now appears that we need to move into Sunday before these issues may hopefully be resolved. This is an unusually complex situation for this type of dynamic system, with many variables at play (some of which are still unknown at this time).

...Local Wind Impacts...
Regardless as to how the rain portion of the system works out, the wind portion should be somewhat more straight forward. With the center of the system over land for some time now, the wind field will continue to decrease in both size and intensity.

Winds will generally decrease into the 15-25 mph range by 12 Noon on Sunday. In the meantime, look for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph this evening into early tonight, decreasing to 15-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph later tonight into Sunday morning.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for 12 Noon to 6pm Today....

For the period 12 Noon to 6pm today:

• Widespread light to moderate rain, periodic bands of heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will continue into the afternoon hours
• Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially in areas that experience any banding of heavier showers
• Flooding of low lying and other flood prone areas is possible at times, especially in the vicinity of heavier shower bands that may set up in certain parts of the area
• East to Northeast winds will average near 25 mph sustained with frequent gusts of 30-40 mph; a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph are possible - especially South/East parts of the area

Widespread light to moderate rain, periodic bands of heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will continue into the afternoon hours across the local area.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially in areas that experience any banding of heavier showers. On average, additional rainfall of around 1.0 inch can be expected this afternoon. Any locations that experience banding of heavier showers for a prolonged period may receive up to 2 inches (or more) of rain in those spots/bands.

As rain continues to fall and accumulate this afternoon, look for ponding and/or standing water to continue and/or increase across the area, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. Flooding of low lying areas (i.e., low water crossings and similar areas) are possible at times, especially in any areas that tend to see any repeat banding of heavier showers over time.

We will closely monitor rain trends this afternoon, especially looking for any signs of banding of heavier rain that may become established in a given part of the area. 

East to Northeast winds will continue to average near 25 mph on a sustained basis this afternoon, with gusts of 30-40 mph common. A few peak gusts of 40-45 mph are possible at times, especially in Eastern and Southern portions of the local area (including San Marcos).


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Full Update on Harvey with Local Impacts thru 6pm Sunday...

...General Overview...
The center of Hurricane Harvey will continue to meander around (with a very slow, erratic movement) in the area to the South of I-10 generally 50-75 miles to the Southeast of San Antonio through tonight and/or Sunday morning. An area of high pressure moving into the region from the West will start to push the system back toward the East/Southeast by midday and into the afternoon hours on Sunday.

Widespread rain will continue across the local area through much of the day Sunday, before tapering off from the West by around 6pm on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at times mainly today through Sunday morning. Where the exact bands of heavier rain tends to set up from time to time will determine who receives the most rain, but with this update we have re-oriented the forecast rainfall totals (see map at top of this bulletin) to match the GENERAL trends of heavier rain banding thus far today, and what is expected through tomorrow.

In general, we still expect the highest rainfall and greatest potential for significant flooding on a widespread basis to remain just to the East of the area, further to the East of I-35, with the main concern (with regard to flooding) locally being low lying/poor drainage areas, specifically the typical problem low water crossings. This will especially be an issue near and to the East of I-35 based on present trends (which is really not a significant change from earlier updates).

Gusty East/Northeast winds will continue into Sunday morning, and will then gradually decrease.

Please see below for much more details on both wind and rain across the local area.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
Very generally speaking, we are forecasting average total rainfall through 6pm Sunday (since pre-dawn Saturday) of 3-8 inches across the local area. The lower end of the range will be in far Western sections, with the higher end in far Eastern sections (see map at the top of this bulletin). Generally speaking, the highest totals (as well as the greatest level of uncertainty surrounding those totals) are expected to occur immediately along and to the East of I-35, generally from near/North of San Marcos through Kyle and Buda and then into the central third of the Austin Metro. In that narrow band (shown in red on the above image) we are forecasting 6-8 inches of rain on average, but this is highly dependent on exactly where heavier bands of precipitation tend to set up from time to time through Sunday. It is possible that some locations within that band will receive less than the indicated amount, and it is also possible that other locations within the same band may receive slightly higher than the indicated amount, depending on where the heavier precipitation bands set up.

