Locally Heavy Rainfall Likely Especially this Afternoon/Early Evening...

Expected impacts:

• Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning
• Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early-mid evening
• Locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with thunderstorms especially this afternoon/early evening, which could lead to flooding at times, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas
• Present indications suggest that rainfall is likely to average 2-3 inches across most of the area, with localized amounts of 3-4 inches possible in some spots
• A few strong to severe thunderstorms could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail this afternoon; a more organized line of strong to severe t-storms is possible mainly from 4pm-7pm

Discussion:
...This Morning...
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the area this morning. Outside of any isolated thunderstorms, most of the rain this morning is expected to be light to moderate in intensity for the most part. Any isolated thunderstorms could produce locally heavy downpours of rain in the affected portions of the area.

...This Afternoon and Evening...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in number and intensity during the afternoon hours today and continue until about 7-8pm this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with some of this activity, which could lead to flooding at times in at least some parts of the area, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar parts of the area. In addition, a few stronger thunderstorms could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in some parts of the area this afternoon into early this evening.

It is also possible that a more organized line of thunderstorm activity could move into the area late this afternoon/early this evening, especially between 4pm and 7pm. If this occurs, an enhanced possibility of strong, possibly damaging wind gusts could result, and isolated spin-up type tornadoes sometimes occur with such activity as well. The reason we're saying "could move into the area" is that there is uncertainty at this time as to whether the line will develop to the immediate West of the local area and then move East across the area, or whether the line will not form until the associated frontal boundary moves to the immediate East of I-35 during the 4-7pm time period. This aspect of the situation should become more clear around midday today or early this afternoon, and we'll provide additional information as the situation unfolds.

...Expected Rainfall and Possible Low Land Flood Risk...
Present indications suggest that rainfall is likely to average 2-3 inches across most of the area, with localized amounts of 3-4 inches possible in some spots. About 25 percent of that amount is expected to occur this morning, with the majority of the remainder likely to occur this afternoon into early this evening.

Present indications suggest the primary time of concern for possible low land flooding to develop will be from around 2-3pm through about 8-9pm this afternoon/evening. Depending upon the coverage and amount of heavy rain, a low land (i.e., low water crossing, etc.), a flood condition could linger into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, well after the falling rain has ended (as runoff from earlier rain will continue). If the heavier rain does in fact exit the region by 7-8pm this evening as is currently expected, then any flood condition of low water crossings, etc., should decrease during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, before the morning rush period begins, but again, this will depend on the extent of the afternoon/early evening activity overall.

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Risk this Afternoon/Early this Evening...
A few stronger thunderstorms could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in some parts of the area this afternoon into early this evening. It is also possible that a more organized line of thunderstorm activity could move into the area late this afternoon/early this evening, especially between 4pm and 7pm. If this occurs, an enhanced possibility of strong, possibly damaging wind gusts could result, and isolated spin-up type tornadoes sometimes occur with such activity as well. Details on this possibility should become more clear during the midday/early afternoon hours as activity evolves.