Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are expected to form well to the West/Northwest of the local
area (further out over the Hill Country) late this afternoon, generally after 3pm. Some
of this activity may move and/or develop Southeastward into at least parts of
the local area after Sunset today into early tonight/pre-dawn Wednesday (generally
before 2-3am on Wednesday).
The exact track of the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity late this evening and tonight is still somewhat in question. There is a moderate possibility that the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity will turn more toward the South/Southeast prior to approaching the I-35 corridor late this evening. If this occurs, the strongest and most widespread storms would likely remain to the immediate West of the local area later this evening into tonight, with more "general" shower and thunderstorm activity across the local area.
Several of the short-range/high-resolution forecast models have recently come into agreement with this possibility, as shown in one instance below:
In short - it will be difficult to assess the likely future movement of the more organized and stronger thunderstorm activity until closer to (or even shortly after) the time that it actually forms further to the West late this afternoon. At that time we'll be able to gauge the eventual organization and movement much more clearly.
To summarize: While there is a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms locally after Sunset today and into at least the first half of tonight, some question remains as to where the strongest, most organized storms will track. If any stronger, more organized thunderstorm activity does move and/or develop into the local area late this evening or early tonight, areas of locally heavy rain are likely, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and possibly some hail in some parts of the area. Again, this would be from after Sunset today through about 2-3am on Wednesday for the local area.
We will continue to monitor the evolution of activity later today and issue updates as warranted.
The exact track of the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity late this evening and tonight is still somewhat in question. There is a moderate possibility that the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity will turn more toward the South/Southeast prior to approaching the I-35 corridor late this evening. If this occurs, the strongest and most widespread storms would likely remain to the immediate West of the local area later this evening into tonight, with more "general" shower and thunderstorm activity across the local area.
Several of the short-range/high-resolution forecast models have recently come into agreement with this possibility, as shown in one instance below:
In short - it will be difficult to assess the likely future movement of the more organized and stronger thunderstorm activity until closer to (or even shortly after) the time that it actually forms further to the West late this afternoon. At that time we'll be able to gauge the eventual organization and movement much more clearly.
To summarize: While there is a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms locally after Sunset today and into at least the first half of tonight, some question remains as to where the strongest, most organized storms will track. If any stronger, more organized thunderstorm activity does move and/or develop into the local area late this evening or early tonight, areas of locally heavy rain are likely, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and possibly some hail in some parts of the area. Again, this would be from after Sunset today through about 2-3am on Wednesday for the local area.
We will continue to monitor the evolution of activity later today and issue updates as warranted.
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