Saturday, April 29, 2017

Update on Thunderstorm Prospects Locally This Evening/Tonight...

A cool front is currently located from near Marble Falls to near Uvalde and is moving Eastward. Present location and movement indicate that this front will move from West to East across the local area between the hours of 5pm and 8pm this evening.

During that time period from 5pm-8pm this evening, there is a chance for an isolated to scattered thunderstorm developing somewhere across the local area in association with the arrival of the front. At this time, we continue to believe the majority of thunderstorm development this evening will remain further to the North of the local area in the beginning, and then develop further South once the front moves East of I-35. Therefore, we continue to forecast that most locations in the local area are unlikely to even experience a thunderstorm this evening.

Any thunderstorm that does manage to form from 5pm-8pm would be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated stronger storm could also produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would be very isolated in the local area per the latest trends, with increasing chances of such activity to the East of the area, further East of I-35, later this evening into tonight.

Otherwise...an upper level weather disturbance will move into the area toward and after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local area from mainly toward and after Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday in association with this feature. Generally brief, but heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms during this time period. Due to the fact that the low levels of the atmosphere will be cooling, stabilizing and becoming drier further behind the cool front during this time period, severe weather (i.e., large hail, damaging winds, etc.) does not appear likely for the local area in association with this activity after Midnight tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

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