Update on Expected Rain Event for Sunday-Wednesday...

We are continuing to monitor a developing weather situation for the period Sunday through Wednesday of this weekend/next week.

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and will move into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. At this time it does not appear as though this system will organize into a formal tropical storm or hurricane. Instead, the system will likely remain a "tropical wave" or "tropical disturbance". Regardless as to the formal extent of development with this system, it will likely bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

Present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting especially during the day on Sunday and will continue - frequently at times - through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday and Tuesday of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Periods of locally heavy downpours can be expected at times in association with heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms during the period.

Present indications suggest that storm total rainfall of 1-3 inches is likely on average for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible in spots, depending upon exactly where heavier bands of rain may become established and more concentrated at times during the period.

At this time this does not appear to be a situation where widespread/long duration flooding is likely for most of the local area. Instead, periods of locally heavy downpours may cause issues in some low lying/poor drainage areas at times, especially if heavier downpours persist for longer time periods in a given part of the area at times during the period.

The above information should be considered preliminary, based upon our knowledge of the situation and how it appears that it will likely evolve at this time. This forecast is subject to change as the situation continues to develop - so please monitor for later updates which we will issue as conditions warrant.