To the East of the aforementioned line - further to the East of I-35 - widespread 8-10 inch (and higher) amounts are expected (as shown in purple on the above image), as we've forecast for several days now.

At this time, the primary flooding concern for the majority of the local region continues to be in/near low lying and poor drainage areas (especially low water crossings and the like) at times through Sunday. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas. This would be even more likely to occur closer and to the East of I-35, as described in greater detail above.

One other note on the rainfall forecast. We are aware that there are multiple sources of information floating around in the media, on social media, etc. that show a wide range of very high rainfall totals being forecast for the local area. Please be aware that our forecast here, as indicated on the map at the top of the bulletin, covers the period from pre-dawn today (when the rain really began) through 6pm on Sunday. We expect the rain to decrease in coverage and intensity for a time starting then, but there will be additional rain produced by this system later next week when it recurves back toward the region once again (we will provide additional details on that in later updates). Keep in mind that some of these media sourced rainfall forecast maps include "Storm Total" rainfall, which would add the amounts of this weekend to the amounts that are expected later next week (since it's from the same "storm") and present that on a single map. The point we're trying to make is that it's important to keep in mind the valid time periods of the product you're looking at, as some outlets may not provide or clarify what that time period may be, so we'd advise using caution when viewing any rainfall forecast that does not specify the time period being covered by the forecast (especially those that use the term "Storm Total" or similar).

...Local Wind Impacts...
On average, look for East-Northeast winds of 20-25 mph to continue on a sustained basis, with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph through Sunday morning. Some peak gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times, especially from midday today into this afternoon. During this same time period, a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph cannot be ruled out, especially in far Southeastern portions of the local region (i.e., toward the San Marcos area and points South and Southeast from there).

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Rainfall and Wind Forecast...
It is important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected, or should the system fail to turn back to the Southeast tomorrow as is currently expected, then both the rainfall and/or wind forecasts above may require revision (generally upward and/or for a longer time period). For that matter, the system could also meander further Eastward than expected which would result in a potential reduction and/or decrease in duration of both wind and rain across the area. While neither of these scenarios necessarily appear "likely" at this time, we will continue monitoring trends closely and issue updates if a change becomes likely or apparent.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 12 Noon Today

For the period 6am to 12 Noon today:

Widespread light to moderate rain, scattered heavier showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms can be expected to continue across the local region.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms. Most precipitation, however, will continue to average light to frequently moderate in intensity on average across most of the area through 12 Noon. An average rainfall rate with this activity is currently around 0.25 to 0.3 inch per hour. The spotty heavier showers and any isolated thunderstorms may produce rates of around 0.5-0.75 inch per hour or so in the affected areas (during the period of time they are impacted).

Significant problems with flooding, etc., do not appear likely through 12 Noon for most of the area. As rain continues to fall and accumulate over time, look for ponding and/or standing water especially in low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., nuisance "street flooding" in some of those areas) especially in any areas that tend to see a few periods of heavier showers from time to time.

East to Northeast winds will continue to average 20-25 mph on a sustained basis this morning, with gusts of 30-35 mph common early and then some gusts of 35-40 mph increasing especially by mid-morning.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 6am on Saturday

As we move into the overnight hours tonight, periods of light rain, scattered moderate showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms can be expected to gradually develop and slowly increase across the local region.

Generally brief but heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms. Most precipitation, however, will be light to moderate in intensity through dawn across most of the area.

East to Northeast winds will continue to slowly increase overnight, becoming sustained at 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible starting mainly toward dawn.

Looking ahead to the period 6am-12 Noon on Saturday: Rain and occasional heavier showers will increase into the morning hours on Saturday area-wide. A few scattered thunderstorms are also possible. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times in some parts of the area on Saturday morning. East to Northeast winds will increase to around 25 mph on a sustained basis with frequent gusts of 30-40 mph on Saturday morning.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for Now thru Midnight (and an outlook beyond)

As we move into the evening hours today, there is a chance of an isolated to widely spaced shower or thunderstorm across the local area. Most locations, however, will remain dry.

