Extended Period of Wet Weather Likely Sunday-Wednesday...

We are monitoring a developing weather situation for the period Sunday through Wednesday of this weekend/next week.

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and will move into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This system may or may not develop into an organized tropical weather system late this weekend or early next week - but regardless of the formal extent of development - it will likely bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

With the above in mind, present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting during the day on Sunday and may continue at times through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday and Tuesday of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Depending upon exactly how the situation unfolds (which is not entirely clear at this time) locally heavy rainfall will be possible at least at times during the period in at least parts of the local area, and especially on Monday and Tuesday as noted above. As the eventual track of the weather system becomes more clear, we'll be able to be more specific on the potential for heavy rainfall and any associated hazards in future updates.

This is a developing weather situation with much uncertainty still involved. We will continue to monitor the latest trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Widespread, Locally Heavy Rainfall Likely Today...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely especially between 9am and 3pm today. Some isolated to widely scattered activity is possible both before and after that time period.

Locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with any thunderstorms, especially between 9am and 3pm today. At the present time it appears that rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are likely for most of the local area with this event, with locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches (or more) possible in any parts of the area that receive any concentrated thunderstorm activity.

The primary local concern with this activity will be the possibility of flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and the like) during any periods of heavy rainfall mainly between 9am and 3pm today. Depending on the extent of heavy rainfall during that time, issues with especially low water crossings may linger into the late afternoon or early evening hours in at least some parts of the local area.

An isolated stronger thunderstorm could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail mainly during the morning hours today (i.e., mainly between 9am and 12 Noon), but the primary local concerns will be the potential for flooding of low water crossings and similar areas, as noted above.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

A Wet Friday In Store - The Ride Home Could Have Delays...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely from late Friday morning/midday into Friday afternoon and early Friday night.

At this time it appears that the bulk of the activity will likely occur between 12 Noon and 6pm on Friday. Some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity may occur prior to this time, on Friday morning, but the activity is not expected to become more widespread until around or shortly after 12 Noon on Friday.

Locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with any thunderstorms, especially between 12 Noon and 6pm on Friday. At the present time it appears that rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are likely for most of the local area with this event, with locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches (or more) possible in any parts of the area that receive any concentrated thunderstorm activity on Friday afternoon.

The primary local concern with this activity will be the possibility of flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and the like) during any periods of heavy rainfall mainly between 12 Noon and 6pm on Friday afternoon. It will be difficult to pinpoint exactly where this is most likely to occur until the activity actually begins to develop and get underway, so that we can identify any favored areas for persistent thunderstorm development (where/when applicable).

Please note that the bulk of the rainfall (as well as periods of potentially the heaviest rainfall) is currently expected to occur during the heart of the afternoon rush/transportation period on Friday.  If you normally travel in areas that typically flood during such conditions, it would be a good idea to have an alternate route in mind in case heavy rainfall impacts travel along your route tomorrow afternoon.

Spotty a.m. Showers, Slight Chance of an Isolated p.m. T-Storm Friday....

Expected impacts:

• Patchy areas of drizzle or very light rain are possible on Friday morning and a few spotty light showers cannot be ruled out
• An isolated thunderstorm is possible mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night, but this would more likely occur to the East of I-35
• If an isolated thunderstorm does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become strong, but again, this would most likely occur to the East of I-35
• Isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible overnight Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday

Discussion:
Patchy areas of drizzle or very light rain are possible on Friday morning and a few spotty light rain showers cannot be ruled out. Most of this activity will be very light in intensity and somewhat spotty in nature, with any rainfall on Friday morning likely to average only a trace or few hundredths of an inch in the impacted locations.

The afternoon hours on Friday are likely to remain dry, but a spotty patch of very light rain cannot be completely ruled out.

By Friday evening...a boundary will approach the local a region from the West. An isolated thunderstorm is possible across the area as this boundary moves through, mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night. The probability of a thunderstorm developing across the local area during this time period is about 20 percent (or less), with higher probabilities to the East of I-35.

If an isolated thunderstorm does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become strong, with strong, gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would most likely occur to the East of I-35 during that time period.

Otherwise...isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible across the area overnight Friday night (after Midnight) into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning, behind the aforementioned boundary.

Please note: Strong, gusty winds will occur area-wide across the region on Saturday. 

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Unusually Cold Conditions for Saturday...

Expected impacts:

• An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am on Saturday morning
• Scattered, mostly light rain showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning
• Temperatures will fall from the lower 70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then hold there for much of the daytime hours on Saturday
• Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the daytime hours on Saturday

Discussion:
A strong cold front will move from Northwest to Southeast across the local area from 10pm this evening to 2am on Saturday. Behind the front across the local area, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am on Saturday morning. While the chance of a thunderstorm developing is less than 20 percent, if a thunderstorm does form it could produce gusty winds and/or hail in the isolated area that would be affected. This is more likely to occur further to the East of the local area overnight tonight, based on present indications.

Otherwise, scattered, mostly light rain showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning across the local area. Temperatures will fall from the lower 70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then hold there for much of the daytime hours on Saturday.

Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the daytime hours on Saturday. Due to the unusual nature of such an event for this time of year, precautions should be taken if outdoor activities are planned for Saturday. Conditions will be more representative of a January or February cold front, vs. the type we normally see in April.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Unusually cold conditions likely for Saturday...

Expected impacts:

• An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly from after 10pm on Friday through 6am on Saturday
• Gusty North winds, much cooler temperatures and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected during the day on Saturday
• Daytime temperatures on Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the local area
• Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the day on Saturday

Discussion:

An unusually strong cold front (for this time of year) will move from Northwest to Southeast across the local area starting late on Friday evening (likely after 10pm) into the early nighttime hours on Friday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the cold front, mainly from after 10pm on Friday through about 6am on Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will likely be more numerous to the East of the local area during the overnight hours on Friday night and the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning.

If an isolated thunderstorm were to manage to develop locally during the above time period, it could produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, at this time any such activity is likely to be very isolated in nature (if it forms at all), with the probability of any given location being impacted at less than 20 percent.

Behind the cold front on Saturday, gusty North winds, much cooler temperatures and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected. Daytime temperatures on Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the local area. Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during the day on Saturday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Thunderstorms Possible With a Cold Front Later Today...

Expected impacts:

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly between 6pm and 10pm today
• An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the same time period
• Thunderstorm activity will likely be more numerous, and stronger, to the East of I-35 during the same time period (and also afterward)

Discussion:


A cold front will move into the local area late this afternoon into this evening, causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly between 6pm and 10pm.

An isolated stronger thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during this time, which could produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in at least some parts of the local region. At this time it appears that, for the local area, any such activity will likely develop behind the cold front, which would tend to mitigate the potential for "severe" weather somewhat. The probability of severe storms will be higher (in both number and intensity) to the East of the area, to the East of I-35, where thunderstorms are more likely to develop along or ahead of the cold front.

Behind the front, breezy and much cooler conditions can be expected across the area for tonight into the day on Wednesday.