A significant rain event is likely to begin this evening, peak from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and then end during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Rainfall is likely to be heavy at times especially from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and will likely result in flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas at times. Please see details below...
...6pm Today to 6am Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Scattered showers are likely to develop and/or increase after 6pm today and gradually become more numerous into tonight. The vast majority of this precipitation will be light in intensity. Some moderate showers may begin forming toward dawn on Friday in some parts of the area.
...6am to 12 Noon Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms especially by late morning. Ponding of water on roadways is possible in some parts of the area by late morning, especially where any scattered thunderstorms may occur.
...12 Noon Friday to 6pm Friday - Flood Risk: Moderate...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Some of the more flood prone low water crossings and similar locations may begin to see minor flooding especially after 3pm. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.
...6pm Friday to 3am Saturday - Flood Risk: High...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Flooding of low water crossings as well as similar low lying and/or poor drainage areas can be expected at times in many parts of the area. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.
...3am Saturday to 9am Saturday - Flood Risk: Continuation of any existing flooding is likely...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift off to the East of the area around 3am Saturday, however any areas that are experiencing flooding of low lying areas from prior heavy rain will continue to see those conditions through at least mid-morning on Saturday. Some of the most vulnerable low water crossings may remain in flood into the day on Saturday. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.
...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 5-7 inches possible in some parts of the area, especially along and East of I-35. In general, the lower end of the range (around 3 inches) is likely in Western parts of the area, and the higher end of the range (around 5 inches) is likely in Eastern parts of the area. If the locally higher amounts of 5-7 inches are realized, it would most likely be in areas along and/or immediately East of I-35, based on present indications. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.
...Flooding Risk...
Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar locations should be expected at times during the Flood Watch period. At this time, the most vulnerable time period for flooding to develop locally appears to be from after 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday. While "new" flooding is not likely to occur after 3am Saturday, high water is likely to linger in any of the already affected areas, especially low water crossings, etc., at least through 9am Saturday, and quite possibly further into the daytime hours in some of the more vulnerable parts of the area.
The interaction of a cold front with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce this rain event across the area. The cold front may slow down and/or stall out for a time along or immediately East of I-35 later on Friday evening into Friday night. If this occurs, then the higher end (5-7 inch+) rainfall amounts could be realized in some parts of the area, especially along and/or immediately East of I-35. If this scenario comes to fruition, other flood prone areas besides low water crossings may also face an increased risk of flooding by Friday evening and/or Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday in that portion of the area.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
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