Any isolated thunderstorm that does form would be capable of producing brief, heavy downpours of rain and lightning, but again, most locations will remain free of such activity.

Looking ahead to after 12 Midnight: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to increase during the overnight period...particularly toward/after 2-3am...and into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. 

Update on Expected Local Conditions from Harvey

...Hurricane Harvey Current Trends and Expected Coastal Impacts...
Hurricane Harvey is forecast to continue in a general Northwest direction and make landfall generally between 1am and 3am on Saturday somewhere in the vicinity of Rockport, TX. The system will likely be a "major" hurricane at landfall, with extensive impacts from wind, storm surge and catastrophic fresh water flooding across much of the Texas coastal bend and adjacent coastal plain. Needless to say, travel is not recommended into that part of the state.

...Expected Movement of the System Once Inland and General Overview of Local Impacts...
Based on present indications, once the system makes landfall...the center is expected to drift Northwestward and come to a stop somewhere approximately 80 miles to the Southeast of San Antonio on Saturday afternoon. The system is then expected to remain nearly stationary into midday on Sunday before turning back toward the Southeast toward the coastal waters later Sunday into Monday. Assuming the stall-out and then Southeast recurve occurs as described above, the center of the system would remain to the East and/or Southeast of the local area at all times - and therefore the tendency for the most significant and heaviest rainfall would also generally be to the Southeast of the local area - generally to the East of I-35 and near/South of I-10. The below forecast impacts for the local area are based on this assumption.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
Based on the above assumptions, we continue to forecast widespread average rainfall of 3-6 inches across most of the local area. Although scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as this afternoon and evening, the majority of the local rainfall will occur from after Midnight tonight into Sunday afternoon. As per the map at the top of this bulletin, the lower end of the forecast rainfall range would be in the Northwest part of the area, and the higher end toward the Southeast part of the area. Locally higher amounts are also possible in spots with any repeat heavier bands, especially near and/or East of I-35.

Rainfall of the amount currently forecast for the local area would mostly occur in the form of numerous showers and some scattered thunderstorms (thunderstorms are actually less dominant in tropical systems vs. regular showers). Some of the showers, however, are likely to produce periods of locally heavy downpours. It will be these downpours that are likely to result in flooding of especially low lying and poor drainage areas in at least some parts of the local region during the Advisory period, and especially during the day on Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas. This would be even more likely to occur near and East of I-35, as noted above.

With the above in mind, at this time, we continue to forecast that the potential for the most significant creek, stream and/or river flooding would mainly exist further to the East of I-35 - to the East of the local area - and further to the South, closer to I-10 and Southward. Much higher rainfall totals in excess of 6-10 inches appear likely in those areas...and possibly over a more prolonged time period as well.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Rainfall and Flooding Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected, and/or should the system stall out just to the Southeast of the local area for a longer time period (instead of turning back toward the coast as is currently anticipated), then the threat of more significant rainfall could potentially shift Westward into at least some parts of the local area. If this were to occur, the potential for flooding would increase across the local area as well (and the flooding potential could then be extended into Monday and possibly even Tuesday in such a case). While this particular scenario does not necessarily appear "likely" to occur at this time, the fact of the matter is that we won't be able to rule it out until we see how much inland progress the system makes on Saturday.

