At this time we expect majority of t-storm activity to continue to remain to our North...

Expected impacts:

• There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, but the majority of the area will likely remain dry based on present indications
• Depending on the evolution of thunderstorm activity to our North and Northwest later this evening, showers and thunderstorms could move into some parts of the local area during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday
• Should thunderstorms occur later tonight, locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected in the affected areas

Discussion:
...Synopsis...
So far today, thunderstorm development has remained along the Red River and into extreme Northwest parts of Texas - well to the North of the local region. This is due to the fact that the surface boundary that we discussed in the morning update has remained nearly stationary, focusing the activity in that region. Present indications suggest that trend will continue in the near term.

Depending upon how the activity in northwest and north Texas evolves later this evening, we could see at least some parts of the local area impacted by shower and thunderstorm activity mainly toward/after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday, but this remains a very uncertain proposition at this time. We will need to continue monitoring thunderstorm trends into the evening hours to see if any congealment and Southward motion begins to take place. Right now, all of the referenced activity is moving Northeastward across northern portions of Texas.

Please see below for current thinking on the local forecast concerns.

...This Afternoon and Evening (Now thru Midnight) - Confidence: Moderate to High...
There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but the majority of the area will likely remain dry. While the chance of a thunderstorm locally currently appears to be remote at best during the period, if a thunderstorm is able to develop it could produce strong, possibly damaging wind gusts and large hail in the impacted portion of the area.

...Tonight/Pre-Dawn Thursday (Midnight to 6am) - Confidence: Moderate...
The forecast for this period continues to be highly dependent upon what, if anything, occurs to our North and Northwest this evening. Present indications suggest that if any parts of the local area were to be impacted by shower or thunderstorm activity, it would most likely be after Midnight tonight, into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning would be likely with any such activity. However, there are considerable factors that currently suggest that all of the activity may remain to the North of the local area, even into the overnight hours.  We will continue to monitor storm trends and issue further updates as the situation evolves.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.