A cool front will move into the local region during the early through mid
evening hours today. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development
will be possible across the local area in association with the passage of this
front at that time, and then again behind the front later tonight as an upper
level disturbance moves into the region. Please see details below concerning
both time periods of potential thunderstorm activity.
At this time, a considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area during the period from after 4-5pm through 7-8pm this evening. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East of I-35, to the immediate East of much of the local area during that particular time period. This trend continues to be supported by both short and medium range computer models at midday today, which tends to lend greater confidence in this scenario.
With the above in mind, present indications suggest that the first opportunity for local shower and/or thunderstorm development on at least a scattered basis will occur from mainly after 4-5pm this afternoon through about 8pm this evening. Present trends suggest that during this time period the threat of a thunderstorm will be highest just to the North of the local area along I-35 initially, and then gradually developing Southward especially to the East of I-35 with time into the early and mid-evening hours. With this scenario in mind, we would remind you that it is quite possible that significant portions of the local area will avoid any thunderstorm development during this first time period (4-5pm thru 7-8pm), and that the activity will not be able to fully develop until it moves further to the East of I-35. That is where the greatest uncertainty lies at this time, and this time period will continue to be monitored closely.
If any thunderstorms, scattered or otherwise, are able to form across the local area during the late afternoon and/or early-mid evening hours, they will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the North and then just to the East of the local area based on the above described trends.
There will be a second opportunity for at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the local area well behind the cool front during the overnight hours tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. This would most likely occur from near or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning would be the primary concern with any such activity should it develop during that time period.
We will continue monitoring short term trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.
At this time, a considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area during the period from after 4-5pm through 7-8pm this evening. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East of I-35, to the immediate East of much of the local area during that particular time period. This trend continues to be supported by both short and medium range computer models at midday today, which tends to lend greater confidence in this scenario.
With the above in mind, present indications suggest that the first opportunity for local shower and/or thunderstorm development on at least a scattered basis will occur from mainly after 4-5pm this afternoon through about 8pm this evening. Present trends suggest that during this time period the threat of a thunderstorm will be highest just to the North of the local area along I-35 initially, and then gradually developing Southward especially to the East of I-35 with time into the early and mid-evening hours. With this scenario in mind, we would remind you that it is quite possible that significant portions of the local area will avoid any thunderstorm development during this first time period (4-5pm thru 7-8pm), and that the activity will not be able to fully develop until it moves further to the East of I-35. That is where the greatest uncertainty lies at this time, and this time period will continue to be monitored closely.
If any thunderstorms, scattered or otherwise, are able to form across the local area during the late afternoon and/or early-mid evening hours, they will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the North and then just to the East of the local area based on the above described trends.
There will be a second opportunity for at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the local area well behind the cool front during the overnight hours tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. This would most likely occur from near or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning would be the primary concern with any such activity should it develop during that time period.
We will continue monitoring short term trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.
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