Rainy during the day today; Strong to severe t-storms possible mainly after 10pm...

...Now thru 3pm Today...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue across the area. Most of the precipitation will be light in intensity, however a few moderate downpours are possible at times in some parts of the area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible, especially between 11am and 3pm. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered thunderstorms.

...3pm Today to 10pm Tonight...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue at times, and an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any isolated thunderstorm activity.

...10pm Tonight to 6am on Thursday morning...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move West to East across the area from around or shortly after 10pm this evening through about 1am on Thursday. Locally heavy downpours of rain, strong, gusty winds and lightning can be expected with this activity. The heavy downpours may result in minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times through dawn on Thursday morning.

A few of the thunderstorms within the above mentioned line could produce wind gusts of 50-60 mph in some parts of the area between 10pm this evening and 1am on Thursday. In addition, embedded stronger thunderstorms within lines such as these sometimes produce brief, "spin-up" type tornadoes in spots. We cannot rule out this type of activity within stronger portions of the line in some parts of the area, especially near and East of I-35. Present indications suggest that the line is likely to become even more organized and severe as it moves just to the East of the area (further East of I-35) into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Average rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across most of the area with this event, the majority of which is likely to occur from 10pm today to 1am Thursday. Locally heavy downpours of rain may result in mostly minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times, which could linger in parts of the area through dawn on Thursday morning.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Heavy Rainfall Still on Tap At Times for Friday/Friday Night...

A significant rain event is likely to begin this evening, peak from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and then end during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Rainfall is likely to be heavy at times especially from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and will likely result in flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas at times. Please see details below...

...6pm Today to 6am Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Scattered showers are likely to develop and/or increase after 6pm today and gradually become more numerous into tonight. The vast majority of this precipitation will be light in intensity. Some moderate showers may begin forming toward dawn on Friday in some parts of the area.

...6am to 12 Noon Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms especially by late morning. Ponding of water on roadways is possible in some parts of the area by late morning, especially where any scattered thunderstorms may occur.

...12 Noon Friday to 6pm Friday - Flood Risk: Moderate...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Some of the more flood prone low water crossings and similar locations may begin to see minor flooding especially after 3pm. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...6pm Friday to 3am Saturday - Flood Risk: High...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Flooding of low water crossings as well as similar low lying and/or poor drainage areas can be expected at times in many parts of the area. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...3am Saturday to 9am Saturday - Flood Risk: Continuation of any existing flooding is likely...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift off to the East of the area around 3am Saturday, however any areas that are experiencing flooding of low lying areas from prior heavy rain will continue to see those conditions through at least mid-morning on Saturday. Some of the most vulnerable low water crossings may remain in flood into the day on Saturday. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 5-7 inches possible in some parts of the area, especially along and East of I-35. In general, the lower end of the range (around 3 inches) is likely in Western parts of the area, and the higher end of the range (around 5 inches) is likely in Eastern parts of the area. If the locally higher amounts of 5-7 inches are realized, it would most likely be in areas along and/or immediately East of I-35, based on present indications. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Flooding Risk...
Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar locations should be expected at times during the Flood Watch period. At this time, the most vulnerable time period for flooding to develop locally appears to be from after 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday. While "new" flooding is not likely to occur after 3am Saturday, high water is likely to linger in any of the already affected areas, especially low water crossings, etc., at least through 9am Saturday, and quite possibly further into the daytime hours in some of the more vulnerable parts of the area.

The interaction of a cold front with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce this rain event across the area. The cold front may slow down and/or stall out for a time along or immediately East of I-35 later on Friday evening into Friday night. If this occurs, then the higher end (5-7 inch+) rainfall amounts could be realized in some parts of the area, especially along and/or immediately East of I-35. If this scenario comes to fruition, other flood prone areas besides low water crossings may also face an increased risk of flooding by Friday evening and/or Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday in that portion of the area.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Significant Rain Event Still on Tap for Friday - PM Rush to be Affected...

