It's cold - and going to get even colder!

Cold, arctic air will continue to filter into the area through Wednesday morning, resulting in an extended period of cold air temperatures and bitterly cold Wind Chill values across the local region. Some spotty very light precipitation is also possible into early tonight in at least some parts of the area. Please see below for details on all expected impacts.

...Wind Chill Impacts...

Wind Chill values will continue to average the teens to lower 20s through about 10-11am on Wednesday. Within this broad time period, minimum Wind Chill values will average around 10 degrees around sunrise on both Monday and Tuesday mornings.

If you must be outside for extended time periods during the above mentioned time period, precautions should be taken to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the colder temperatures. We recommend wearing loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears. For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the above mentioned time period, and especially during the periods of minimum Wind Chills noted above.

...Temperature Impacts...

In addition to the concern due to bitterly cold Wind Chills, actual air temperatures will also become quite cold during the same time period. Below are the forecast minimum and maximum air temperatures forecast for Sunday-Wednesday (on average for the local area):
Day: Low/High
Today: 29/43 (falling daytime temperatures)
Monday: 22/31
Tuesday: 20/32
Wednesday: 19/47

The high temperature Today occurred during the pre-dawn hours this morning. Temperatures will continue to slowly fall through the 30s through this evening, reaching around 32 degrees area-wide by mid to late evening.

Actual air temperatures will be at or below the freezing mark for an approximate 62-hour period from near 8pm Today through about 10am on Wednesday. The amount of time with at or below freezing air temperatures may be slightly longer in Northern parts of the local area, and slightly shorter in extreme Southern parts of the local area, but 62 hours will be the average across the region. While it is not unusual for the area to experience freezing or sub-freezing temperatures for at least brief time periods in the winter, it is very unusual for the area to experience freezing or sub-freezing readings for such a long time period (i.e., 60+ hours), which is the reason we're calling attention to this particular event.

Precautions should be taken to prevent freezing and/or bursting of pipes, particularly in older and/or poorly insulated structures during the above mentioned time period. To mitigate the risk of frozen pipes, we recommend allowing the cold water drip from the faucet served by exposed pipes. Running water through the pipe - even at a trickle - helps prevent pipes from freezing. It is also a good idea to keep the thermostat set to the same temperature both during the day and at night to avoid fluctuations in the air temperature surrounding the exposed pipes.

...Precipitation Impacts...

Patchy light drizzle and/or spotty very light rain will continue through early evening and then decrease into early tonight. Some of the precipitation may mix with or change to spotty light freezing drizzle and/or ice pellets at times this evening as temperatures begin to approach and then reach the freezing point in a given part of the area. This will especially be the case in Northern parts of the local area. Due to the fact that the precipitation will be very light in intensity and very spotty in nature by that time, no significant impacts from icing are expected locally.

We will continue monitoring trends regarding precipitation and temperatures for this period and issue any updates if conditions warrant.

...Recap of Primary Local Concerns...

To recap, the primary local impacts from this event will be the extended period of cold temperatures (including an unusually long period of sub-freezing temperatures) and wind chills. Please take appropriate precautions as noted above to minimize these impacts during the event.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

An extended period of cold (including sub-freezing) temperatures and wind chills has begun...

Cold, arctic air will continue to filter into the area today through Wednesday morning, resulting in an extended period of cold air temperatures and bitterly cold Wind Chill values across the local region. Some spotty very light precipitation is also possible into tonight in at least some parts of the area. Please see below for details on all expected impacts.

...Wind Chill Impacts...

Present indications suggest that Wind Chill values will average the teens and 20s for an extended time, from near 12 Noon Today through about 11am on Wednesday. Within this broad time period, minimum Wind Chill values may approach 10 degrees around sunrise on Monday morning and then again during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday morning.

If you must be outside for extended time periods during the above mentioned period, precautions should be taken to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the colder temperatures. We recommend wearing loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears. For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the above mentioned period, and especially during the period of minimum Wind Chills noted above.

...Temperature Impacts...

In addition to the concern due to bitterly cold Wind Chills, actual air temperatures will also become quite cold during the same time period. Below are the forecast minimum and maximum air temperatures forecast for Sunday-Wednesday (on average for the local area):
Day: Low/High
Today: 29/43 (falling daytime temperatures)
Monday: 22/31
Tuesday: 20/32
Wednesday: 19/47

The high temperature Today occurred during the pre-dawn hours this morning. Temperatures will slowly fall into the 30s throughout the remainder of the day Today.

Actual air temperatures will be at or below the freezing mark for an approximate 62-hour period from 8pm Today through 10am Wednesday. The amount of time with at or below freezing air temperatures may be slightly longer in Northern parts of the local area, and slightly shorter in extreme Southern parts of the local area, but 62 hours will be the average across the region.

Precautions should be taken to prevent freezing and/or bursting of pipes, particularly in older and/or poorly insulated structures during the above mentioned time period. To mitigate the risk of frozen pipes, we recommend allowing the cold water drip from the faucet served by exposed pipes. Running water through the pipe - even at a trickle - helps prevent pipes from freezing. It is also a good idea to keep the thermostat set to the same temperature both during the day and at night to avoid fluctuations in the air temperature surrounding the exposed pipes.

...Precipitation Impacts...

Patchy light drizzle and/or spotty very light rain will continue into this afternoon and then decrease starting this evening into early tonight. Some of the precipitation may mix with or change to spotty light freezing drizzle this evening (mainly after 6-7pm) as temperatures begin to approach and then reach the freezing point. This will especially be the case in Northern parts of the local area. Due to the fact that the precipitation will be very light in intensity and very spotty in nature by that time, no significant impacts from icing are expected locally.

We will continue monitoring trends regarding precipitation and temperatures for this period and issue any updates if conditions warrant.

...Recap of Primary Local Concerns...

To recap, the primary local impacts from this event will be the extended period of cold temperatures (including an unusually long period of sub-freezing temperatures) and wind chills. Please take appropriate precautions as noted above to minimize these impacts during the event.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Arctic air update for Sunday-Wednesday: 61 straight hours of freezing or sub-freezing temperatures likely...

Cold, arctic air will enter the region beginning tonight, resulting in an extended period of cold air temperatures and bitterly cold Wind Chill values across the local region through Wednesday. Some spotty very light precipitation is also possible from Sunday into pre-dawn Monday.

...Wind Chill Impacts...

Present indications suggest that Wind Chill values will average the teens to the lower 20s for an extended time, from near 2pm on Sunday through about 11am on Wednesday. Within this broad time period, minimum Wind Chill values may approach 10 degrees mainly during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday morning.

If you must be outside for extended time periods during the above mentioned time period, precautions should be taken to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the colder temperatures. We recommend wearing loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears. For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the above mentioned time period, and especially during the period of minimum Wind Chills noted above.

...Temperature Impacts...

In addition to the concern due to bitterly cold Wind Chills, actual air temperatures will also become quite cold during the same time period. Below are the forecast minimum and maximum air temperatures forecast for Sunday-Wednesday (on average for the local area):

Day: Low/High
Sunday: 31/45 (falling daytime temperatures)
Monday: 24/32
Tuesday: 21/32
Wednesday: 19/46

The high temperature on Sunday will occur at Midnight tonight, with steady to slowly falling temperatures throughout the day on Sunday.

