Significant Winter Weather Impacts Likely Sunday Afternoon thru Monday Morning (and lingering thereafter)

 Expected impacts:

• A mixture of freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected to develop around 3pm on Sunday and continue through about 3am on Monday, then change entirely to snow and continue into Monday morning
• Ice accumulation of around 0.1 inch is likely, with amounts of 0.1-0.2 inch possible in some parts of the area, mainly from 3pm Sunday afternoon to Midnight on Sunday night
• Sleet accumulation of up to 0.5 inch is likely, with localized amounts of 0.5-1.0 inch possible in some parts of the area, mainly from 6pm Sunday to 3am Monday
• Snow accumulation of 1-2 inches is likely area-wide, with 2-4 inches possible in some spots, mainly from 3am Monday to 9am Monday
• Northerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph may create areas of blowing snow at times, and the presence of ice/snow and the gusty winds may result in power outages

Probability of the specified ice amount (total) at a given location:

• Probability of <0.1 inch of ice: 70%
• Probability of around 0.1 inch of ice: 50%
• Probability of 0.1-0.2 inch of ice: 30%
• Probability of 0.2-0.3 inch of ice: 20%

Probability of the specified snowfall amount (total) at a given location:

• Probability of ≤0.5 inch of snow: 100%
• Probability of 0.5-1.0 inch of snow: 80%
• Probability of 1.0-1.5 inches of snow: 70%
• Probability of 1.5-2.0 inches of snow: 60%
• Probability of 2.0-3.0 inches of snow: 50%
• Probability of 3.0-4.0 inches of snow: 40%
• Probability of 4.0-5.0 inches of snow: 30%
• Probability of >5.0 inches of snow: 20%

Discussion:
Confidence continues to increase in that a significant, if not major, winter storm will impact the local region from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, with significant impacts likely area-wide. Furthermore, the fact that temperatures will be well below freezing throughout the period, and afterward, suggest that the impacts will linger for a considerable period of time after the falling precipitation has ended.

A mixture of freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected to develop around 3pm on Sunday and continue through about 3am on Monday. The mix is then expected to change entirely to snow and continue through about 9am on Monday morning, then diminish through 12 Noon.

Ice accumulation of around 0.1 inch is likely, with amounts of 0.1-0.2 inch possible in some parts of the area, mainly from 3pm Sunday afternoon to Midnight on Sunday night. Sleet accumulation of up to 0.5 inch is likely, with localized amounts of 0.5-1.0 inch possible in some parts of the area, mainly from 6pm Sunday to 3am Monday.

Snow accumulation of 1-2 inches is likely area-wide, with 2-4 inches possible in some spots, mainly from 3am Monday to 9am Monday.

Northerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph may create areas of blowing snow at times, especially in more open areas with a direct exposure to a Northerly wind. Additionally, what is likely to be the presence of accumulated ice followed by accumulated snow combined with the gusty winds may result in the downing of tree limbs and power lines at times. This will also increase the risk of power outages across many parts of the area during, and after, the event.

Temperatures will remain well below freezing following the event, bottoming out in the single digits early on Tuesday morning, and not rising above freezing until about 9-10am on Wednesday. This means that the accumulated ice/snow will remain across the area from Monday afternoon through midday Wednesday, which could further hamper efforts to restore power to areas with outages from the storm on Sunday night and Monday. As a result of this, we highly recommend that your preparations include making sure that you have an alternate heating source should your primary source fail as a result of this event, and/or the cold temperatures creating demand that some gas/electric companies cannot fully meet.