Expected impacts:
- Patchy areas of drizzle or very
light rain are possible on Friday morning and a few spotty light showers
cannot be ruled out
- An isolated thunderstorm is
possible mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night, but this
would more likely occur to the East of I-35
- If an isolated thunderstorm
does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become strong, but again, this
would most likely occur to the East of I-35
- Isolated to widely scattered
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible overnight
Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday
Discussion:
Patchy areas of drizzle or very light rain are possible on Friday morning and a
few spotty light rain showers cannot be ruled out. Most of this activity will
be very light in intensity and somewhat spotty in nature, with any rainfall on
Friday morning likely to average only a trace or few hundredths of an inch in
the impacted locations.
The afternoon hours on Friday are likely to remain dry, but a spotty patch of
very light rain cannot be completely ruled out.
By Friday evening...a boundary will approach the local a region from the West.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible across the area as this boundary moves
through, mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night. The
probability of a thunderstorm developing across the local area during this time
period is about 20 percent (or less), with higher probabilities to the East of
I-35.
If an isolated thunderstorm does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become
strong, with strong, gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would most likely
occur to the East of I-35 during that time period.
Otherwise...isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm are possible across the area overnight Friday night (after
Midnight) into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning, behind the
aforementioned boundary.
Please note: Strong, gusty winds will occur area-wide across the region on
Saturday.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions
warrant.
Expected impacts:
- An isolated thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am on Saturday morning
- Scattered, mostly light rain
showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning
- Temperatures will fall from the
lower 70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then
hold there for much of the daytime hours on Saturday
- Gusty North winds will create
wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the
daytime hours on Saturday
Discussion:
A strong cold front will move from Northwest to Southeast across the local area
from 10pm this evening to 2am on Saturday. Behind the front across the local
area, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am
on Saturday morning. While the chance of a thunderstorm developing is less than
20 percent, if a thunderstorm does form it could produce gusty winds and/or
hail in the isolated area that would be affected. This is more likely to occur
further to the East of the local area overnight tonight, based on present
indications.
Otherwise, scattered, mostly light rain showers can be expected tonight into
Saturday morning across the local area. Temperatures will fall from the lower
70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then hold there
for much of the daytime hours on Saturday.
Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s
during much of the daytime hours on Saturday. Due to the unusual nature of such
an event for this time of year, precautions should be taken if outdoor
activities are planned for Saturday. Conditions will be more representative of
a January or February cold front, vs. the type we normally see in April.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions
warrant.
Expected impacts:
- An isolated thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out mainly from after 10pm on Friday through 6am on Saturday
- Gusty North winds, much cooler
temperatures and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected
during the day on Saturday
- Daytime temperatures on
Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the
local area
- Gusty North winds will create
wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the day on
Saturday
Discussion:
An unusually strong cold front (for this time of year) will move from Northwest
to Southeast across the local area starting late on Friday evening (likely
after 10pm) into the early nighttime hours on Friday night. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible behind the cold front, mainly from after 10pm on
Friday through about 6am on Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will likely be more
numerous to the East of the local area during the overnight hours on Friday
night and the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning.
If an isolated thunderstorm were to manage to develop locally during the above
time period, it could produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, at this time
any such activity is likely to be very isolated in nature (if it forms at all),
with the probability of any given location being impacted at less than 20 percent.
Behind the cold front on Saturday, gusty North winds, much cooler temperatures
and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected. Daytime temperatures
on Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the
local area. Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s
to lower 40s during the day on Saturday.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions
warrant.
Expected impacts:
- Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible mainly between 6pm and 10pm today
- An isolated strong thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out during the same time period
- Thunderstorm activity will
likely be more numerous, and stronger, to the East of I-35 during the same
time period (and also afterward)
Discussion:
A cold front will move into the local area late this afternoon into this
evening, causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly between
6pm and 10pm.
An isolated stronger thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during this time, which
could produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in at least some parts of the
local region. At this time it appears that, for the local area, any such activity
will likely develop behind the cold front, which would tend to mitigate the
potential for "severe" weather somewhat. The probability of severe
storms will be higher (in both number and intensity) to the East of the area,
to the East of I-35, where thunderstorms are more likely to develop along or
ahead of the cold front.
Behind the front, breezy and much cooler conditions can be expected across the
area for tonight into the day on Wednesday.
Expected impacts:
- Scattered showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm can be expected before Midnight tonight
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight into Wednesday morning,
especially from 2am thru 10am on Wednesday
- Locally heavy downpours of rain
are possible during periods of thunderstorms, especially at times between
2am and 10am on Wednesday
- Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected across the local area with this event on average, and 2-3 inches
of rain is possible possible in some spots
- Scattered thunderstorms may
redevelop in some parts of the area late Wednesday afternoon into early
Wednesday evening
Discussion:
Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible across the
local area this evening, before Midnight tonight.
