Update on Sunday p.m. into Monday a.m.

A scattered shower or an isolated thunderstorm is possible anytime from Sunday afternoon into Monday. At this time, we expect an uptick in scattered showers, and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, across the local area on Sunday afternoon. Most of this activity on Sunday afternoon across the local area will be in the form of light to moderate showers, with any thunderstorms likely to be rather small in size and isolated in coverage.

Further to the West of the local area, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop in west-central and southwest Texas late on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This activity will attempt to move Eastward into the local region during the pre-dawn and early morning hours on Monday, but at this time there is considerable doubt as to whether the activity will hold together as it moves further East across the Hill Country and toward the local area. At this time it appears that at least an uptick in scattered showers can be expected again locally during the pre-dawn and into the mid-morning hours on Monday. A few scattered thunderstorms will also be possible, especially as you move into Western parts of the local area (to the West of I-35).

Although thunderstorm activity does not currently look to be widespread for the local area, locally heavy downpours of rain will be possible with any such activity. Rainfall of 1-2 inches would certainly be possible in association with any thunderstorm activity, but again, for the local area this currently appears to be a scattered type proposition rather than a widespread one. Elsewhere, in association with showers, rainfall amounts of 0.5 inch or less would be more common across most of the area. 

Major cold blast on the way tonight thru Monday...

A strong, arctic cold front will move through the area late this evening or early tonight. Northwest to North wind will increase to 25 mph sustained, with frequent gusts to 35 mph from after 10-11pm today through about 12 Noon on Sunday, then decrease somewhat into the 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph range during the afternoon on Sunday.

Actual air temperatures will fall from the lower 50s at Midnight tonight into the 30s during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday and will then remain in the 30s for most of the daytime hours. Temperatures will continue to fall into the middle to upper 20s by dawn on Monday, and then readings will only rebound into the 30s across most of the local area during the daytime hours on Monday once again.

Wind chill values will fall into the teens early on Sunday and continue mainly in the teens or lower 20s through mid-morning on Monday, then rising into the upper 20s by Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will moderate across the area on Tuesday, with morning low temperatures near 30 and afternoon high temperatures near 50 degrees for most of the area.

We do not expect any wintry precipitation in association with this cold front across the local area. 

First Arctic Blast of the Season Later This Week...

A strong, arctic cold front will blast into the local area late on Wednesday evening into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, bringing much colder conditions to the region for the end of the week into at least early this weekend.

On Thursday, North winds will increase to 15-20 mph with frequent gusts to 30 mph beginning in the pre-dawn hours and continuing into much of the daytime hours. Temperatures will fall from the upper 40s or low 50s during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning, through the 40s and into the 30s during the day on Thursday, reaching freezing by late Thursday evening. Wind Chill values will be in the 20s to lower 30s throughout the day on Thursday.

On Friday, morning lows will be in the middle to upper 20s. The temperature will have fallen to around freezing by 10-11pm on Thursday night, and stay at or below freezing through about 9-10 a.m. on Friday, resulting in a very hard, long duration freeze across the area during the Thursday night/pre-dawn Friday into early Friday morning period. Wind chill values will mainly be in the teens at the morning rush on Friday, and then the 20s to lower 30s throughout much of the remainder of the day. The high temperature on Friday will struggle to reach the middle 40s, even with nearly full sunshine.

Another freeze is likely on Saturday morning, but not as hard as on Thursday night/Friday morning, with minimum readings of 30-32 degrees early on Saturday. Temperatures will moderate during the day on Saturday, with high temperatures climbing back into the 50s.

No wintry precipitation is forecast with this event. In fact, no significant precipitation of any type is expected in association with the frontal passage. 

Wetter, Cooler Weather Instore In the Coming Days...

A cold front and upper level weather disturbance will bring numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms to the local area mainly from Sunday afternoon into much of the day on Monday.

Widespread total rainfall of around 1 inch appears likely especially from near 12 noon on Sunday through the early afternoon hours on Monday. Localized higher amounts of 1-2 inches are possible in spots, especially associated with any concentrated areas of thunderstorms during that same time period.

