Rainy during the day today; Strong to severe t-storms possible mainly after 10pm...

...Now thru 3pm Today...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue across the area. Most of the precipitation will be light in intensity, however a few moderate downpours are possible at times in some parts of the area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible, especially between 11am and 3pm. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered thunderstorms.

...3pm Today to 10pm Tonight...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue at times, and an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any isolated thunderstorm activity.

...10pm Tonight to 6am on Thursday morning...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move West to East across the area from around or shortly after 10pm this evening through about 1am on Thursday. Locally heavy downpours of rain, strong, gusty winds and lightning can be expected with this activity. The heavy downpours may result in minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times through dawn on Thursday morning.

A few of the thunderstorms within the above mentioned line could produce wind gusts of 50-60 mph in some parts of the area between 10pm this evening and 1am on Thursday. In addition, embedded stronger thunderstorms within lines such as these sometimes produce brief, "spin-up" type tornadoes in spots. We cannot rule out this type of activity within stronger portions of the line in some parts of the area, especially near and East of I-35. Present indications suggest that the line is likely to become even more organized and severe as it moves just to the East of the area (further East of I-35) into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Average rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across most of the area with this event, the majority of which is likely to occur from 10pm today to 1am Thursday. Locally heavy downpours of rain may result in mostly minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times, which could linger in parts of the area through dawn on Thursday morning.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Heavy Rainfall Still on Tap At Times for Friday/Friday Night...

A significant rain event is likely to begin this evening, peak from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and then end during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Rainfall is likely to be heavy at times especially from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and will likely result in flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas at times. Please see details below...

...6pm Today to 6am Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Scattered showers are likely to develop and/or increase after 6pm today and gradually become more numerous into tonight. The vast majority of this precipitation will be light in intensity. Some moderate showers may begin forming toward dawn on Friday in some parts of the area.

...6am to 12 Noon Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms especially by late morning. Ponding of water on roadways is possible in some parts of the area by late morning, especially where any scattered thunderstorms may occur.

...12 Noon Friday to 6pm Friday - Flood Risk: Moderate...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Some of the more flood prone low water crossings and similar locations may begin to see minor flooding especially after 3pm. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...6pm Friday to 3am Saturday - Flood Risk: High...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Flooding of low water crossings as well as similar low lying and/or poor drainage areas can be expected at times in many parts of the area. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...3am Saturday to 9am Saturday - Flood Risk: Continuation of any existing flooding is likely...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift off to the East of the area around 3am Saturday, however any areas that are experiencing flooding of low lying areas from prior heavy rain will continue to see those conditions through at least mid-morning on Saturday. Some of the most vulnerable low water crossings may remain in flood into the day on Saturday. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 5-7 inches possible in some parts of the area, especially along and East of I-35. In general, the lower end of the range (around 3 inches) is likely in Western parts of the area, and the higher end of the range (around 5 inches) is likely in Eastern parts of the area. If the locally higher amounts of 5-7 inches are realized, it would most likely be in areas along and/or immediately East of I-35, based on present indications. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Flooding Risk...
Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar locations should be expected at times during the Flood Watch period. At this time, the most vulnerable time period for flooding to develop locally appears to be from after 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday. While "new" flooding is not likely to occur after 3am Saturday, high water is likely to linger in any of the already affected areas, especially low water crossings, etc., at least through 9am Saturday, and quite possibly further into the daytime hours in some of the more vulnerable parts of the area.

The interaction of a cold front with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce this rain event across the area. The cold front may slow down and/or stall out for a time along or immediately East of I-35 later on Friday evening into Friday night. If this occurs, then the higher end (5-7 inch+) rainfall amounts could be realized in some parts of the area, especially along and/or immediately East of I-35. If this scenario comes to fruition, other flood prone areas besides low water crossings may also face an increased risk of flooding by Friday evening and/or Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday in that portion of the area.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Significant Rain Event Still on Tap for Friday - PM Rush to be Affected...

A significant rain event is likely to begin on Thursday evening, peak from Friday afternoon into Friday night, and end during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Rainfall is likely to be heavy at times especially from Friday afternoon into Friday night, and may result in flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas at times. Please see details below...

...6pm Thursday to 6am Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Scattered showers are likely to develop and/or increase after 6pm on Thursday and gradually become more numerous into Thursday night. Most of this precipitation will be light in intensity. Some moderate showers may begin forming toward dawn on Friday.

...6am to 12 Noon Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms especially by late morning. Ponding of water is possible in some parts of the area by late morning, especially where any thunderstorms may occur.

