Update on Thunderstorm Potential Later Today/Tonight...

Expected impacts:

• There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, but the majority of the area will likely remain dry
• There is a chance of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into early tonight but the more widespread activity is likely to remain further to the North of the local area
• Should any thunderstorm activity occur, locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times in the affected portions of the area
• Should any thunderstorm activity occur, an isolated stronger thunderstorm could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in the affected portions of the area
• The extent of any local activity this evening/tonight will heavily depend upon what occurs further to our North and Northwest during the day today; please monitor for future updates to this Advisory

Discussion:

...Synopsis...
A frontal boundary is located along the Red River to the North of the Dallas/Ft. Worth area early this morning. The movement of this boundary during the day today will play a critical role in determining how far South thunderstorm activity will occur later in the day and this evening/tonight. At this time we expect the boundary to stall in north Texas for much of the day, keeping the primary focus for widespread shower and heavy thunderstorm activity to the North of the local area from later this morning into the afternoon hours.

Depending upon how far South that particular activity builds this afternoon, and depending upon whether or not any thunderstorm generated boundaries may develop and drift Southward this afternoon, there will be a chance for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across at least some portions of the local area by this evening and into early tonight. If the majority of the afternoon activity and associated boundaries are held even further North than currently expected, then we will see less of a chance of any local activity this evening and early tonight. On the other hand, if more of the activity and associated boundaries move further South than currently expected during the day, then we would see an increase in the chance for local activity this evening and early tonight.

With the above in mind, it will be important to monitor the progression of thunderstorm activity and associated boundaries to our North throughout the day today so as to determine (or adjust) the precise degree of any potential local impacts this evening or tonight. The forecast below is based on present thinking, and is subject to change, as noted above.

...This Afternoon (12 Noon to 6pm) - Confidence: High...
There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, but the majority of the area will likely remain dry.

...This Evening (6pm to Midnight) - Confidence: Moderate...
There is a chance of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening, but present indications suggest that the more widespread activity is likely to remain further to the North of the local area. This is subject to change based on trends during the afternoon hours today, so please monitor for future updates as the situation becomes more clear today. Should any thunderstorm activity occur, locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times in the affected portions of the area, and an isolated stronger thunderstorm could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in the affected portions of the area.

...Tonight/Pre-Dawn Thursday (Midnight to 6am) - Confidence: Moderate...
The forecast for this period is highly dependent upon what, if anything, occurs on Wednesday evening. Present indications suggest that if scattered shower and thunderstorm activity does occur in parts of the local area on Wednesday evening, it should move out of the area by 2am on Thursday morning. Any shifts in timing of the evening activity on Wednesday could result in shifts in expected conditions during this time period as well, so please monitor for further updates.

...Updates as Per Trends...
Please continue to monitor for updates to this Advisory throughout the day today as storm trends are identified and become more clear further to our North.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates and/or specific alerts/warnings as conditions warrant.