Actual air temperatures will be at or below the freezing mark for a 61-hour period from 9pm Sunday through 10am Wednesday.

Precautions should be taken to prevent freezing and/or bursting of pipes, particularly in older and/or poorly insulated structures during the above mentioned time period. To mitigate the risk of frozen pipes, we recommend allowing the cold water drip from the faucet served by exposed pipes. Running water through the pipe - even at a trickle - helps prevent pipes from freezing. It is also a good idea to keep the thermostat set to the same temperature both during the day and at night to avoid fluctuations in the air temperature surrounding the exposed pipes.

...Precipitation Impacts...

Patchy light drizzle and/or spotty very light rain is likely to develop at times mainly on Sunday midday into Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of the precipitation may mix with or change to spotty light freezing drizzle late on Sunday evening (mainly after 8-9pm) as temperatures approach the freezing point. Patchy light freezing drizzle is then possible into Sunday night as well as the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning as temperatures continue to fall.

At this time any frozen precipitation is expected to be very light in intensity, sporadic in nature and will likely be somewhat spotty in coverage. Therefore, at this time we do not expect significant local impacts from any frozen precipitation late on Sunday evening or Sunday night/pre-dawn Monday. We will continue monitoring trends for this period and issue any updates if conditions warrant.

Please note that wintry/frozen precipitation will be more common at times to the West of the local area - over the Hill Country - on Sunday evening/Sunday night, as well as possibly further South of the local area (including the San Antonio area) on Monday morning. More issues with icing especially of bridges, overpasses and other untreated/elevated surfaces may develop in these areas at times during the aforementioned time periods.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on the arctic invasion for Sunday thru Wednesday...

A strong, arctic cold front will enter the region on Sunday, causing an extended period of cold air temperatures and bitterly cold Wind Chill values across the local region. Some spotty very light precipitation is also possible from Sunday into pre-dawn Monday.

...Wind Chill Impacts...

Present indications suggest that Wind Chill values will average the teens to the lower 20s for an extended time, from near 2pm on Sunday through about 11am on Wednesday. Within this broad time period, minimum Wind Chill values may approach 10 degrees mainly during the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday morning.

If you must be outside for extended time periods during the above mentioned time period, precautions should be taken to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the colder temperatures. We recommend wearing loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears. For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the above mentioned time period, and especially during the period of minimum Wind Chills noted above.

...Temperature Impacts...

In addition to the concern due to bitterly cold Wind Chills, actual air temperatures will also become quite cold during the same time period. Below are the forecast minimum and maximum air temperatures forecast for Sunday-Wednesday (on average for the local area):
Day: Low/High
Sunday: 31/47 (falling daytime temperatures)
Monday: 26/33
Tuesday: 23/34
Wednesday: 21/45

As you can see, actual air temperatures will average near to below the freezing mark for a nearly a 48 hour period covering much of Monday and Tuesday. Minimum air temperatures will approach 20 degrees early on Wednesday morning.

Precautions should be taken to prevent freezing and/or bursting of pipes, particularly in older and/or poorly insulated structures during the above mentioned time period. To mitigate the risk of frozen pipes, we recommend allowing the cold water drip from the faucet served by exposed pipes. Running water through the pipe - even at a trickle - helps prevent pipes from freezing. It is also a good idea to keep the thermostat set to the same temperature both during the day and at night to avoid fluctuations in the air temperature surrounding the exposed pipes.

...Precipitation Impacts...

Patchy light drizzle and/or spotty very light rain is likely to develop at times mainly on Sunday midday into Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of the precipitation may mix with or change to spotty light freezing drizzle late on Sunday evening (mainly after 8-9pm) as temperatures approach the freezing point. Patchy light freezing drizzle is then possible into Sunday night as well as the pre-dawn hours of Monday morning as temperatures continue to fall.

At this time any frozen precipitation is expected to be very light in intensity, sporadic in nature and will likely be somewhat spotty in coverage. Therefore, at this time we do not expect significant local impacts from any frozen precipitation late on Sunday evening or Sunday night/pre-dawn Monday. We will continue monitoring trends for this period and issue any updates if conditions warrant.

Please note that wintry/frozen precipitation will be more common at times to the West of the local area - over the Hill Country - on Sunday evening/Sunday night, as well as possibly further South of the local area (including the San Antonio area) on Monday morning. More issues with icing especially of bridges, overpasses and other untreated/elevated surfaces may develop in these areas at times during the aforementioned time periods. 

An Extended Period of Cold Temps & Bitter Cold Wind Chills Sunday-Wednesday

A strong, arctic cold front will enter the region on Sunday, causing an extended period of cold air temperatures and bitterly cold Wind Chill values across the local region.

Present indications suggest that Wind Chill values will average the teens and 20s for an extended time, from near 5pm on Sunday through about 11am on Wednesday. Within this broad time period, minimum Wind Chill values will reach about 10 degrees from near 9pm on Monday through about 8am on Tuesday.

If you must be outside for extended time periods during the above referenced time, precautions should be taken to prevent frost bite and/or increased fatigue due to the colder temperatures. Wear loose fitting clothing in multiple layers, as well as a heavy coat, gloves, scarf and a hat that covers the ears. For maximum protection, a ski mask or other face covering should be used especially if you must be outdoors for greater than 15 minutes at a time during the period.

In addition to the concern due to bitterly cold Wind Chills, actual air temperatures will also become quite cold during the same time period. Below are the forecast minimum and maximum air temperatures forecast for Sunday-Wednesday (on average for the local area):
Day              Low/High
Sunday:          34/46
Monday:          23/33
Tuesday:         22/32
Wednesday:     22/45

As you can see, actual air temperatures will average below the freezing mark for a nearly a 48 hour period on Monday and Tuesday.

Precautions should be taken to prevent freezing and/or bursting of pipes, particularly in older and/or poorly insulated structures during the above mentioned time period.

Periods of Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms Are Likely for Much of the Work Week...

An upper level weather system will move over Texas from the West starting Monday and will linger across the region into Friday of this week.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will form across the local area in association with this feature...but this is not a situation where it will rain all of the time nor at every location for significant time periods. Instead, the rain will likely be occasional to periodic in nature across the local region. While a shower or an isolated thunderstorm is possible anytime during the week, the afternoon to early evening hours of each day would likely be most favored - especially for any isolated thunderstorms. The activity may also tend to be somewhat more numerous on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons...with the activity perhaps being less numerous on the other days this week.

Average total rainfall of 0.25-0.75 inch is expected with this event across the local area (for the period Monday through Friday). Locally higher amounts mainly in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range are possible in some spots, especially in association with isolated thunderstorm activity.

Please note that rainfall will be more widespread and much heavier to the West of the local area - out over the Hill Country and into southwest and west-central Texas where total rainfall in excess of 6 inches is possible this week.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Strong and Gusty North Winds Likely Next Wednesday...

A strong cool front will move South into the local area on Wednesday of next week. The passage of this front will cause winds to shift to the North-Northeast and increase to 15-20 mph on a sustained basis with frequent gusts to around 30 mph.