...12 Noon Friday to 6pm Friday - Flood Risk: Moderate...
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Some of the more flood prone low water crossings and similar locations may begin to see flooding especially after 3pm. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...6pm Friday to 3am Saturday - Flood Risk: Moderate to High...
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Flooding of low water crossings as well as similar low lying and/or poor drainage areas can be expected at times in many parts of the area. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...3am Saturday to 6am Saturday - Flood Risk: Continuation of any existing flooding is likely...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift off to the East by around 3am Saturday, however any areas that are experiencing flooding of low lying areas from prior heavy rain will continue to see those conditions through at least dawn on Saturday. Some low water crossings may remain in flood into the morning on Saturday. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 5-7 inches possible in some parts of the area, especially along and East of I-35. In general, the lower end of the range (around 3 inches) is likely in Western parts of the area, and the higher end of the range (around 5 inches) is likely in Eastern parts of the area. If the locally higher amounts of 5-7 inches are realized, it would most likely be in areas along and/or immediately East of I-35, based on present indications. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Flooding Risk...
Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar locations should be expected at times during the Flood Watch period. At this time, the most vulnerable time period locally appears to be from toward/after 3pm on Friday through about 3am Saturday. While "new" flooding is not likely to occur after 3am Saturday, high water is likely to linger in any affected areas, especially low water crossings, etc., at least through 6am Saturday, and quite possibly further into the morning hours in some parts of the area.

The interaction of a cold front with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce this rain event across the area. There are increasing indications that the cold front may slow down and/or stall out for a time along or immediately East of I-35 on Friday evening into Friday night. If this occurs, then the higher end (5-7 inch+) rainfall amounts could be realized in some parts of the area, especially along and/or immediately East of I-35. If this scenario comes to fruition, other flood prone areas besides low water crossings may also face an increased risk of flooding by Friday evening and/or Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Heavy rainfall likely to create travel issues later Friday afternoon into Friday night...

We are continuing to closely monitor a developing weather situation for the period Thursday evening through Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similar flood prone areas) especially from Friday afternoon or evening into Friday night. Please see below for details.

...Thursday Evening/Thursday Night...
At this time we expect scattered showers to develop after 6pm on Thursday and gradually become more numerous on Thursday night. Most of this precipitation will be light in intensity.

...Friday Morning...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms.

...Friday Afternoon and Evening..
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times.

...Friday Night/Pre-Dawn Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease by around 3am Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall is still possible at times during this period even as the precipitation ends.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible in some parts of the area. The combination of lift along a cold front and plentiful moisture flowing into the area from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface will produce this rain event. If the cold front stalls out across portions of the local area - which is possible - then rainfall amounts could even be higher than presently indicated especially from Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Flooding Risk...
Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similarly flood prone areas) at times during the period, and especially from Friday afternoon and/or evening into Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. At this time, the period from 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday appears most vulnerable to such development.

As mentioned above, the primary factor to monitor at this time is whether it appears that the surface cold front will stall out across the area (or portions of the area) from Friday afternoon into Friday evening/Friday night. If this begins to appear likely, then concerns for higher rainfall amounts as well as flooding of other than low lying/poor drainage areas may also develop for some parts of the area. Details on that aspect of the situation should become more clear during the day today.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Cold Weather Impacts to Continue into Thursday Morning...

The strong arctic cold front that moved through the area yesterday will continue to produce a variety of cold weather conditions across the area through Thursday morning.

...Today...

Wind Chill values will reach about 20 degrees near dawn and then slowly moderate up into the 20s throughout the remainder of the morning hours. A few sprinkles or snow flurries are possible before 8-9am, but no significant precipitation will occur.

Anyone who must be outdoors for extended time periods this morning (i.e., those working outdoors, waiting for a bus, etc.), should take precautions such as wearing loose fitting, layered clothing under a coat for additional insulation. Also be sure to cover the ears and wear gloves to minimize exposure to the cold wind chill temperatures if you will be outside for more than a few minutes during this time period.

Wind Chill values will moderate into the lower 30s by around 12 Noon, and will slowly moderate up into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Wind Chill values will then drop back into the 20s by around 6-7pm this evening.


...Tonight and Wednesday Morning...

Temperatures will be at or below freezing from around 10pm this evening through about 8:30-9:00 am on Wednesday morning. This will result in the first hard, killing freeze across the entire area for this season. Based on the present forecast, readings will be at or below freezing for approximately 10-11 hours during this time period.

Minimum temperatures will likely reach the 28-30 degree range from around 4am through about 6am on Wednesday morning and then slowly moderate to around 32 by 9am. Readings will then moderate into the upper 30s to lower 40s throughout the mid and late morning hours.