It continues to appear that the timing for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity across the local area will be from overnight tonight into
Wednesday morning, especially from toward/after 2am through 10am on Wednesday.
Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible during periods of thunderstorms,
especially at times between 2am and 10am on Wednesday. Total rainfall of 1-2
inches is expected across the local area with this event on average, and 2-3
inches of rain is possible possible in some spots. The majority of the rainfall
will likely occur during the aforementioned 2am-10am period on Wednesday.
At this time this event does not appear likely to produce widespread flooding
across the local area, but some of the more flood prone low lying areas (i.e.,
some of the more vulnerable low water crossings and the like) may need to be
monitored at times, especially during any periods of locally heavy downpours
that are expected to occur. With the more numerous shower and thunderstorm
activity currently expected to occur between 2am and 10am on Wednesday, this
would be the most likely time period where any potential concerns could
possibly arise. Please note this includes the morning rush/transportation
period on Wednesday.
In addition...we cannot rule out the development of an isolated or scattered
strong thunderstorm overnight tonight or early on Wednesday morning, again most
likely during the aforementioned 2am-10am time period. If any such development
were to occur, strong gusty winds and spotty hail would be possible in any
affected areas. The primary concern with activity will be the locally heavy
downpours noted above, but we do want to make you aware of this possibility as
well.
Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop in some parts of the area late Wednesday
afternoon into early Wednesday evening, but at this time the extent of this
activity appears likely to be some what limited. We will continue monitoring
for any changes in this and issue updates as warranted.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions
warrant.
Changes Since Last Update:
- No major changes have been
made; attempted to continue to better define various timing elements where
possible
Valid time of Advisory:
06:00 AM Tomorrow until 10:00 PM Wednesday (03/28/18)
Expected impacts:
- Scattered showers are possible
during the daytime hours on Tuesday - and an isolated thunderstorm cannot
be completely ruled out on Tuesday
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely during the pre-dawn and morning hours on
Wednesday (i.e., from 5am-12 Noon on Wednesday)
- Locally heavy downpours of rain
are possible during periods of thunderstorms, especially from 5am to 12
Noon on Wednesday
- Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected across the local area with this event on average, and 2-3 inches
of rain is possible possible in some spots
Discussion:
Scattered showers are possible during the daytime hours on Tuesday - and an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out on Tuesday.
The most likely time period for more numerous showers and thunderstorms is
still expected to be during the pre-dawn and morning hours on Wednesday, mainly
from 5am to about 12 Noon on Wednesday.
Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible during periods of thunderstorms,
especially from 5am to 12 Noon on Wednesday.
Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across the local area with this event
on average, and 2-3 inches of rain is possible possible in some spots,
especially if more than one round of thunderstorm activity is observed at a
given location. Again, this would be more likely to occur from 5am to 12 Noon
on Wednesday, based on present indications.
At this time this event does not appear likely to produce widespread and/or
organized flooding across the local area, but a few of the more flood prone low
lying areas (i.e., some of the more vulnerable low water crossings and the
like) may need to be monitored at times, especially during any persistent
periods of locally heavy downpours that may occur in some parts of the area.
With the more numerous shower and thunderstorm activity currently expected to
occur between 5am and 12 Noon on Wednesday, this would be the most likely time
period where any potential concerns could possibly arise.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions
warrant.
Forecaster Confidence (Low/Moderate/High):
Moderate to High
Valid Period of this Advisory:
12:00 PM Tuesday (03/27/18) until 07:00 AM Thursday (03/29/18)
Expected impacts:
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are likely from mainly after 12 Noon on Tuesday through 7am
on Thursday
- Locally heavy downpours of rain
are possible at times especially with any thunderstorms during the period
- Total rainfall is expected to
average 2.5 to 3.5 inches across the local area with this event
- Locally higher rainfall amounts
are possible with any organized/persistent areas of thunderstorms
Discussion:
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely from mainly after 12 Noon on
Tuesday through 7am on Thursday. It will not rain during that entire period of
time, but more likely on an occasional to intermittent basis during the period.
Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially with any
thunderstorms during the period.
Total rainfall is expected to average 2.5 to 3.5 inches across the local area
with this event. Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible in spots,
especially in association with any organized/persistent areas of thunderstorms
during the period.
At this time this event does not appear likely to produce widespread and/or
organized flooding across the area, but a few locally flood prone low lying
areas (i.e., some of the more vulnerable low water crossings and the like)
could possibly need to be monitored at times especially during any persistent
periods of locally heavy downpours that may occur at least in spots across the
area. As we move closer to the even the most likely time periods for any such
concerns should become more apparent.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions
warrant.
Forecaster Confidence (Low/Moderate/High):
Moderate to High
