Showers & T-Storms to Increase This Afternoon and Continue at times thru at least Wednesday Evening...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage starting this afternoon and continue at times into Wednesday evening. Although we are likely to begin seeing precipitation increase at times starting this afternoon, present indications suggest that the activity will likely become the most widespread (and prone to be heavier at times) from Tuesday into Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the period.

We continue to forecast average total rainfall of 2-3 inches for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible in some spots, mainly where any heavier showers or thunderstorms may become concentrated and/or repeat over the same areas at times during the period. It will be difficult to pinpoint where any such heavier precipitation areas are likely to develop until after the more numerous activity starts to get underway.

Mainly localized areas of relatively minor/nuisance type flooding are possible at times especially in low lying and poor drainage areas in association with any heavier activity. This will likely become of particular concern in some parts of the area from Tuesday into Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday, as noted above.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible at Times Especially Later Monday thru Wednesday...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely at times through late Wednesday evening. The activity will likely be most numerous from later Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening, based on present indications. This is not to say that it will rain all of the time at all locations during this period, but the activity is more likely to occur at relatively frequent intervals during the specified time period.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms, especially from later Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

We continue to forecast average total rainfall of 2-3 inches for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible in some spots, mainly where any heavier showers or thunderstorms may become concentrated and/or repeat over the same areas at times during the period.

Mainly localized areas of relatively minor/nuisance type flooding are possible at times especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. The time period with the highest potential for such conditions will likely be from Monday night through Wednesday, when the activity is expected to become the most numerous and/or frequent in occurrence at times.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Increasing Rain Chances Sunday-Wednesday....

Shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will gradually increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening. The activity is expected to peak in coverage/frequency locally from later Monday afternoon (i.e., after 3-4 pm) through about 6pm on Wednesday, based on present indications.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly from later Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Present indications suggest that 2-3 inches of rainfall is likely on average for most of the area, with locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches possible in some spots where any heavier showers may persist for longer time periods during the event.

As mentioned in previous updates, we do not currently see this as a situation where significant/long duration flooding is likely across the local area. Instead, look for the possibility of localized areas of relatively minor/nuisance type flooding for generally short time periods in association with any concentrated pockets of heavier showers. Low water crossings and similar areas will be most vulnerable to such a possibility at times, especially from late Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Still Looking for Wet Weather Sunday thru At Least Wednesday...

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. This system will continue to move into the western Gulf of Mexico through this weekend. At this time it continues to appear as though this system is not likely to organize into a formal tropical storm or hurricane. Instead, the system will likely remain a "tropical wave" or "tropical disturbance". Regardless as to the formal extent of development with this system, it will bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

Present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting especially during the day on Sunday and will continue - frequently at times - through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday through Tuesday night of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Periods of locally heavy downpours can be expected at times in association with heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms during the period.

Present indications suggest that storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely on average for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 4-6 inches are possible in spots, depending upon exactly where heavier bands of rain may become established and more concentrated at times during the period.

Periods of locally heavy downpours are likely to cause issues at times in parts of the area, especially in the typically problematic low lying and poor drainage areas, especially if heavier downpours persist for longer time periods in a given part of the area. Flooding of low water crossings and other typical problem areas is possible at times in at least some parts of the area during the aforementioned period.

The above information is based upon our current knowledge of the situation and how it appears that it will likely evolve at this time. This forecast is subject to change as the situation continues to develop - so please monitor for later updates which we will issue as conditions warrant.

This is a developing weather situation with much uncertainty still involved. We will continue to monitor the latest trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Expected Rain Event for Sunday-Wednesday...

We are continuing to monitor a developing weather situation for the period Sunday through Wednesday of this weekend/next week.

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and will move into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. At this time it does not appear as though this system will organize into a formal tropical storm or hurricane. Instead, the system will likely remain a "tropical wave" or "tropical disturbance". Regardless as to the formal extent of development with this system, it will likely bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

Present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting especially during the day on Sunday and will continue - frequently at times - through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday and Tuesday of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Periods of locally heavy downpours can be expected at times in association with heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms during the period.

Present indications suggest that storm total rainfall of 1-3 inches is likely on average for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible in spots, depending upon exactly where heavier bands of rain may become established and more concentrated at times during the period.

At this time this does not appear to be a situation where widespread/long duration flooding is likely for most of the local area. Instead, periods of locally heavy downpours may cause issues in some low lying/poor drainage areas at times, especially if heavier downpours persist for longer time periods in a given part of the area at times during the period.

The above information should be considered preliminary, based upon our knowledge of the situation and how it appears that it will likely evolve at this time. This forecast is subject to change as the situation continues to develop - so please monitor for later updates which we will issue as conditions warrant.

Extended Period of Wet Weather Likely Sunday-Wednesday...

We are monitoring a developing weather situation for the period Sunday through Wednesday of this weekend/next week.

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and will move into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This system may or may not develop into an organized tropical weather system late this weekend or early next week - but regardless of the formal extent of development - it will likely bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

With the above in mind, present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting during the day on Sunday and may continue at times through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday and Tuesday of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Depending upon exactly how the situation unfolds (which is not entirely clear at this time) locally heavy rainfall will be possible at least at times during the period in at least parts of the local area, and especially on Monday and Tuesday as noted above. As the eventual track of the weather system becomes more clear, we'll be able to be more specific on the potential for heavy rainfall and any associated hazards in future updates.

This is a developing weather situation with much uncertainty still involved. We will continue to monitor the latest trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.