Scattered Showers & T-Storms Overnight Tonight and Into Pre-Dawn Sunday

An upper level weather disturbance will move into the area toward and after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the local area from mainly toward or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 5am on Sunday in association with this feature.

Brief, heavy downpours of rain and lightning will be possible with any scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight. Due to the fact that the low levels of the atmosphere will be cooling, stabilizing and becoming drier further behind the cool front during this time period, severe weather (i.e., large hail, damaging winds, etc.) is not expected for the local area in association with this activity after Midnight tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Thunderstorm Prospects Locally This Evening/Tonight...

A cool front is currently located from near Marble Falls to near Uvalde and is moving Eastward. Present location and movement indicate that this front will move from West to East across the local area between the hours of 5pm and 8pm this evening.

During that time period from 5pm-8pm this evening, there is a chance for an isolated to scattered thunderstorm developing somewhere across the local area in association with the arrival of the front. At this time, we continue to believe the majority of thunderstorm development this evening will remain further to the North of the local area in the beginning, and then develop further South once the front moves East of I-35. Therefore, we continue to forecast that most locations in the local area are unlikely to even experience a thunderstorm this evening.

Any thunderstorm that does manage to form from 5pm-8pm would be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated stronger storm could also produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would be very isolated in the local area per the latest trends, with increasing chances of such activity to the East of the area, further East of I-35, later this evening into tonight.

Otherwise...an upper level weather disturbance will move into the area toward and after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local area from mainly toward and after Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday in association with this feature. Generally brief, but heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms during this time period. Due to the fact that the low levels of the atmosphere will be cooling, stabilizing and becoming drier further behind the cool front during this time period, severe weather (i.e., large hail, damaging winds, etc.) does not appear likely for the local area in association with this activity after Midnight tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Evening and Then Overnight Shower/T-Storm Potential Locally...

A cool front will move into the local region during the early through mid evening hours today. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the local area in association with the passage of this front at that time, and then again behind the front later tonight as an upper level disturbance moves into the region. Please see details below concerning both time periods of potential thunderstorm activity.

At this time, a considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area during the period from after 4-5pm through 7-8pm this evening. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East of I-35, to the immediate East of much of the local area during that particular time period. This trend continues to be supported by both short and medium range computer models at midday today, which tends to lend greater confidence in this scenario.

With the above in mind, present indications suggest that the first opportunity for local shower and/or thunderstorm development on at least a scattered basis will occur from mainly after 4-5pm this afternoon through about 8pm this evening. Present trends suggest that during this time period the threat of a thunderstorm will be highest just to the North of the local area along I-35 initially, and then gradually developing Southward especially to the East of I-35 with time into the early and mid-evening hours. With this scenario in mind, we would remind you that it is quite possible that significant portions of the local area will avoid any thunderstorm development during this first time period (4-5pm thru 7-8pm), and that the activity will not be able to fully develop until it moves further to the East of I-35. That is where the greatest uncertainty lies at this time, and this time period will continue to be monitored closely.

If any thunderstorms, scattered or otherwise, are able to form across the local area during the late afternoon and/or early-mid evening hours, they will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the North and then just to the East of the local area based on the above described trends.

There will be a second opportunity for at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the local area well behind the cool front during the overnight hours tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. This would most likely occur from near or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning would be the primary concern with any such activity should it develop during that time period.

We will continue monitoring short term trends and issue updates as conditions warrant. 

Update on expected local conditions this evening/tonight...

A cool front will move into the local region this evening. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the local area in association with the approach and then passage of this front. The most likely time for scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development locally currently appears to be from after 6-7pm this evening into tonight and/or the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning.

At this time, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event. This trend has not changed as of this update, and in fact, the lone computer model that had been suggesting otherwise has now fallen into that line of thinking as well, which lends somewhat increasing confidence in that this is what will come to pass.

So, with the above in mind, we continue to forecast scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the local area mainly after 6-7pm this evening into tonight, with a rapid increase in coverage and intensity of such activity as the front moves immediately to the East of I-35 later this evening and/or tonight. We will continue to monitor trends and issue updates if it appears that this is changing.

Please note that any thunderstorms that do form across the local area this evening and/or tonight will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the East and Northeast of the local area based on the above described trends.

Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime today, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Late Saturday Evening/Saturday Night

A cool front will move into the local region on Saturday evening into Saturday night/pre-dawn Sunday. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will likely occur across the local area in association with the approach and then passage of this front. The most likely time for scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development locally currently appears to be from toward/after Sunset on Saturday through dawn on Sunday.

At this time it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event.

Any scattered thunderstorms that do form across the local area late on Saturday evening into Saturday night will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, but again, this is more likely to occur (and will likely be greater in number and intensity) further to the Northeast and/or East of the local area based on present trends.

Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime on Saturday, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Expected Conditions Overnight/Pre-Dawn Tuesday...

Spotty showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the local area through 12 Midnight, but most locations are likely to remain dry based on present indications.