Wind Chill values will be in the 20s again on Wednesday morning, mainly before 9-10am.


...Wednesday Night & Thursday...

Another hard freeze is likely during the pre-dawn and early morning hours, with temperatures likely to fall to around 30 degrees at most locations from 5-6am to about 7:30 a.m.

Temperatures will quickly moderate after sunrise, reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday afternoon.

Cold Weather Impacts likely Today through Wednesday night/Thursday morning...

A surge of arctic air will bring a variety of cold weather impacts to the area from today through Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Please see below for details by day.

...Today...
Northerly wind will increase to 20-25 mph sustained with frequent gusts to around 35 mph from about 12 Noon through around Midnight tonight. A few peak wind gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times mainly during the afternoon hours today.

Present indications suggest the wind will decrease mainly into the 15-25 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph around or shortly after Midnight tonight.

The strong, gusty winds combined with slowly falling temperatures (mainly in the 40s) will result in wind chill values in the 30s this afternoon, and the upper 20s by this evening.


...Tuesday...
Wind Chill values will be in the 20s throughout the pre-dawn and much of the morning hours on Tuesday - including the morning rush/transportation period. During this time, minimum Wind Chill values are likely to reach the lower 20s especially from near 4am through about 8am on Tuesday morning.

Anyone who must be outdoors for extended time periods (i.e., working outdoors, waiting for a bus, etc.), should take precautions such as wearing loose fitting, layered clothing under a coat for additional insulation. Also be sure to cover the ears and wear gloves to minimize exposure to the cold wind chill temperatures if you will be outside for more than a few minutes during this time period.

Wind Chill values will moderate into the 30s by around 12 Noon on Tuesday, and will continue at those levels into the afternoon before dropping back into the 20s on Tuesday evening.

Early on Tuesday morning, temperatures will fall to around 33-34 degrees across most of the area. A few spots West of I-35 could briefly touch the freezing mark near dawn on Tuesday.  Further West of the metro, a hard freeze is likely across the Hill Country.


...Wednesday...
Temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing from late Tuesday evening/Tuesday night through about 8am on Wednesday morning. Minimum temperatures will likely reach the 28-30 degree range from around 4am through about 6am or so on Wednesday morning.

With temperatures forecast to be at or below freezing for approximately 10 hours, this will result in the first hard, killing freeze of the season across the area. Readings will quickly moderate during the daytime hours, reaching the lower 50s by Wednesday afternoon.

Wind Chill values will be in the 20s once again for the morning rush period on Wednesday.


...Thursday Morning...
Temperatures will fall to around freezing or just below near dawn on Thursday, with wind chill values in the 20s for the morning commute.

Much Colder Conditions Monday thru Wednesday; First Hard Freeze of Season Likely Wednesday Morning...

A surge of arctic air will bring a variety of cold weather impacts to the area from Monday through Wednesday of this week. Please see below for details by day.

...Monday...
Northerly wind will increase to 20-25 mph sustained with frequent gusts to around 35 mph from about 12 Noon on Monday through around Midnight on Monday night. Present indications suggest the wind will decrease mainly into the 15-25 mph range around Midnight on Monday night.

The strong, gusty winds combined with slowly falling temperatures (mainly in the 40s) will result in wind chill values in the 30s on Monday afternoon, and the upper 20s by Monday evening.


...Tuesday...
Wind Chill values will be in the 20s throughout the pre-dawn and much of the morning hours on Tuesday - including the morning rush/transportation period. During this time, minimum Wind Chill values are likely to reach the lower 20s especially from near 4am through about 8am on Tuesday morning.

Anyone who must be outdoors for extended time periods (i.e., working outdoors, waiting for a bus, etc.), should take precautions such as wearing loose fitting, layered clothing under a coat for additional insulation. Also be sure to cover the ears and wear gloves to minimize exposure to the cold wind chill temperatures if you will be outside for more than a few minutes during this time period.

Wind Chill values will moderate into the 30s by 11am to 12 Noon on Tuesday, and will continue at those levels (and perhaps reach the lower 40s) into Tuesday afternoon.


...Wednesday...
Temperatures are expected to reach freezing from well before dawn on Wednesday morning through about 7:30 am on Wednesday morning. Minimum temperatures will likely reach the 28-30 degree range from around 4am through about 6am on Wednesday morning.

This will likely be the first freeze, as well as a hard freeze, of the season across the area. Readings will quickly moderate during the daytime hours, reaching the lower to middle 50s by Wednesday afternoon.