With this update we are shifting the focus from wintry precipitation (although that is still possible briefly on Thursday morning but without consequences locally), to the potential for locally heavy rainfall which appears increasingly likely locally on Wednesday. Please see below for all details:
Rain will develop around or shortly after Midnight tonight and increase into the day on Wednesday, likely falling moderately to heavily at times on Wednesday. While moderate to heavy downpours will be possible at times anytime during the day on Wednesday, there may be an extended period of concentrated locally heavy rainfall at times particularly from around 10 or 11am to about 3 or 4pm on Wednesday.
With ground conditions remaining saturated across the area from recent rains, any prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rainfall may result in mostly minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times in some parts of the area on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Low water crossings and similar flood prone areas would be the primary concern in this scenario.
Periods of rain will continue Wednesday night and into pre-dawn Thursday, then diminish by around 10am on Thursday. Storm total rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely on a widespread basis (from after Midnight tonight to 10am Thursday), with some 2-3 inch amounts possible in spots.
Throughout the duration of the rainfall, temperatures will be cold - generally in the 30s - however present indications suggest that we will not reach freezing at the surface level across the local area during the period. Temperatures will reach the mid 30s on Thursday morning, and we cannot completely rule out that some sleet or light snow could mix in at times with the rain as it ends on Thursday morning, but no accumulation will occur locally.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
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