Present indications suggest the winds will begin increasing between 6am and 9am on Wednesday, peak between 12 Noon and 6pm and then decrease after 6pm on the same day.

We don't typically give a heads-up on gusty winds (of a "non-severe" nature) this far in advance, but with structural and other repairs being made in parts of the area due to recent incidents involving Hurricane Harvey, we wanted to provide as much advance notice as possible that arrangements should be made if any wind-sensitive activities were planned for mid-week next week, particularly on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Harvey Local Update...

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Flooding Situation Today...
Periods of light to occasionally moderate rain likely before 9am and then becoming more scattered or occasional in nature during the rest of the day. Additional measurable rainfall will generally average 0.5-0.75 inch or so along/East of I-35 today and less than 0.5 inch West of I-35 today.

With continued light to moderate rain overnight last night especially along and East of I-35, many low water crossings and similar locations remain at or near flood stage. Caution is advised if travel is required in such areas this morning as water slowly recedes. Conditions should improve more rapidly starting during the midday and afternoon hours.

...Local Wind Impacts Today...
Northerly winds will average 15-25 mph for much of the day, decreasing into the 10-20 mph range by mid to late afternoon.

...Outlook for Tuesday and Wednesday...
The center of Tropical Storm Harvey is forecast to emerge out over the Gulf of Mexico today and recurve Northeast toward the Galveston area later Tuesday into Wednesday. On this track, all of the widespread precipitation will remain to the East of the local area - further to the East of I-35. For the local area, we could see scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity mainly from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Coverage if this activity is only expected to average 30-40 percent, so not all locations are necessarily expected to receive rain, and significant/widespread impacts from rainfall do not appear likely locally at this time.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update Now thru 12 Noon...

Periods of light to occasionally moderate rain will continue through 9am and will then start to become more scattered to occasional in nature.

Additional average rainfall amounts of less than 0.5 inch can be expected this morning along/East of I-35 and less than 0.25 inch West of I-35.

We advise extreme caution if travel is required into low lying/poor drainage areas as high water may remain in some areas into the morning hours from previous flooding.

Northerly winds will continue generally in the 15-25 mph range this morning.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 7am Monday...

Widespread light to moderate rain will continue into the early part of the overnight hours. The widespread rain will gradually taper from West to East between Midnight and 6am on Monday, giving way to more of a scattered type activity over time.

Average rainfall amounts of 0.5-0.75 inch can be expected along and East of I-35, with less than 0.5 inch West of I-35 tonight. Locally higher rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible in isolated heavier showers mainly further to the East of I-35 (perhaps along portions of Highway 21 and Eastward).

Low water crossings that are already in flood will continue in that condition into much of the overnight hours, with some improvement possible in spots by dawn. Many will remain at or near flood level through early tomorrow morning, especially to the immediate East of I-35 (including around Highway 21), and travel is discouraged in such areas.

North to Northeast wind will continue to gradually decrease to around 15 mph sustained with gusts mainly in the 15-25 mph range during the overnight hours.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 12 Midnight Tonight...

Widespread light to moderate rain and occasional heavier showers will continue area-wide into the evening hours. The heaviest showers are likely to occur at times immediately along and to the East of I-35.

Average rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0 inch can be expected along and East of I-35, with less than 0.5 inch West of I-35 this evening. Locally higher rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are possible in occasional heavier showers mainly immediately along and/or East of I-35.

Low water crossings that are already at or near flood will continue in that condition into the evening hours.

North to Northeast wind will continue to gradually decrease to 15-20 mph sustained with gusts mainly in the 25-30 mph range during the evening hours.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Harvey Full Update

...General Overview...
Per ground observations and satellite data, the center of Tropical Storm Harvey has started moving very slowly toward the Southeast and this general motion will continue through Monday, with the center of the system likely to reach the coastline again during the day Monday, somewhere to the Southwest of the Port Lavaca area.

As the center of the system moves slowly away from the local area today into Monday, the overall intensity of rainfall will gradually decrease. This is not to say that additional periods of moderate or even locally heavy downpours won't occur, because they will (particularly during the day today), but overall, the rain intensity today will be less than yesterday (except just to the East of the area East of I-35), and will be even less intense on Monday.

The main problem now is that any additional rainfall today, regardless of the amount, will allow flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings) that are already in flood to continue in flood. The same may hold true into Monday in some of the more stubborn parts of the area, even though rain rates will continue to decrease.

Generally speaking we expect 2-3 inches of additional rainfall today and 1-2 inches on Monday for the bulk of the area. Lower amounts are possible West and slightly higher amounts are possible East (please see the total rainfall map at the top of this image for the 2 day total, which is generally expected to be 3-5 inches for most of the area).

As has been the case throughout the duration of this event, the bulk of the additional rain will occur along and East of I-35, with locally higher amounts possible East of I-35.

Please see below for complete details and impacts by category.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
As noted above, generally speaking we expect 2-3 inches of additional rainfall today (since 6am) and 1-2 inches on Monday for the bulk of the area.

Lower amounts are possible West and slightly higher amounts are possible East (please see the total rainfall map at the top of this image for the 2 day total, which is generally expected to be 3-5 inches for most of the area). As has been the case throughout the duration of this event, the bulk of the additional rain will occur along and East of I-35, with locally higher amounts possible East of I-35.

Any additional rainfall today, regardless of the fact that it will likely be in lower amounts vs yesterday, will allow flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings) that are already in flood to continue in flood in many cases. The same may hold true into Monday in some of the more stubborn parts of the area, even though rain rates will continue to decrease in intensity and/or coverage during the day on Monday.

Please also note that significant flooding of both low water crossings, rivers and streams will continue at least through Monday immediately to the East of the local area - generally to the East of Highway 21 and especially over Bastrop and Caldwell counties where significantly higher rainfall amounts have occurred and will continue (as forecast).

...Local Wind Impacts...
Northeast winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during the day today will gradually decrease to around 15 mph with gusts of 15-25 mph this evening and tonight. A Wind Advisory continues in effect until 6pm today.

Please keep in mind that with ground conditions very saturated and rain continuing to fall, it will take less wind than normal to cause problems with some trees, especially those without a healthy/strong root system. We could potentially see more issues with a few downed trees this afternoon than we did yesterday in some parts of the area as a result.

...Looking Ahead Into Mid-Week...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week as the most outer extreme bands of Harvey may still rotate into parts of the area. Significant additional rainfall is not expected on Tuesday. There is some question about Wednesday, in that some computer guidance suggests that some more substantial rain bands may work back West into the local area on Wednesday, depending on exactly where the center of Harvey emerges along the coast, and how much re-intensification may occur. If it does significantly regenerate and if these heavier bands do reach the local area on Wednesday, then additional rainfall of 2-3 inches would be possible, but this prospect remains very unclear at this time and is a low confidence forecast for Wednesday. We will continue to monitor trends and issue pertinent updates as warranted.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for 6am-12 Noon Today

Widespread light to moderate rain, scattered heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm can be expected to continue into the morning hours today.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any scattered heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms.  We continue to advise that low lying/flood prone areas be avoided this morning, as earlier heavy rainfall continues to run off in these areas, especially low water crossings.

