Scattered Heavy Downpours Possible Beginning Today, Increasing Through the Week....

Expected impacts:

• Periods of showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at times from this afternoon through midday Saturday
• With ground conditions already saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will likely result at least at times during the Watch period
• Initially, the typical problem low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible over time as we move through the period
• On average, rainfall of 4-6 inches is expected for much of the area mainly from this afternoon through midday Saturday
• Locally higher amounts are possible in spots depending upon exactly where the heaviest rainfall recurs during the period

Discussion:
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall at times across the area from this afternoon through midday Saturday. With ground conditions already saturated and stream levels running high across the region, flooding will likely result at least at times during the period. Initially, the typical problem low water crossings and other typically flood prone areas will be the primary concern, with stream and river flooding then possible in parts of the area over time as we move through the period. Please see below for a general overview of our present thinking for each day during the period:

...Today...
Scattered showers are possible this morning, becoming more numerous at times this afternoon into early this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into early this evening. The activity is expected to decrease near Sunset.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: Low to Moderate (Not widespread, but localized depending upon specific locations of thunderstorms)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Low

...Wednesday...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the midday and afternoon hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: Moderate to High (mainly p.m.)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Low to Moderate (mainly later p.m.)

...Thursday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Friday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Saturday...
Scattered to at times numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The activity appears likely to be most numerous during the pre-dawn and morning hours.
Low Water Crossing Flood Risk: High (especially a.m.)
River/Stream Flood Risk: Moderate to High on a localized basis

...Expected Rainfall Amounts...
In general, rainfall of 4-6 inches appears probable for most of the area on average throughout the period from this afternoon through midday Saturday. A few locations that receive particularly frequent bouts of heavier rain could see greater than 6 inches, while a few locations that don't receive as many heavy downpours could see less than 4 inches. It is also important to remember that ground conditions are already saturated going into this event, and stream/river levels are already running above normal levels across many parts of the area. Both of those factors indicate that it will take less rain than normal to cause flooding issues across the area.
We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.