We are monitoring an area of thunderstorms that are continuing to slowly develop along a cool front to the Northwest of the local area. This activity is currently located from near Mason to LLano. If this activity becomes better organized and turns toward the Southeast along the cool front, it could move into at least some parts of the local area toward or after 12 Midnight tonight. In addition...other showers and thunderstorms may also develop across at least some portions of the local area as the cool front moves into the area after Midnight and on into the overnight/pre-dawn hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any thunderstorms tonight into pre-dawn Tuesday. An isolated stronger storm may also produce gusty winds upon initial approach in some parts of the area as well.

The primary concern for the majority of the local area overnight into pre-dawn Tuesday will be the potential for locally heavy downpours of rain with thunderstorms on at least a scattered basis. Caution is advised if travel is required especially in low lying, poor drainage or other flood prone areas later tonight and into the pre-dawn/early morning hours of Tuesday morning. This would especially be advised during and shortly after any periods of heavy downpours.

Because the pockets of locally heavier activity overnight may remain scattered in nature for much of the area, it is difficult to pinpoint at this time any specific areas that may be more vulnerable to potential low land flooding from localized heavy rainfall. We will continue to evaluate short term trends through the night and issue updates as the situation evolves and becomes more clear.

7pm Update on Storm Potential for Late Evening/Overnight...

Spotty showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm can be expected across the local area through 10pm, but widespread/organized activity does not appear likely through that time for the local area.

We are monitoring an area of thunderstorms that are currently forming over Mason county, some 80 miles to the Northwest of the local area. This activity is developing along a cool front, and may become better organized as it and the front move toward the Southeast - however at this time there is considerable uncertainty as to how this may evolve.

If the activity toward the Northwest does become better organized, it would not likely move into the local area until after 10pm. Other showers and thunderstorms may also develop across the local area as the cool front moves into the area also after 10pm, and into the overnight hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any thunderstorms later this evening and/or tonight. An isolated stronger storm may also produce gusty winds in some parts of the area as well.

Aside from the potential for gusty winds in spots, the primary concern for the majority of the local area will be the potential for locally heavy downpours of rain with any thunderstorms. Caution is advised if travel is required especially in low lying, poor drainage or other flood prone areas mainly after 10pm and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday morning. This would especially be advised during and shortly after any periods of heavy downpours.

Latest thinking on evening storm prospects...

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible across the local area through 6-7pm. Not all locations will see a thunderstorm during this time period, and in fact, most locations will not see a thunderstorm at all. Those that do experience an isolated thunderstorm can expect locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning with any such activity.

As we move beyond 7pm and especially toward and after 8pm, shower and thunderstorm activity may increase in number across the area and/or move into the area from the Northwest into the late evening hours. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any such activity, and a few isolated stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and possibly some spotty hail in some parts of the region as well.

Caution is advised if travel is required especially in low lying, poor drainage or other flood prone areas mainly after 7-8pm, especially during and shortly after any periods of heavy downpours. 

Update on Periods of Thunderstorm Activity Later Today thru Tuesday...

A weak frontal boundary will move toward the general area from the Northwest later today and into tonight, and will likely stall just to the West-Northwest of the local area during this time period.

Spotty showers are possible across the area during the day today, as moisture streams Northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This activity is not likely to be particularly heavy nor widespread during the bulk of the daytime hours today (i.e., before 3-4pm).

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop mainly after 3-4pm today across the local area. Initially, this activity is more likely to form in West and/or Northwest parts of the area, and then move and/or develop East/Southeast into additional parts of the area this evening after 6pm. The activity may become more numerous in at least parts of the area this evening after 6pm, through about 12 Midnight or shortly after tonight.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any thunderstorms that form after 3-4pm into this evening/early tonight. In addition, a few stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in at least some parts of the local region during the same time period.

Looking ahead to after Midnight tonight - scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue at times across the area through Tuesday. It will not be raining all of the time nor at all locations, but brief, heavy downpours of rain ill be possible at times with any thunderstorms during the period.

Update on Expected Shower & T-Storm Activity for Later Monday into Tuesday

A weak frontal boundary will move toward the general area from the Northwest on Monday and Monday night, and will likely stall just to the West-Northwest of the local area - out over the Hill Country - during this time period.

Scattered showers and a scattered thunderstorm or two are possible across the local area - ahead of the front - mainly after 4pm on Monday, into Monday evening. Not all locations will see rain during that period, but any scattered thunderstorms that do form are likely to produce locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning in the affected spots.

As we move into the period late Monday evening into Monday night and Tuesday morning, shower and thunderstorm activity may become more numerous at times in at least some parts of the local area, especially near and to the West of I-35. Once again, any thunderstorms that do form during this time period can be expected to produce locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning in the affected areas. The activity should decrease in coverage after 12 Noon on Tuesday.

Please note that shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be even more widespread - and heavier - to the immediate West-Northwest of the local area during the above mentioned time periods. This will especially be the case out over the Hill Country to the immediate West-Northwest of the local area as per present indications. Locally heavy rainfall and some strong to locally severe storms are possible in that region - and caution is advised if travel is required into that area especially from later Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.