Locally Heavy Rainfall Likely at Times for Most of the Area on Wednesday...

Expected impacts:

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop just before dawn on Wednesday, and then increase into the daytime and evening hours on Wednesday
• Present indications suggest that locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with this activity across much of the local area
• Periods of heavy rainfall may lead to flooding at times, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas, which could extend beyond the time the rainfall ends, into early Thursday morning
• Present indications suggest that rainfall is likely to average 2-4 inches across most of the area, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible in some spots on Wednesday
• In addition to the threat of locally heavy rainfall, a few of the thunderstorms could also produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in some parts of the area during the day on Wednesday

Discussion:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop just before dawn on Wednesday, and then increase in number and intensity into the daytime and evening hours on Wednesday. Present indications suggest that locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with some of this activity, potentially across large portions of the area.

Present indications suggest that rainfall is likely to average 2-4 inches across most of the area, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible in some spots. The majority of the rainfall is expected to occur during the period 6am on Wednesday morning to 12 Midnight on Wednesday night.

Periods of locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding at times, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas, which could extend beyond the time the rainfall ends, into early Thursday morning. While present indications suggest that the rain itself will end around Midnight on Wednesday night, runoff will likely continue into the pre-dawn and early morning hours of Thursday, which could cause a low land flood risk to extend into the Thursday morning rush period. The extent to which this occurs will obviously be highly dependent upon the exact amount and coverage of rainfall on Wednesday/Wednesday evening.

Impacts from low land flooding are possible both for the afternoon/evening rush period on Wednesday, as well as the morning rush period on Thursday. As the precipitation is currently expected to be more in the developmental stages early on Wednesday morning, significant impacts appear unlikely for the Wednesday morning rush time period, but that could change in future updates if significant shifts in timing occur.

In addition to the threat of locally heavy rainfall, a few of the thunderstorms could also produce strong, gusty winds and/or spotty hail in some parts of the area during the day on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Forecaster Confidence (Low/Moderate/High):

Moderate to High