Northeast wind of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph early will slowly decrease into the 15-20 mph range with gusts mainly in the 25-30 mph range by late morning.

Short Term Weather Update for Overnight into Early Sunday...

Widespread light to moderate rain, occasional heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm can be expected to continue through early Sunday morning across most of the local region.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any heavier bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms, most of which will occur in relatively narrow bands that tend to set up in certain parts of the area from time to time. The tendency recently has been for such bands to occur immediately along and especially just to the immediate East of I-35.

Average additional rainfall of 1-2 inches can be expected at most locations in general overnight, with locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches (or possibly more) in any bands of heavier showers (such as the ones noted above).

Any additional rainfall on top of what has already occurred across much of the same areas will cause ongoing areas of low land flooding to continue overnight and into the pre-dawn/early morning hours, especially along and to the East of I-35. Low water crossings and other similar areas are most likely to flood in this type of situation, and these areas should be avoided.

Northeast wind of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph will continue early tonight, and then gradually decrease into the 15-20 mph range with gusts of 20-30 mph toward or shortly after dawn.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for Now thru 12 Midnight...

Widespread light to moderate rain, periodic bands of heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will continue across the local area into the evening hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially in areas that experience any banding of heavier showers. On average, additional rainfall of around 1.0 inch can be expected this evening. Any locations that experience banding of heavier showers for a prolonged period may receive up to 2-3 inches of additional rain in those spots/bands.

Look for flooding of especially low lying and/or poor drainage areas to continue and/or increase across portions of the area this evening. This is most likely to occur in areas that tend to see any repeat banding of heavier showers over time. Such a location right now includes eastern Hays County and southeast Travis County, generally along and East of I-35 including the San Marcos, Kyle and Buda areas, as well as areas to the East of that line. Other areas may be identified during the evening hours depending on where, if any, additional heavy rain bands set up.

We will closely monitor rain trends this evening, especially looking for any signs of banding of heavier rain that may become established in a given part of the area. If such conditions are observed, a Flood Warning or similar product may be required for such portions of the area at times. Such a product is currently in effect for eastern Hays and southeastern Travis county until 11pm.

East to Northeast winds will continue to average near 25 mph on a sustained basis this evening, with gusts of 30-40 mph common.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Harvey Update for Now thru Sunday Evening (and beyond)...

...General Overview...
The center of former Hurricane Harvey will continue to meander around (with a very slow, erratic movement) in the area to the South of I-10 generally 50-75 miles to the East/Southeast of the San Antonio through Sunday afternoon. Most computer models then suggest that later on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, the system will start to turn back toward the Southeast and move slowly back toward the coast through Tuesday (but obviously as a much, much weaker system vs. the first time around).

We say "most" models suggest this because there are some that do not. The other models show the steering flow will remain very week, and the system will continue to move little to nowhere through early next week. Uncertainty in this regard has increased, therefore our confidence meter has been lowered from "Moderate to High" to "Moderate" as of this update. It will simply require more time to resolve these issues and observe the movement of the system until a more dominant steering pattern takes over and finally ejects it out of the region. Hopefully these trends will become more clear once again during the day on Sunday as additional inland data is gathered.

Regardless of how the above ultimately works out, here is what we can expect from now through Sunday evening: Widespread rain will continue across the local area. Most of the widespread rain will be light to moderate in intensity overall, but there will be periods (as we have seen today) of locally heavy rainfall mainly through Sunday afternoon/early evening. Where the exact bands of heavier rain showers tend to set up from time to time will determine who receives the most rain, as has been the case so far today.

In general, we still expect the highest rainfall and greatest potential for significant flooding on a widespread basis to remain just to the East of the area, further to the East of I-35, with the main concern (with regard to flooding) locally being low lying/poor drainage areas, specifically the typical problem low water crossings. This will especially be an issue near and to the East of I-35 based on present trends (which is really not a significant change from earlier updates).

Gusty East/Northeast winds will continue especially into early tonight before decreasing on Sunday morning.

Please see below for additional details.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
At this time we continue to forecast average total rainfall through late Sunday evening (since pre-dawn Saturday) of 3-8 inches across the local area. The lower end of the range will be in far Western sections, with the higher end in far Eastern sections (see map at the top of this bulletin). Generally speaking, the highest totals in the immediate local area are expected to occur immediately along and to the East of I-35, generally from near/North of San Marcos through Kyle and Buda and then into the central third of the Austin Metro. In that narrow band (shown in red on the above image) we are continuing to forecast 6-8 inches of rain on average, but this is highly dependent on exactly where heavier bands of precipitation continue to set up from time to time through Sunday. It is possible that some locations within that band will receive less than the indicated amount, and it is also possible that other locations within the same band may receive slightly higher than the indicated amount, depending on where the heavier precipitation bands set up.

To the East of the aforementioned line - further to the East of I-35 - widespread 8-10 inch (and higher) amounts are expected (as shown in purple on the above image), as we've forecast for several days now.

At this time we continue to expect that the primary flooding concern for the majority of the local region will be in/near low lying and poor drainage areas (especially low water crossings and the like) at times through Sunday. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas. This would be even more likely to occur closer and to the East of I-35, as described in greater detail above (and much as we have seen so far today).

...Uncertainty In the Rainfall Forecast Beyond Sunday Evening...
After Sunday evening is where the certainty level begins to erode even further, with regard to precipitation. Earlier today it seemed reasonably certain that the more widespread rain would taper off for a time by late Sunday evening (Midnight Sunday night), with the lull continuing into Monday. (We still expected to see scattered showers during that time, but not as widespread and generally not as heavy as we saw over the weekend).

The main question now goes back to the comments near the top of the page, in that there is uncertainty as to whether the system will turn back toward the South later Sunday as we've been expecting, or whether it will remain stationary for another 24-36 hours before moving again. This uncertainty has increased during the day today, as computer model solutions have diverged and the system itself has shown a continued erratic movement.

If the original scenario proceeds as expected, then rains will decrease on Sunday evening and we will have a general lull in the more widespread/occasionally heavy activity as we move into Sunday night and Monday. If, however, the system continues to remain stalled out, then additional periods of more widespread rainfall, including some locally heavy, would be possible further into Sunday night and also into Monday. If this latter scenario were to occur, we could potentially expect an additional 3-6 inches of rainfall on Sunday night and into Monday, with locally higher amounts possible especially near and East of I-35. This would be on top of the amounts already forecast through Sunday evening in the same areas.

Another important point to consider: Even if the rain does generally decrease for a time from later Sunday into Monday, there are indications that we will receive additional waves of moisture (both directly and indirectly from Harvey) again by Tuesday into Thursday of next week. Any additional rain that falls during that time period on top of what will have already been received could cause additional problems as we move into the mid-week period next week.

We will continue to monitor computer model trends as well as observations associated directly with Harvey and attempt to resolve all of the above issues as soon as it is reasonably possible. This time on Friday we had hope to accomplish this by today, but it now appears that we need to move into Sunday before these issues may hopefully be resolved. This is an unusually complex situation for this type of dynamic system, with many variables at play (some of which are still unknown at this time).