A significant rain event is likely to begin on Thursday evening, peak from Friday afternoon into Friday night, and end during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Rainfall is likely to be heavy at times especially from Friday afternoon into Friday night, and may result in flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas at times. Please see details below...

...6pm Thursday to 6am Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Scattered showers are likely to develop and/or increase after 6pm on Thursday and gradually become more numerous into Thursday night. Most of this precipitation will be light in intensity. Some moderate showers may begin forming toward dawn on Friday.

...6am to 12 Noon Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms especially by late morning. Ponding of water is possible in some parts of the area by late morning, especially where any thunderstorms may occur.

...12 Noon Friday to 6pm Friday - Flood Risk: Moderate...
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Some of the more flood prone low water crossings and similar locations may begin to see flooding especially after 3pm. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...6pm Friday to 3am Saturday - Flood Risk: Moderate to High...
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Flooding of low water crossings as well as similar low lying and/or poor drainage areas can be expected at times in many parts of the area. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...3am Saturday to 6am Saturday - Flood Risk: Continuation of any existing flooding is likely...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift off to the East by around 3am Saturday, however any areas that are experiencing flooding of low lying areas from prior heavy rain will continue to see those conditions through at least dawn on Saturday. Some low water crossings may remain in flood into the morning on Saturday. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 5-7 inches possible in some parts of the area, especially along and East of I-35. In general, the lower end of the range (around 3 inches) is likely in Western parts of the area, and the higher end of the range (around 5 inches) is likely in Eastern parts of the area. If the locally higher amounts of 5-7 inches are realized, it would most likely be in areas along and/or immediately East of I-35, based on present indications. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Flooding Risk...
Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar locations should be expected at times during the Flood Watch period. At this time, the most vulnerable time period locally appears to be from toward/after 3pm on Friday through about 3am Saturday. While "new" flooding is not likely to occur after 3am Saturday, high water is likely to linger in any affected areas, especially low water crossings, etc., at least through 6am Saturday, and quite possibly further into the morning hours in some parts of the area.

The interaction of a cold front with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce this rain event across the area. There are increasing indications that the cold front may slow down and/or stall out for a time along or immediately East of I-35 on Friday evening into Friday night. If this occurs, then the higher end (5-7 inch+) rainfall amounts could be realized in some parts of the area, especially along and/or immediately East of I-35. If this scenario comes to fruition, other flood prone areas besides low water crossings may also face an increased risk of flooding by Friday evening and/or Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Heavy rainfall likely to create travel issues later Friday afternoon into Friday night...

We are continuing to closely monitor a developing weather situation for the period Thursday evening through Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similar flood prone areas) especially from Friday afternoon or evening into Friday night. Please see below for details.

...Thursday Evening/Thursday Night...
At this time we expect scattered showers to develop after 6pm on Thursday and gradually become more numerous on Thursday night. Most of this precipitation will be light in intensity.

...Friday Morning...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms.

...Friday Afternoon and Evening..
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times.

...Friday Night/Pre-Dawn Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease by around 3am Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall is still possible at times during this period even as the precipitation ends.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible in some parts of the area. The combination of lift along a cold front and plentiful moisture flowing into the area from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface will produce this rain event. If the cold front stalls out across portions of the local area - which is possible - then rainfall amounts could even be higher than presently indicated especially from Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Flooding Risk...
Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similarly flood prone areas) at times during the period, and especially from Friday afternoon and/or evening into Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. At this time, the period from 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday appears most vulnerable to such development.

As mentioned above, the primary factor to monitor at this time is whether it appears that the surface cold front will stall out across the area (or portions of the area) from Friday afternoon into Friday evening/Friday night. If this begins to appear likely, then concerns for higher rainfall amounts as well as flooding of other than low lying/poor drainage areas may also develop for some parts of the area. Details on that aspect of the situation should become more clear during the day today.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.