A cool front will move into the local region this evening. Scattered shower
and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the local area
in association with the approach and then passage of this front. The most
likely time for scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development locally
currently appears to be from after 6-7pm this evening into tonight and/or the
pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning.
At this time, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event. This trend has not changed as of this update, and in fact, the lone computer model that had been suggesting otherwise has now fallen into that line of thinking as well, which lends somewhat increasing confidence in that this is what will come to pass.
So, with the above in mind, we continue to forecast scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the local area mainly after 6-7pm this evening into tonight, with a rapid increase in coverage and intensity of such activity as the front moves immediately to the East of I-35 later this evening and/or tonight. We will continue to monitor trends and issue updates if it appears that this is changing.
Please note that any thunderstorms that do form across the local area this evening and/or tonight will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the East and Northeast of the local area based on the above described trends.
Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime today, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
At this time, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event. This trend has not changed as of this update, and in fact, the lone computer model that had been suggesting otherwise has now fallen into that line of thinking as well, which lends somewhat increasing confidence in that this is what will come to pass.
So, with the above in mind, we continue to forecast scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the local area mainly after 6-7pm this evening into tonight, with a rapid increase in coverage and intensity of such activity as the front moves immediately to the East of I-35 later this evening and/or tonight. We will continue to monitor trends and issue updates if it appears that this is changing.
Please note that any thunderstorms that do form across the local area this evening and/or tonight will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the East and Northeast of the local area based on the above described trends.
Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime today, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
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