...Local Wind Impacts...
Regardless as to how the rain portion of the system works out, the wind portion should be somewhat more straight forward. With the center of the system over land for some time now, the wind field will continue to decrease in both size and intensity.

Winds will generally decrease into the 15-25 mph range by 12 Noon on Sunday. In the meantime, look for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph this evening into early tonight, decreasing to 15-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph later tonight into Sunday morning.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for 12 Noon to 6pm Today....

For the period 12 Noon to 6pm today:

• Widespread light to moderate rain, periodic bands of heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will continue into the afternoon hours
• Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially in areas that experience any banding of heavier showers
• Flooding of low lying and other flood prone areas is possible at times, especially in the vicinity of heavier shower bands that may set up in certain parts of the area
• East to Northeast winds will average near 25 mph sustained with frequent gusts of 30-40 mph; a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph are possible - especially South/East parts of the area

Widespread light to moderate rain, periodic bands of heavier showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will continue into the afternoon hours across the local area.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially in areas that experience any banding of heavier showers. On average, additional rainfall of around 1.0 inch can be expected this afternoon. Any locations that experience banding of heavier showers for a prolonged period may receive up to 2 inches (or more) of rain in those spots/bands.

As rain continues to fall and accumulate this afternoon, look for ponding and/or standing water to continue and/or increase across the area, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. Flooding of low lying areas (i.e., low water crossings and similar areas) are possible at times, especially in any areas that tend to see any repeat banding of heavier showers over time.

We will closely monitor rain trends this afternoon, especially looking for any signs of banding of heavier rain that may become established in a given part of the area. 

East to Northeast winds will continue to average near 25 mph on a sustained basis this afternoon, with gusts of 30-40 mph common. A few peak gusts of 40-45 mph are possible at times, especially in Eastern and Southern portions of the local area (including San Marcos).


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Full Update on Harvey with Local Impacts thru 6pm Sunday...

...General Overview...
The center of Hurricane Harvey will continue to meander around (with a very slow, erratic movement) in the area to the South of I-10 generally 50-75 miles to the Southeast of San Antonio through tonight and/or Sunday morning. An area of high pressure moving into the region from the West will start to push the system back toward the East/Southeast by midday and into the afternoon hours on Sunday.

Widespread rain will continue across the local area through much of the day Sunday, before tapering off from the West by around 6pm on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at times mainly today through Sunday morning. Where the exact bands of heavier rain tends to set up from time to time will determine who receives the most rain, but with this update we have re-oriented the forecast rainfall totals (see map at top of this bulletin) to match the GENERAL trends of heavier rain banding thus far today, and what is expected through tomorrow.

In general, we still expect the highest rainfall and greatest potential for significant flooding on a widespread basis to remain just to the East of the area, further to the East of I-35, with the main concern (with regard to flooding) locally being low lying/poor drainage areas, specifically the typical problem low water crossings. This will especially be an issue near and to the East of I-35 based on present trends (which is really not a significant change from earlier updates).

Gusty East/Northeast winds will continue into Sunday morning, and will then gradually decrease.

Please see below for much more details on both wind and rain across the local area.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
Very generally speaking, we are forecasting average total rainfall through 6pm Sunday (since pre-dawn Saturday) of 3-8 inches across the local area. The lower end of the range will be in far Western sections, with the higher end in far Eastern sections (see map at the top of this bulletin). Generally speaking, the highest totals (as well as the greatest level of uncertainty surrounding those totals) are expected to occur immediately along and to the East of I-35, generally from near/North of San Marcos through Kyle and Buda and then into the central third of the Austin Metro. In that narrow band (shown in red on the above image) we are forecasting 6-8 inches of rain on average, but this is highly dependent on exactly where heavier bands of precipitation tend to set up from time to time through Sunday. It is possible that some locations within that band will receive less than the indicated amount, and it is also possible that other locations within the same band may receive slightly higher than the indicated amount, depending on where the heavier precipitation bands set up.

To the East of the aforementioned line - further to the East of I-35 - widespread 8-10 inch (and higher) amounts are expected (as shown in purple on the above image), as we've forecast for several days now.

At this time, the primary flooding concern for the majority of the local region continues to be in/near low lying and poor drainage areas (especially low water crossings and the like) at times through Sunday. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas. This would be even more likely to occur closer and to the East of I-35, as described in greater detail above.

One other note on the rainfall forecast. We are aware that there are multiple sources of information floating around in the media, on social media, etc. that show a wide range of very high rainfall totals being forecast for the local area. Please be aware that our forecast here, as indicated on the map at the top of the bulletin, covers the period from pre-dawn today (when the rain really began) through 6pm on Sunday. We expect the rain to decrease in coverage and intensity for a time starting then, but there will be additional rain produced by this system later next week when it recurves back toward the region once again (we will provide additional details on that in later updates). Keep in mind that some of these media sourced rainfall forecast maps include "Storm Total" rainfall, which would add the amounts of this weekend to the amounts that are expected later next week (since it's from the same "storm") and present that on a single map. The point we're trying to make is that it's important to keep in mind the valid time periods of the product you're looking at, as some outlets may not provide or clarify what that time period may be, so we'd advise using caution when viewing any rainfall forecast that does not specify the time period being covered by the forecast (especially those that use the term "Storm Total" or similar).

...Local Wind Impacts...
On average, look for East-Northeast winds of 20-25 mph to continue on a sustained basis, with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph through Sunday morning. Some peak gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times, especially from midday today into this afternoon. During this same time period, a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph cannot be ruled out, especially in far Southeastern portions of the local region (i.e., toward the San Marcos area and points South and Southeast from there).

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Rainfall and Wind Forecast...
It is important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected, or should the system fail to turn back to the Southeast tomorrow as is currently expected, then both the rainfall and/or wind forecasts above may require revision (generally upward and/or for a longer time period). For that matter, the system could also meander further Eastward than expected which would result in a potential reduction and/or decrease in duration of both wind and rain across the area. While neither of these scenarios necessarily appear "likely" at this time, we will continue monitoring trends closely and issue updates if a change becomes likely or apparent.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 12 Noon Today

For the period 6am to 12 Noon today:

Widespread light to moderate rain, scattered heavier showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms can be expected to continue across the local region.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms. Most precipitation, however, will continue to average light to frequently moderate in intensity on average across most of the area through 12 Noon. An average rainfall rate with this activity is currently around 0.25 to 0.3 inch per hour. The spotty heavier showers and any isolated thunderstorms may produce rates of around 0.5-0.75 inch per hour or so in the affected areas (during the period of time they are impacted).

Significant problems with flooding, etc., do not appear likely through 12 Noon for most of the area. As rain continues to fall and accumulate over time, look for ponding and/or standing water especially in low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., nuisance "street flooding" in some of those areas) especially in any areas that tend to see a few periods of heavier showers from time to time.

East to Northeast winds will continue to average 20-25 mph on a sustained basis this morning, with gusts of 30-35 mph common early and then some gusts of 35-40 mph increasing especially by mid-morning.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Weather Update for Now thru 6am on Saturday

As we move into the overnight hours tonight, periods of light rain, scattered moderate showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms can be expected to gradually develop and slowly increase across the local region.

