We are not currently posting on the blog regarding today's weather situation. Please refer to live/real time updates on twitter.
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
Daylight hours today will be quiet for the metro. The time to watch is after Sunset and into tonight...
Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to form well to the West/Northwest of the local
area (further out over the Hill Country) late this afternoon, generally after 3pm. Some
of this activity may move and/or develop Southeastward into at least parts of
the local area after Sunset today into early tonight/pre-dawn Wednesday (generally
before 2-3am on Wednesday).
The exact track of the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity late this evening and tonight is still somewhat in question. There is a moderate possibility that the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity will turn more toward the South/Southeast prior to approaching the I-35 corridor late this evening. If this occurs, the strongest and most widespread storms would likely remain to the immediate West of the local area later this evening into tonight, with more "general" shower and thunderstorm activity across the local area.
Several of the short-range/high-resolution forecast models have recently come into agreement with this possibility, as shown in one instance below:
In short - it will be difficult to assess the likely future movement of the more organized and stronger thunderstorm activity until closer to (or even shortly after) the time that it actually forms further to the West late this afternoon. At that time we'll be able to gauge the eventual organization and movement much more clearly.
To summarize: While there is a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms locally after Sunset today and into at least the first half of tonight, some question remains as to where the strongest, most organized storms will track. If any stronger, more organized thunderstorm activity does move and/or develop into the local area late this evening or early tonight, areas of locally heavy rain are likely, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and possibly some hail in some parts of the area. Again, this would be from after Sunset today through about 2-3am on Wednesday for the local area.
We will continue to monitor the evolution of activity later today and issue updates as warranted.
The exact track of the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity late this evening and tonight is still somewhat in question. There is a moderate possibility that the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity will turn more toward the South/Southeast prior to approaching the I-35 corridor late this evening. If this occurs, the strongest and most widespread storms would likely remain to the immediate West of the local area later this evening into tonight, with more "general" shower and thunderstorm activity across the local area.
Several of the short-range/high-resolution forecast models have recently come into agreement with this possibility, as shown in one instance below:
In short - it will be difficult to assess the likely future movement of the more organized and stronger thunderstorm activity until closer to (or even shortly after) the time that it actually forms further to the West late this afternoon. At that time we'll be able to gauge the eventual organization and movement much more clearly.
To summarize: While there is a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms locally after Sunset today and into at least the first half of tonight, some question remains as to where the strongest, most organized storms will track. If any stronger, more organized thunderstorm activity does move and/or develop into the local area late this evening or early tonight, areas of locally heavy rain are likely, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and possibly some hail in some parts of the area. Again, this would be from after Sunset today through about 2-3am on Wednesday for the local area.
We will continue to monitor the evolution of activity later today and issue updates as warranted.
Monday, May 16, 2016
An Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Tuesday, 5/17/16 (into pre-dawn Wednesday, 5/18/16)
The potential exists for thunderstorm activity across at least some parts of the local area during two specific time periods on Tuesday. The first is on Tuesday morning, and the second is after Sunset on Tuesday evening, into Tuesday night.
...Tuesday Morning...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in far southwest Texas and adjacent portions of far northwest Mexico later this evening into early tonight. It is possible that some of this activity may move and/or develop far enough toward the East to reach parts of the local area on Tuesday morning, but this is not a certainty at this time. At this time we would place the probability of this happening at around 30 percent. If any thunderstorms do move into the local area from the West on Tuesday morning, it would most likely occur sometime from near sunrise through possibly 10am. Brief, heavy downpours of rain would be the primary concern with any thunderstorms during that time, as well as lightning.
...After Sunset on Tuesday Evening, Into Tuesday Night...
A somewhat higher chance of thunderstorm activity appears to be shaping up for the local area late on Tuesday evening (after Sunset) into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms are expected to form out over the Hill Country late on Tuesday afternoon. Some of this activity may move and/or develop into the local area after Sunset, into mainly early Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday (mainly before 2am on Wednesday).
There is some uncertainty regarding the Tuesday evening/Tuesday night time period locally, as the bulk of the thunderstorm activity may form and/or move in such a way as to remain to the immediate West of the local area. It will be difficult to assess this potential until sometime during the day on Tuesday. We will continue to assess the latest trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear.
If thunderstorm activity does move or develop into the local area on Tuesday evening after Sunset, it would likely result in areas of locally heavy rainfall, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and perhaps some hail in some parts of the area. Again, this potential will be highest from after Sunset on Tuesday evening through about 2am on Wednesday morning across the local region.
...Tuesday Morning...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in far southwest Texas and adjacent portions of far northwest Mexico later this evening into early tonight. It is possible that some of this activity may move and/or develop far enough toward the East to reach parts of the local area on Tuesday morning, but this is not a certainty at this time. At this time we would place the probability of this happening at around 30 percent. If any thunderstorms do move into the local area from the West on Tuesday morning, it would most likely occur sometime from near sunrise through possibly 10am. Brief, heavy downpours of rain would be the primary concern with any thunderstorms during that time, as well as lightning.
...After Sunset on Tuesday Evening, Into Tuesday Night...
A somewhat higher chance of thunderstorm activity appears to be shaping up for the local area late on Tuesday evening (after Sunset) into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms are expected to form out over the Hill Country late on Tuesday afternoon. Some of this activity may move and/or develop into the local area after Sunset, into mainly early Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday (mainly before 2am on Wednesday).
There is some uncertainty regarding the Tuesday evening/Tuesday night time period locally, as the bulk of the thunderstorm activity may form and/or move in such a way as to remain to the immediate West of the local area. It will be difficult to assess this potential until sometime during the day on Tuesday. We will continue to assess the latest trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear.
If thunderstorm activity does move or develop into the local area on Tuesday evening after Sunset, it would likely result in areas of locally heavy rainfall, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and perhaps some hail in some parts of the area. Again, this potential will be highest from after Sunset on Tuesday evening through about 2am on Wednesday morning across the local region.
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