Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Later This Afternoon Into Tonight...

A cool front is moving slowly Southeastward into the local area from the Northwest at this time, and will continue to do so into the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/near this boundary across at least some parts of the local area from mainly toward 3-4pm into the early evening hours. Very heavy downpours of rain and lightning will be likely with any thunderstorms that form during this time period. Due to the expected slow movement of any such activity, the heavy downpours of rain could lead to ponding water and/or minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas in the affected parts of the area.

In addition, a few stronger storms could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in some parts of the local region during this same time period.

Please note: as we move into the mid and late evening hours today, the shower and thunderstorm activity may become more numerous at times. During this time period, periods of heavy downpours (and, of course, lightning) will become the primary concerns, and the potential for flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas may increase in some parts of the region due to repeat periods of heavy rainfall in at least some concentrated parts of the area. This activity will continue at times into tonight/pre-dawn Monday. 

Scattered Showers & Scattered T-Storms Possible on Saturday...

While we cannot rule out the development of an isolated shower or an isolated thunderstorm this evening or tonight, most of the activity will remain well to the West and to the North of the local area once again during that time period.

A band of thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop to our Northwest this evening...and move Southeastward along a weak cool frontal boundary. The activity is likely to both weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves toward the area during the morning hours on Saturday...but some scattered showers and/or a scattered thunderstorm may remain long enough to move into the local area generally after dawn, into the mid-morning hours.

The aforementioned cool frontal boundary is then forecast to stall out somewhere across the local region for the remainder of the daytime hours on Saturday. This may lead to additional scattered shower and/or scattered thunderstorm development in at least some parts of the area during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

As is typically the case, locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with most thunderstorm activity - regardless of coverage. In addition, a few isolated stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and/or hail in the affected areas. This would be more likely to occur with any scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

The extent and coverage of thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon has a lot to do with exactly where the cool front stalls out earlier in the morning and/or midday hours. Unfortunately, we will not know exactly where that will be until Saturday morning. If the boundary stalls to the South of the local area, then we would have lower chances of scattered storms locally during the afternoon hours. On the opposite side of the coin, if the boundary stalls right over the local area, then our chances for scattered storms will be greater on Saturday afternoon. We will monitor trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear on Saturday morning/midday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Scattered Showers & T-Storms Overnight Tonight and Into Pre-Dawn Sunday

An upper level weather disturbance will move into the area toward and after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the local area from mainly toward or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 5am on Sunday in association with this feature.

Brief, heavy downpours of rain and lightning will be possible with any scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight. Due to the fact that the low levels of the atmosphere will be cooling, stabilizing and becoming drier further behind the cool front during this time period, severe weather (i.e., large hail, damaging winds, etc.) is not expected for the local area in association with this activity after Midnight tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Thunderstorm Prospects Locally This Evening/Tonight...

A cool front is currently located from near Marble Falls to near Uvalde and is moving Eastward. Present location and movement indicate that this front will move from West to East across the local area between the hours of 5pm and 8pm this evening.

During that time period from 5pm-8pm this evening, there is a chance for an isolated to scattered thunderstorm developing somewhere across the local area in association with the arrival of the front. At this time, we continue to believe the majority of thunderstorm development this evening will remain further to the North of the local area in the beginning, and then develop further South once the front moves East of I-35. Therefore, we continue to forecast that most locations in the local area are unlikely to even experience a thunderstorm this evening.

Any thunderstorm that does manage to form from 5pm-8pm would be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated stronger storm could also produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would be very isolated in the local area per the latest trends, with increasing chances of such activity to the East of the area, further East of I-35, later this evening into tonight.

Otherwise...an upper level weather disturbance will move into the area toward and after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local area from mainly toward and after Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday in association with this feature. Generally brief, but heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms during this time period. Due to the fact that the low levels of the atmosphere will be cooling, stabilizing and becoming drier further behind the cool front during this time period, severe weather (i.e., large hail, damaging winds, etc.) does not appear likely for the local area in association with this activity after Midnight tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Evening and Then Overnight Shower/T-Storm Potential Locally...

A cool front will move into the local region during the early through mid evening hours today. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the local area in association with the passage of this front at that time, and then again behind the front later tonight as an upper level disturbance moves into the region. Please see details below concerning both time periods of potential thunderstorm activity.

At this time, a considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area during the period from after 4-5pm through 7-8pm this evening. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East of I-35, to the immediate East of much of the local area during that particular time period. This trend continues to be supported by both short and medium range computer models at midday today, which tends to lend greater confidence in this scenario.

With the above in mind, present indications suggest that the first opportunity for local shower and/or thunderstorm development on at least a scattered basis will occur from mainly after 4-5pm this afternoon through about 8pm this evening. Present trends suggest that during this time period the threat of a thunderstorm will be highest just to the North of the local area along I-35 initially, and then gradually developing Southward especially to the East of I-35 with time into the early and mid-evening hours. With this scenario in mind, we would remind you that it is quite possible that significant portions of the local area will avoid any thunderstorm development during this first time period (4-5pm thru 7-8pm), and that the activity will not be able to fully develop until it moves further to the East of I-35. That is where the greatest uncertainty lies at this time, and this time period will continue to be monitored closely.

If any thunderstorms, scattered or otherwise, are able to form across the local area during the late afternoon and/or early-mid evening hours, they will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the North and then just to the East of the local area based on the above described trends.

There will be a second opportunity for at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the local area well behind the cool front during the overnight hours tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. This would most likely occur from near or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning would be the primary concern with any such activity should it develop during that time period.

We will continue monitoring short term trends and issue updates as conditions warrant. 

Update on expected local conditions this evening/tonight...

A cool front will move into the local region this evening. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the local area in association with the approach and then passage of this front. The most likely time for scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development locally currently appears to be from after 6-7pm this evening into tonight and/or the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning.

At this time, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event. This trend has not changed as of this update, and in fact, the lone computer model that had been suggesting otherwise has now fallen into that line of thinking as well, which lends somewhat increasing confidence in that this is what will come to pass.

So, with the above in mind, we continue to forecast scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the local area mainly after 6-7pm this evening into tonight, with a rapid increase in coverage and intensity of such activity as the front moves immediately to the East of I-35 later this evening and/or tonight. We will continue to monitor trends and issue updates if it appears that this is changing.

Please note that any thunderstorms that do form across the local area this evening and/or tonight will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the East and Northeast of the local area based on the above described trends.

Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime today, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Late Saturday Evening/Saturday Night

A cool front will move into the local region on Saturday evening into Saturday night/pre-dawn Sunday. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will likely occur across the local area in association with the approach and then passage of this front. The most likely time for scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development locally currently appears to be from toward/after Sunset on Saturday through dawn on Sunday.

At this time it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event.

Any scattered thunderstorms that do form across the local area late on Saturday evening into Saturday night will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, but again, this is more likely to occur (and will likely be greater in number and intensity) further to the Northeast and/or East of the local area based on present trends.

Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime on Saturday, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.