Generally brief but heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms. Most precipitation, however, will be light to moderate in intensity through dawn across most of the area.

East to Northeast winds will continue to slowly increase overnight, becoming sustained at 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible starting mainly toward dawn.

Looking ahead to the period 6am-12 Noon on Saturday: Rain and occasional heavier showers will increase into the morning hours on Saturday area-wide. A few scattered thunderstorms are also possible. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times in some parts of the area on Saturday morning. East to Northeast winds will increase to around 25 mph on a sustained basis with frequent gusts of 30-40 mph on Saturday morning.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Short Term Update for Now thru Midnight (and an outlook beyond)

As we move into the evening hours today, there is a chance of an isolated to widely spaced shower or thunderstorm across the local area. Most locations, however, will remain dry.

Any isolated thunderstorm that does form would be capable of producing brief, heavy downpours of rain and lightning, but again, most locations will remain free of such activity.

Looking ahead to after 12 Midnight: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin to increase during the overnight period...particularly toward/after 2-3am...and into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. 

Update on Expected Local Conditions from Harvey

...Hurricane Harvey Current Trends and Expected Coastal Impacts...
Hurricane Harvey is forecast to continue in a general Northwest direction and make landfall generally between 1am and 3am on Saturday somewhere in the vicinity of Rockport, TX. The system will likely be a "major" hurricane at landfall, with extensive impacts from wind, storm surge and catastrophic fresh water flooding across much of the Texas coastal bend and adjacent coastal plain. Needless to say, travel is not recommended into that part of the state.

...Expected Movement of the System Once Inland and General Overview of Local Impacts...
Based on present indications, once the system makes landfall...the center is expected to drift Northwestward and come to a stop somewhere approximately 80 miles to the Southeast of San Antonio on Saturday afternoon. The system is then expected to remain nearly stationary into midday on Sunday before turning back toward the Southeast toward the coastal waters later Sunday into Monday. Assuming the stall-out and then Southeast recurve occurs as described above, the center of the system would remain to the East and/or Southeast of the local area at all times - and therefore the tendency for the most significant and heaviest rainfall would also generally be to the Southeast of the local area - generally to the East of I-35 and near/South of I-10. The below forecast impacts for the local area are based on this assumption.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
Based on the above assumptions, we continue to forecast widespread average rainfall of 3-6 inches across most of the local area. Although scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible as early as this afternoon and evening, the majority of the local rainfall will occur from after Midnight tonight into Sunday afternoon. As per the map at the top of this bulletin, the lower end of the forecast rainfall range would be in the Northwest part of the area, and the higher end toward the Southeast part of the area. Locally higher amounts are also possible in spots with any repeat heavier bands, especially near and/or East of I-35.

Rainfall of the amount currently forecast for the local area would mostly occur in the form of numerous showers and some scattered thunderstorms (thunderstorms are actually less dominant in tropical systems vs. regular showers). Some of the showers, however, are likely to produce periods of locally heavy downpours. It will be these downpours that are likely to result in flooding of especially low lying and poor drainage areas in at least some parts of the local region during the Advisory period, and especially during the day on Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas. This would be even more likely to occur near and East of I-35, as noted above.

With the above in mind, at this time, we continue to forecast that the potential for the most significant creek, stream and/or river flooding would mainly exist further to the East of I-35 - to the East of the local area - and further to the South, closer to I-10 and Southward. Much higher rainfall totals in excess of 6-10 inches appear likely in those areas...and possibly over a more prolonged time period as well.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Rainfall and Flooding Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected, and/or should the system stall out just to the Southeast of the local area for a longer time period (instead of turning back toward the coast as is currently anticipated), then the threat of more significant rainfall could potentially shift Westward into at least some parts of the local area. If this were to occur, the potential for flooding would increase across the local area as well (and the flooding potential could then be extended into Monday and possibly even Tuesday in such a case). While this particular scenario does not necessarily appear "likely" to occur at this time, the fact of the matter is that we won't be able to rule it out until we see how much inland progress the system makes on Saturday.

...Local Wind Impacts...
For the period 6am Saturday through 12 Noon on Sunday, look for East-Northeast winds to increase to 20-25 mph on a sustained basis, with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Some peak gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times, especially from midday Saturday into Saturday afternoon. This forecast is again based on the expected current track of the center of the system once it moves inland, as described in detail above. Please refer also to the latest update to the Wind Advisory product for additional details on that aspect of the forecast.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Wind Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected once it has moved inland, then the threat of more significant wind gusts may develop locally over the weekend. Under such a scenario, sustained winds of around 30 mph with several gusts of 35-45 mph would be possible in some parts of the area, mainly from midday Saturday into Saturday afternoon. While this particular scenario does not necessarily appear "likely" to occur at this time, the fact of the matter is that we won't be able to rule it out until we see how much inland progress the system makes on Saturday.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Hurricane Harvey Local Update

We are continuing to closely monitor the development and progression of Hurricane Harvey, which is currently located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...Current Trends of the System and Expected Coastal Impacts...
Since the early morning update today, the center of Harvey has moved more toward the Northwest vs. West/Northwest. The system has also intensified rapidly, and has since reached hurricane strength. The system is forecast to continue in a general West/Northwest to Northwest direction and make landfall generally between 1am and 7am on Saturday somewhere in the vicinity of Rockport, TX. The system will likely be a "major" hurricane at landfall, with extensive impacts from wind, storm surge and fresh water flooding across much of the Texas coastal bend.

...Expected Movement of the System Once Inland...
Based on present indications, once the system makes landfall...the center is expected to drift Northwestward and come to a stop somewhere approximately 40-60 miles to the Southeast of San Antonio on Saturday night or early Sunday morning. The system is then expected to remain nearly stationary during most of the day on Sunday before turning back toward the Southeast toward the coastal waters late Sunday into Monday. Assuming the stall-out and then Southeast recurve occurs as described above, the center of the system would remain to the East and/or Southeast of the local area at all times - and therefore the tendency for the most significant, widespread rainfall would also generally be to the Southeast of the local area - closer to I-10 and East of I-35.

...Local Rainfall Forecast and Potential Flooding Impacts...
Based on the above assumptions, we are currently forecasting widespread average rainfall of 3-6 inches across most of the local area from later Friday evening into Sunday. As per the map at the top of this bulletin, the lower end of the range would be in the Northwest part of the area, and the higher end toward the Southeast part of the area. Locally higher amounts are also possible in spots.

Rainfall of the amount currently forecast for the local area would mostly occur in the form of numerous showers and some scattered thunderstorms (thunderstorms are actually less dominant in tropical systems vs. regular showers). Some of the showers, however, are likely to produce periods of locally heavy downpours. It will be these downpours that are likely to result in flooding of especially low lying and poor drainage areas in at least some parts of the local region during the Advisory period, and especially during the day on Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday morning. Any parts of the area that receive repeat episodes of locally heavy downpours would be particularly vulnerable to such flooding, especially at low water crossings and similar areas.