Temperatures will also cool down considerably behind the cold front during the early and middle part of next week. High temperatures will mainly be around 80 degrees on Monday, and in the upper 70s on Tuesday, rising back into the lower 80s on Wednesday. Morning low temperatures will likely drop to around 60 degrees on Wednesday morning and will be in the low to mid 60s during the rest of the early and middle part of the week.

Ahead of the more widespread rainfall activity for later Sunday into Monday, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected across the area today, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. This activity may be slightly more numerous compared to yesterday. 

Please see twitter for real time weather updates today

We are not currently posting on the blog regarding today's weather situation.   Please refer to live/real time updates on twitter.

Daylight hours today will be quiet for the metro. The time to watch is after Sunset and into tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to form well to the West/Northwest of the local area (further out over the Hill Country) late this afternoon, generally after 3pm. Some of this activity may move and/or develop Southeastward into at least parts of the local area after Sunset today into early tonight/pre-dawn Wednesday (generally before 2-3am on Wednesday).

The exact track of the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity late this evening and tonight is still somewhat in question.  There is a moderate possibility that the strongest and most organized thunderstorm activity will turn more toward the South/Southeast prior to approaching the I-35 corridor late this evening.  If this occurs, the strongest and most widespread storms would likely remain to the immediate West of the local area later this evening into tonight, with more "general" shower and thunderstorm activity across the local area.

Several of the short-range/high-resolution forecast models have recently come into agreement with this possibility, as shown in one instance below:

In short - it will be difficult to assess the likely future movement of the more organized and stronger thunderstorm activity until closer to (or even shortly after) the time that it actually forms further to the West late this afternoon.  At that time we'll be able to gauge the eventual organization and movement much more clearly.

To summarize:  While there is a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms locally after Sunset today and into at least the first half of tonight, some question remains as to where the strongest, most organized storms will track.  If any stronger, more organized thunderstorm activity does move and/or develop into the local area late this evening or early tonight, areas of locally heavy rain are likely, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and possibly some hail in some parts of the area.  Again, this would be from after Sunset today through about 2-3am on Wednesday for the local area.

We will continue to monitor the evolution of activity later today and issue updates as warranted.

An Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Tuesday, 5/17/16 (into pre-dawn Wednesday, 5/18/16)

The potential exists for thunderstorm activity across at least some parts of the local area during two specific time periods on Tuesday. The first is on Tuesday morning, and the second is after Sunset on Tuesday evening, into Tuesday night.

...Tuesday Morning...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in far southwest Texas and adjacent portions of far northwest Mexico later this evening into early tonight. It is possible that some of this activity may move and/or develop far enough toward the East to reach parts of the local area on Tuesday morning, but this is not a certainty at this time. At this time we would place the probability of this happening at around 30 percent. If any thunderstorms do move into the local area from the West on Tuesday morning, it would most likely occur sometime from near sunrise through possibly 10am. Brief, heavy downpours of rain would be the primary concern with any thunderstorms during that time, as well as lightning.

...After Sunset on Tuesday Evening, Into Tuesday Night...
A somewhat higher chance of thunderstorm activity appears to be shaping up for the local area late on Tuesday evening (after Sunset) into Tuesday night. Thunderstorms are expected to form out over the Hill Country late on Tuesday afternoon. Some of this activity may move and/or develop into the local area after Sunset, into mainly early Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday (mainly before 2am on Wednesday).

There is some uncertainty regarding the Tuesday evening/Tuesday night time period locally, as the bulk of the thunderstorm activity may form and/or move in such a way as to remain to the immediate West of the local area. It will be difficult to assess this potential until sometime during the day on Tuesday. We will continue to assess the latest trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear.

If thunderstorm activity does move or develop into the local area on Tuesday evening after Sunset, it would likely result in areas of locally heavy rainfall, and a few stronger storms could also produce strong, gusty winds and perhaps some hail in some parts of the area. Again, this potential will be highest from after Sunset on Tuesday evening through about 2am on Wednesday morning across the local region.