...Local Wind Impacts...
For the period 6am Saturday through 12 Noon on Sunday, look for East-Northeast winds to increase to 20-25 mph on a sustained basis, with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Some peak gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times, especially from midday Saturday into Saturday afternoon. This forecast is again based on the expected current track of the center of the system once it moves inland, as described in detail above. Please refer also to the latest update to the Wind Advisory product for additional details on that aspect of the forecast.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Wind Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected once it has moved inland, then the threat of more significant wind gusts may develop locally over the weekend. Under such a scenario, sustained winds of around 30 mph with several gusts of 35-45 mph would be possible in some parts of the area, mainly from midday Saturday into Saturday afternoon. While this particular scenario does not necessarily appear "likely" to occur at this time, the fact of the matter is that we won't be able to rule it out until we see how much inland progress the system makes on Saturday.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Hurricane Harvey Local Update

We are continuing to closely monitor the development and progression of Hurricane Harvey, which is currently located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...Current Trends of the System and Expected Coastal Impacts...
Since the early morning update today, the center of Harvey has moved more toward the Northwest vs. West/Northwest. The system has also intensified rapidly, and has since reached hurricane strength. The system is forecast to continue in a general West/Northwest to Northwest direction and make landfall generally between 1am and 7am on Saturday somewhere in the vicinity of Rockport, TX. The system will likely be a "major" hurricane at landfall, with extensive impacts from wind, storm surge and fresh water flooding across much of the Texas coastal bend.

...Expected Movement of the System Once Inland...
Based on present indications, once the system makes landfall...the center is expected to drift Northwestward and come to a stop somewhere approximately 40-60 miles to the Southeast of San Antonio on Saturday night or early Sunday morning. The system is then expected to remain nearly stationary during most of the day on Sunday before turning back toward the Southeast toward the coastal waters late Sunday into Monday. Assuming the stall-out and then Southeast recurve occurs as described above, the center of the system would remain to the East and/or Southeast of the local area at all times - and therefore the tendency for the most significant, widespread rainfall would also generally be to the Southeast of the local area - closer to I-10 and East of I-35.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
Based on the above assumptions, we are currently forecasting widespread average rainfall of 3-6 inches across most of the local area from later Friday evening into Sunday. As per the map at the top of this bulletin, the lower end of the range would be in the Northwest part of the area, and the higher end toward the Southeast part of the area. Locally higher amounts are also possible in spots.

Rainfall of the amount currently forecast for the local area would mostly occur in the form of numerous showers and some scattered thunderstorms (thunderstorms are actually less dominant in tropical systems vs. regular showers). Some of the showers, however, are likely to produce periods of locally heavy downpours. It will be these downpours that are likely to result in flooding of especially low lying and poor drainage areas in at least some parts of the local region during the Advisory period, and especially during the day on Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas.

With the above in mind, at this time, we continue to forecast that the potential for significant creek, stream and/or river flooding would mainly exist further to the East of I-35 - to the East of the local area - and further to the South, closer to I-10 and Southward. Much higher rainfall totals in excess of 6 inches appear likely in those areas...and possibly over a more prolonged time period as well.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Rainfall and Flooding Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected, and/or should the system stall out just to the Southeast of the local area instead of turning back toward the coast as is currently anticipated, then the threat of more significant rainfall would potentially shift deeper into the local area, and increased flooding potential could occur as a result (also, the flooding potential could then be extended into Monday and possibly even Tuesday if such a scenario were to occur). Present indications suggest that it will be difficult for us to confidently express whether or not such a change in movement is possible until the system has already made landfall and has progressed inland for a number of miles. This would most likely be sometime during the day on Saturday, based on present indications.

...Local Wind Impacts...
During the period from 6am Saturday through 12 Noon on Sunday, look for East-Northeast winds of 20-25 mph on a sustained basis, with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Some peak gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times, especially on Saturday afternoon and/or evening. This forecast is again based on the expected current track of the center of the system once it moves inland, as described in detail above.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Wind Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected once it has moved inland, then the threat of more significant wind gusts may develop locally over the weekend. Under such a scenario, sustained winds of around 30 mph with several gusts of 35-45 mph would be possible in some parts of the area, mainly on Saturday afternoon or evening. It will be difficult to tell whether or not this scenario is possible until we've been able to track the inland progression of the system on Friday night into early Saturday. At this time we will continue with the current "most likely" scenario described in the "Local Wind Impacts" section noted above. If changes in the track appear likely to occur, we will update the forecast accordingly as soon as those conditions appear probable.

We will continue closely monitoring the progression of this system and issue updates as conditions warrant.