With the above in mind, at this time, we continue to forecast that the potential for significant creek, stream and/or river flooding would mainly exist further to the East of I-35 - to the East of the local area - and further to the South, closer to I-10 and Southward. Much higher rainfall totals in excess of 6 inches appear likely in those areas...and possibly over a more prolonged time period as well.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Rainfall and Flooding Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected, and/or should the system stall out just to the Southeast of the local area instead of turning back toward the coast as is currently anticipated, then the threat of more significant rainfall would potentially shift deeper into the local area, and increased flooding potential could occur as a result (also, the flooding potential could then be extended into Monday and possibly even Tuesday if such a scenario were to occur). Present indications suggest that it will be difficult for us to confidently express whether or not such a change in movement is possible until the system has already made landfall and has progressed inland for a number of miles. This would most likely be sometime during the day on Saturday, based on present indications.

...Local Wind Impacts...
During the period from 6am Saturday through 12 Noon on Sunday, look for East-Northeast winds of 20-25 mph on a sustained basis, with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Some peak gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times, especially on Saturday afternoon and/or evening. This forecast is again based on the expected current track of the center of the system once it moves inland, as described in detail above.

...Important Note on Potential Changes to the Wind Impact Portion of the Forecast...
It is very important to note that should the center of Harvey shift significantly West/Northwestward vs. what is currently expected once it has moved inland, then the threat of more significant wind gusts may develop locally over the weekend. Under such a scenario, sustained winds of around 30 mph with several gusts of 35-45 mph would be possible in some parts of the area, mainly on Saturday afternoon or evening. It will be difficult to tell whether or not this scenario is possible until we've been able to track the inland progression of the system on Friday night into early Saturday. At this time we will continue with the current "most likely" scenario described in the "Local Wind Impacts" section noted above. If changes in the track appear likely to occur, we will update the forecast accordingly as soon as those conditions appear probable.

We will continue closely monitoring the progression of this system and issue updates as conditions warrant. 

Weather Update for Now thru 6pm...

As we proceed further into the afternoon hours, isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will form across at least some parts of the local region.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with any isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon.

Looking ahead to toward/after 6pm: Shower and thunderstorm activity may increase in number in some parts of the local region into the evening hours. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms during this time period as well.

As always, caution is advised if travel is required in low lying/flood prone areas during and shortly after any periods of localized heavy downpours.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Later This Afternoon Into Tonight...

A cool front is moving slowly Southeastward into the local area from the Northwest at this time, and will continue to do so into the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along/near this boundary across at least some parts of the local area from mainly toward 3-4pm into the early evening hours. Very heavy downpours of rain and lightning will be likely with any thunderstorms that form during this time period. Due to the expected slow movement of any such activity, the heavy downpours of rain could lead to ponding water and/or minor flooding in low lying and poor drainage areas in the affected parts of the area.

In addition, a few stronger storms could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in some parts of the local region during this same time period.

Please note: as we move into the mid and late evening hours today, the shower and thunderstorm activity may become more numerous at times. During this time period, periods of heavy downpours (and, of course, lightning) will become the primary concerns, and the potential for flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas may increase in some parts of the region due to repeat periods of heavy rainfall in at least some concentrated parts of the area. This activity will continue at times into tonight/pre-dawn Monday. 

Scattered Showers & Scattered T-Storms Possible on Saturday...

While we cannot rule out the development of an isolated shower or an isolated thunderstorm this evening or tonight, most of the activity will remain well to the West and to the North of the local area once again during that time period.

A band of thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop to our Northwest this evening...and move Southeastward along a weak cool frontal boundary. The activity is likely to both weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves toward the area during the morning hours on Saturday...but some scattered showers and/or a scattered thunderstorm may remain long enough to move into the local area generally after dawn, into the mid-morning hours.

The aforementioned cool frontal boundary is then forecast to stall out somewhere across the local region for the remainder of the daytime hours on Saturday. This may lead to additional scattered shower and/or scattered thunderstorm development in at least some parts of the area during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

As is typically the case, locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with most thunderstorm activity - regardless of coverage. In addition, a few isolated stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and/or hail in the affected areas. This would be more likely to occur with any scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

The extent and coverage of thunderstorm activity on Saturday afternoon has a lot to do with exactly where the cool front stalls out earlier in the morning and/or midday hours. Unfortunately, we will not know exactly where that will be until Saturday morning. If the boundary stalls to the South of the local area, then we would have lower chances of scattered storms locally during the afternoon hours. On the opposite side of the coin, if the boundary stalls right over the local area, then our chances for scattered storms will be greater on Saturday afternoon. We will monitor trends and issue updates as this becomes more clear on Saturday morning/midday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Scattered Showers & T-Storms Overnight Tonight and Into Pre-Dawn Sunday

An upper level weather disturbance will move into the area toward and after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across the local area from mainly toward or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 5am on Sunday in association with this feature.

Brief, heavy downpours of rain and lightning will be possible with any scattered thunderstorms overnight tonight. Due to the fact that the low levels of the atmosphere will be cooling, stabilizing and becoming drier further behind the cool front during this time period, severe weather (i.e., large hail, damaging winds, etc.) is not expected for the local area in association with this activity after Midnight tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Thunderstorm Prospects Locally This Evening/Tonight...

A cool front is currently located from near Marble Falls to near Uvalde and is moving Eastward. Present location and movement indicate that this front will move from West to East across the local area between the hours of 5pm and 8pm this evening.

During that time period from 5pm-8pm this evening, there is a chance for an isolated to scattered thunderstorm developing somewhere across the local area in association with the arrival of the front. At this time, we continue to believe the majority of thunderstorm development this evening will remain further to the North of the local area in the beginning, and then develop further South once the front moves East of I-35. Therefore, we continue to forecast that most locations in the local area are unlikely to even experience a thunderstorm this evening.

Any thunderstorm that does manage to form from 5pm-8pm would be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated stronger storm could also produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would be very isolated in the local area per the latest trends, with increasing chances of such activity to the East of the area, further East of I-35, later this evening into tonight.

Otherwise...an upper level weather disturbance will move into the area toward and after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local area from mainly toward and after Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday in association with this feature. Generally brief, but heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with any thunderstorms during this time period. Due to the fact that the low levels of the atmosphere will be cooling, stabilizing and becoming drier further behind the cool front during this time period, severe weather (i.e., large hail, damaging winds, etc.) does not appear likely for the local area in association with this activity after Midnight tonight into pre-dawn Sunday.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Evening and Then Overnight Shower/T-Storm Potential Locally...

A cool front will move into the local region during the early through mid evening hours today. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the local area in association with the passage of this front at that time, and then again behind the front later tonight as an upper level disturbance moves into the region. Please see details below concerning both time periods of potential thunderstorm activity.

At this time, a considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area during the period from after 4-5pm through 7-8pm this evening. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East of I-35, to the immediate East of much of the local area during that particular time period. This trend continues to be supported by both short and medium range computer models at midday today, which tends to lend greater confidence in this scenario.

