Harvey Full Update

...General Overview...
Per ground observations and satellite data, the center of Tropical Storm Harvey has started moving very slowly toward the Southeast and this general motion will continue through Monday, with the center of the system likely to reach the coastline again during the day Monday, somewhere to the Southwest of the Port Lavaca area.

As the center of the system moves slowly away from the local area today into Monday, the overall intensity of rainfall will gradually decrease. This is not to say that additional periods of moderate or even locally heavy downpours won't occur, because they will (particularly during the day today), but overall, the rain intensity today will be less than yesterday (except just to the East of the area East of I-35), and will be even less intense on Monday.

The main problem now is that any additional rainfall today, regardless of the amount, will allow flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings) that are already in flood to continue in flood. The same may hold true into Monday in some of the more stubborn parts of the area, even though rain rates will continue to decrease.

Generally speaking we expect 2-3 inches of additional rainfall today and 1-2 inches on Monday for the bulk of the area. Lower amounts are possible West and slightly higher amounts are possible East (please see the total rainfall map at the top of this image for the 2 day total, which is generally expected to be 3-5 inches for most of the area).

As has been the case throughout the duration of this event, the bulk of the additional rain will occur along and East of I-35, with locally higher amounts possible East of I-35.

Please see below for complete details and impacts by category.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
As noted above, generally speaking we expect 2-3 inches of additional rainfall today (since 6am) and 1-2 inches on Monday for the bulk of the area.

Lower amounts are possible West and slightly higher amounts are possible East (please see the total rainfall map at the top of this image for the 2 day total, which is generally expected to be 3-5 inches for most of the area). As has been the case throughout the duration of this event, the bulk of the additional rain will occur along and East of I-35, with locally higher amounts possible East of I-35.

Any additional rainfall today, regardless of the fact that it will likely be in lower amounts vs yesterday, will allow flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings) that are already in flood to continue in flood in many cases. The same may hold true into Monday in some of the more stubborn parts of the area, even though rain rates will continue to decrease in intensity and/or coverage during the day on Monday.

Please also note that significant flooding of both low water crossings, rivers and streams will continue at least through Monday immediately to the East of the local area - generally to the East of Highway 21 and especially over Bastrop and Caldwell counties where significantly higher rainfall amounts have occurred and will continue (as forecast).

...Local Wind Impacts...
Northeast winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during the day today will gradually decrease to around 15 mph with gusts of 15-25 mph this evening and tonight. A Wind Advisory continues in effect until 6pm today.

Please keep in mind that with ground conditions very saturated and rain continuing to fall, it will take less wind than normal to cause problems with some trees, especially those without a healthy/strong root system. We could potentially see more issues with a few downed trees this afternoon than we did yesterday in some parts of the area as a result.

...Looking Ahead Into Mid-Week...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week as the most outer extreme bands of Harvey may still rotate into parts of the area. Significant additional rainfall is not expected on Tuesday. There is some question about Wednesday, in that some computer guidance suggests that some more substantial rain bands may work back West into the local area on Wednesday, depending on exactly where the center of Harvey emerges along the coast, and how much re-intensification may occur. If it does significantly regenerate and if these heavier bands do reach the local area on Wednesday, then additional rainfall of 2-3 inches would be possible, but this prospect remains very unclear at this time and is a low confidence forecast for Wednesday. We will continue to monitor trends and issue pertinent updates as warranted.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.