Expected impacts:
- Periods of showers and
thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at several different
times mainly from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday morning
- With ground conditions already
saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will
likely result at least at times during the period
- Initially, the typical problem
low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the
primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible in parts of
the area over time
- On average, rainfall of 4-6
inches is expected for much of the area from mainly Tuesday afternoon
through early Saturday morning
- Locally higher (and in some
cases, lower) amounts are possible in spots depending upon exactly where
the heavier thunderstorms track throughout the period
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at several different times across the area from Tuesday afternoon through Saturday morning. With ground conditions already saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will likely result at least at times during the period. Initially, the typical problem low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible in parts of the area over time. Please see below for a general overview of our present thinking for each day during the period:
...Today...
There is a chance for an isolated or widely spaced shower or thunderstorm across some portions of the local area mainly this afternoon or early this evening. While any such activity is expected to be isolated in nature at this time, if locally heavy downpours with an isolated thunderstorm occur in just the wrong place, then some mostly minor flooding issues could result in the adjacent low lying areas. Present indications suggest activity is more likely to occur to the immediate South of the local area today, but we'll continue to monitor trends closely.
...Tuesday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the afternoon hours, from 12 Noon to 6pm.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: Moderate
River/Stream Flood Risk: Low
...Wednesday...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the midday and afternoon hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate
...Thursday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis
...Friday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the morning hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis
...Saturday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the pre-dawn and early morning hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High (pre-dawn/early a.m.)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis
...Expected Rainfall Amounts...
In general --to repeat-- in general, rainfall of 4-6 inches appears probable for most of the area on average throughout the period Tuesday (mainly afternoon) through Saturday morning. We emphasized the "in general" detail because of the fact that actual amounts will widely vary based on thunderstorm tracks throughout the period. A few locations that receive particularly frequent bouts of heavier rain could see greater than 6 inches, while a few locations that don't receive as many heavy downpours could see less than 4 inches. It is also important to remember that ground conditions are already saturated going into this event, and stream/river levels are already running above normal levels across many parts of the area. Both of those factors indicate it will take less rain than normal to cause flooding issues at least at times across the area.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue specific updates, alerts and/or warnings as conditions warrant.
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