With the above in mind, present indications suggest that the first opportunity for local shower and/or thunderstorm development on at least a scattered basis will occur from mainly after 4-5pm this afternoon through about 8pm this evening. Present trends suggest that during this time period the threat of a thunderstorm will be highest just to the North of the local area along I-35 initially, and then gradually developing Southward especially to the East of I-35 with time into the early and mid-evening hours. With this scenario in mind, we would remind you that it is quite possible that significant portions of the local area will avoid any thunderstorm development during this first time period (4-5pm thru 7-8pm), and that the activity will not be able to fully develop until it moves further to the East of I-35. That is where the greatest uncertainty lies at this time, and this time period will continue to be monitored closely.

If any thunderstorms, scattered or otherwise, are able to form across the local area during the late afternoon and/or early-mid evening hours, they will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the North and then just to the East of the local area based on the above described trends.

There will be a second opportunity for at least scattered shower and thunderstorm development across the local area well behind the cool front during the overnight hours tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. This would most likely occur from near or shortly after 12 Midnight tonight through about 4-5am on Sunday. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning would be the primary concern with any such activity should it develop during that time period.

We will continue monitoring short term trends and issue updates as conditions warrant. 

Update on expected local conditions this evening/tonight...

A cool front will move into the local region this evening. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the local area in association with the approach and then passage of this front. The most likely time for scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development locally currently appears to be from after 6-7pm this evening into tonight and/or the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning.

At this time, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent that thunderstorm activity will be able to form across the local area. As we've been advising for the last 2-3 days, it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event. This trend has not changed as of this update, and in fact, the lone computer model that had been suggesting otherwise has now fallen into that line of thinking as well, which lends somewhat increasing confidence in that this is what will come to pass.

So, with the above in mind, we continue to forecast scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the local area mainly after 6-7pm this evening into tonight, with a rapid increase in coverage and intensity of such activity as the front moves immediately to the East of I-35 later this evening and/or tonight. We will continue to monitor trends and issue updates if it appears that this is changing.

Please note that any thunderstorms that do form across the local area this evening and/or tonight will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated or scattered stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, with gusty winds and/or spotty hail being the primary concern with any such activity. Again, this is more likely to occur (and will most likely be greater in number and intensity) just to the East and Northeast of the local area based on the above described trends.

Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime today, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Thunderstorm Potential for Late Saturday Evening/Saturday Night

A cool front will move into the local region on Saturday evening into Saturday night/pre-dawn Sunday. Scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development will likely occur across the local area in association with the approach and then passage of this front. The most likely time for scattered shower and scattered thunderstorm development locally currently appears to be from toward/after Sunset on Saturday through dawn on Sunday.

At this time it appears that thunderstorm activity will be more numerous and heavier generally to the East and Northeast of I-35, to the immediate East and Northeast of much of the local area in association with this event.

Any scattered thunderstorms that do form across the local area late on Saturday evening into Saturday night will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning. An isolated stronger thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during this time period, but again, this is more likely to occur (and will likely be greater in number and intensity) further to the Northeast and/or East of the local area based on present trends.

Ahead of the above mentioned activity...scattered patches of light rain and/or patches of drizzle will be possible across the local area most anytime on Saturday, but especially during the morning hours. This will be in association with moisture streaming back into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Expected Conditions Overnight/Pre-Dawn Tuesday...

Spotty showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the local area through 12 Midnight, but most locations are likely to remain dry based on present indications.

We are monitoring an area of thunderstorms that are continuing to slowly develop along a cool front to the Northwest of the local area. This activity is currently located from near Mason to LLano. If this activity becomes better organized and turns toward the Southeast along the cool front, it could move into at least some parts of the local area toward or after 12 Midnight tonight. In addition...other showers and thunderstorms may also develop across at least some portions of the local area as the cool front moves into the area after Midnight and on into the overnight/pre-dawn hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any thunderstorms tonight into pre-dawn Tuesday. An isolated stronger storm may also produce gusty winds upon initial approach in some parts of the area as well.

The primary concern for the majority of the local area overnight into pre-dawn Tuesday will be the potential for locally heavy downpours of rain with thunderstorms on at least a scattered basis. Caution is advised if travel is required especially in low lying, poor drainage or other flood prone areas later tonight and into the pre-dawn/early morning hours of Tuesday morning. This would especially be advised during and shortly after any periods of heavy downpours.

Because the pockets of locally heavier activity overnight may remain scattered in nature for much of the area, it is difficult to pinpoint at this time any specific areas that may be more vulnerable to potential low land flooding from localized heavy rainfall. We will continue to evaluate short term trends through the night and issue updates as the situation evolves and becomes more clear.

7pm Update on Storm Potential for Late Evening/Overnight...

Spotty showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm can be expected across the local area through 10pm, but widespread/organized activity does not appear likely through that time for the local area.

We are monitoring an area of thunderstorms that are currently forming over Mason county, some 80 miles to the Northwest of the local area. This activity is developing along a cool front, and may become better organized as it and the front move toward the Southeast - however at this time there is considerable uncertainty as to how this may evolve.

If the activity toward the Northwest does become better organized, it would not likely move into the local area until after 10pm. Other showers and thunderstorms may also develop across the local area as the cool front moves into the area also after 10pm, and into the overnight hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any thunderstorms later this evening and/or tonight. An isolated stronger storm may also produce gusty winds in some parts of the area as well.

Aside from the potential for gusty winds in spots, the primary concern for the majority of the local area will be the potential for locally heavy downpours of rain with any thunderstorms. Caution is advised if travel is required especially in low lying, poor drainage or other flood prone areas mainly after 10pm and into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday morning. This would especially be advised during and shortly after any periods of heavy downpours.

Latest thinking on evening storm prospects...

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible across the local area through 6-7pm. Not all locations will see a thunderstorm during this time period, and in fact, most locations will not see a thunderstorm at all. Those that do experience an isolated thunderstorm can expect locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning with any such activity.

As we move beyond 7pm and especially toward and after 8pm, shower and thunderstorm activity may increase in number across the area and/or move into the area from the Northwest into the late evening hours. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any such activity, and a few isolated stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and possibly some spotty hail in some parts of the region as well.

Caution is advised if travel is required especially in low lying, poor drainage or other flood prone areas mainly after 7-8pm, especially during and shortly after any periods of heavy downpours. 

Update on Periods of Thunderstorm Activity Later Today thru Tuesday...

A weak frontal boundary will move toward the general area from the Northwest later today and into tonight, and will likely stall just to the West-Northwest of the local area during this time period.

Spotty showers are possible across the area during the day today, as moisture streams Northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This activity is not likely to be particularly heavy nor widespread during the bulk of the daytime hours today (i.e., before 3-4pm).

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop mainly after 3-4pm today across the local area. Initially, this activity is more likely to form in West and/or Northwest parts of the area, and then move and/or develop East/Southeast into additional parts of the area this evening after 6pm. The activity may become more numerous in at least parts of the area this evening after 6pm, through about 12 Midnight or shortly after tonight.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning are likely with any thunderstorms that form after 3-4pm into this evening/early tonight. In addition, a few stronger storms may also produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in at least some parts of the local region during the same time period.

Looking ahead to after Midnight tonight - scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue at times across the area through Tuesday. It will not be raining all of the time nor at all locations, but brief, heavy downpours of rain ill be possible at times with any thunderstorms during the period.