The latest on the forecast, and underlying uncertainties, for this evening through pre-dawn Thursday...

Expected impacts:

• There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening or early tonight, but the majority of the area will likely remain dry
• There is a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening, but the more widespread activity is likely to remain further to the North of the local area
• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday night into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning
• Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any thunderstorms in the affected portions of the area

Discussion:
We know that you depend on us to provide the most accurate, dependable weather forecasts that we possibly can, and that's indeed what we strive to do on a daily basis. However, we are, after all, talking about predicting the future, and sometimes that's just downright difficult to do. This certainly applies to the next 24-36 hour period across the local area.

At this time we are unable to be as confident as we would like to be regarding the forecast, particularly for the Wednesday afternoon and evening into Wednesday night time period. This is because there are numerous variables in play - many more than usual - which will determine the eventual outcome of the local situation. We will continue to closely monitor these variables, utilizing all of the tools, technology and experience that we have available, and issue appropriate updates as the situation evolves. This is one of those situations where you want to continue monitoring our updates for the latest thinking and trends as they occur. Right now, our best efforts have produced the below, and we submit it for your review:

...This Evening and Tonight - Confidence: Moderate to High...
There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening into early tonight, but the vast majority of the local area is likely to remain dry.

...Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening - Confidence: Moderate...
There is a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening, however at this time, the majority of the more numerous to widespread activity is expected to remain to the North of the local area during this time period. If a thunderstorm is able to develop during the Wednesday afternoon or evening time period, it could produce hail and/or strong, gusty winds in the affected parts of the area. There is still a moderate amount of uncertainty with regard to the Wednesday afternoon and evening time period at this time, and we'll continue to attempt to better identify local thunderstorm potential for any necessary later updates.

...Wednesday Night/Pre-Dawn Thursday - Confidence: Low to Moderate...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday night into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning, assuming that some of the activity which forms to the West during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday organizes and moves East/Southeast into the local area. Please be aware that this is far from certain, as there are numerous indicators that suggest the activity will once again remain to the North of the local area during the Wednesday night to pre-dawn Thursday time period. We will continue monitoring for any changes in trends during this time period.

...Expectations with any Thunderstorms During any of the Above Time Periods - Confidence: High...
Regardless as to the coverage of any thunderstorm activity during the above mentioned time periods, locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any thunderstorms in the affected portions of the area. Also, as noted above, any thunderstorm that manages to form on Wednesday afternoon or evening could also produce hail and/or strong, gusty winds in the affected portions of the area.