A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening, causing shower and thunderstorm activity both along it and well behind it. Ahead of the front this morning into the midday hours, areas of drizzle and/or light rain can be expected, along with some scattered showers. As the front approaches later this afternoon, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and/or increase across the local area by around 4-5pm and continue into the mid-evening hours before decreasing between 8pm and 10pm. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will then be possible into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning, but will be less numerous compared to the late afternoon and evening hours today.
Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected at times with any thunderstorms especially later this afternoon into this evening. A few strong thunderstorms are also possible, which could produce strong, gusty winds and/or spotty hail in some parts of the area. At this time the most likely time period for any stronger activity locally appears to be from around or shortly after 4-5pm through about 8pm.
Please also note that strong to severe thunderstorm activity is likely to be even more numerous to the immediate East of the local area this evening.
Regarding the threat of locally heavy downpours across the local area, please keep in mind that ground conditions remain very damp to wet from recent rainfall. Any concentrated areas of locally heavy downpours could result in minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times from late this afternoon into this evening.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
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