We are continuing to closely monitor a developing weather situation for the period Thursday evening through Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similar flood prone areas) especially from Friday afternoon or evening into Friday night. Please see below for details.
...Thursday Evening/Thursday Night...
At this time we expect scattered showers to develop after 6pm on Thursday and gradually become more numerous on Thursday night. Most of this precipitation will be light in intensity.
...Friday Morning...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms.
...Friday Afternoon and Evening..
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times.
...Friday Night/Pre-Dawn Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease by around 3am Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall is still possible at times during this period even as the precipitation ends.
...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible in some parts of the area. The combination of lift along a cold front and plentiful moisture flowing into the area from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface will produce this rain event. If the cold front stalls out across portions of the local area - which is possible - then rainfall amounts could even be higher than presently indicated especially from Friday afternoon into Friday night.
...Flooding Risk...
Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similarly flood prone areas) at times during the period, and especially from Friday afternoon and/or evening into Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. At this time, the period from 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday appears most vulnerable to such development.
As mentioned above, the primary factor to monitor at this time is whether it appears that the surface cold front will stall out across the area (or portions of the area) from Friday afternoon into Friday evening/Friday night. If this begins to appear likely, then concerns for higher rainfall amounts as well as flooding of other than low lying/poor drainage areas may also develop for some parts of the area. Details on that aspect of the situation should become more clear during the day today.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
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