Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the area this afternoon...

...Synopsis...
An area of showers and thunderstorms currently over west-central and northwest Texas will continue moving Eastward and Northeastward throughout the day today. If we were to consider only the present location and movement of this activity, all of it would remain to the North of the local area, with no local impacts of any kind. However, a boundary associated with this activity will move East/Southeast into the local area between the hours of 12 Noon and 6pm this afternoon. The potential exists for at least scattered thunderstorm development in association with the passage of this boundary during the above mentioned time period.

...Local Forecast...
There are 3 possible scenarios that could unfold for the local area at this time, all of which would occur sometime (as indicated below) during the 12 Noon-6pm time frame:

1. With the majority of the energy associated with the parent storm system passing to the North of the local area, thunderstorms are unable to develop locally, and all of the thunderstorm activity remains to the North of the local area. Probability of occurrence: 30 percent.

2. Scattered thunderstorms develop across the area between 12 Noon and 6pm this afternoon. Probability of occurrence: 60 percent. Please note: this doesn't mean that 60 percent of the area will have thunderstorms, but rather, there's a 60 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms across the local area. Some locations may receive rain and/or a thunderstorm while others, possibly very nearby, do not. Based on present indications, under this scenario we would place the probability of a thunderstorm impacting any given location at about 40 percent.

3. A line of thunderstorms moves from West/Northwest to East/Southeast across the area between 12 Noon and 3pm, with scattered activity behind it through 6pm this afternoon. Probability of occurrence: 10 percent.

With the above in mind, we currently expect scattered showers and thunderstorms from around or shortly after 12 Noon through about 6pm this afternoon. Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected with any scattered thunderstorms, and an isolated to scattered stronger thunderstorm may also produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail in the affected portion(s) of the area. Present indications suggest the activity will be more numerous, and heavier, to the immediate North of the local area during the period.

...Locally Heavy Rainfall...
Although widespread, heavy rainfall does not currently appear likely across the local area, any isolated to scattered concentrations of heavier downpours could result in minor, mostly localized flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas in the affected portion(s) of the region. The potential for more numerous issues will likely increase as you move further to the North of the local area.



We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates and/or specific alerts/warnings as conditions warrant.