Rainy during the day today; Strong to severe t-storms possible mainly after 10pm...

...Now thru 3pm Today...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue across the area. Most of the precipitation will be light in intensity, however a few moderate downpours are possible at times in some parts of the area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible, especially between 11am and 3pm. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered thunderstorms.

...3pm Today to 10pm Tonight...
Scattered to numerous showers will continue at times, and an isolated thunderstorm is possible. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any isolated thunderstorm activity.

...10pm Tonight to 6am on Thursday morning...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move West to East across the area from around or shortly after 10pm this evening through about 1am on Thursday. Locally heavy downpours of rain, strong, gusty winds and lightning can be expected with this activity. The heavy downpours may result in minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times through dawn on Thursday morning.

A few of the thunderstorms within the above mentioned line could produce wind gusts of 50-60 mph in some parts of the area between 10pm this evening and 1am on Thursday. In addition, embedded stronger thunderstorms within lines such as these sometimes produce brief, "spin-up" type tornadoes in spots. We cannot rule out this type of activity within stronger portions of the line in some parts of the area, especially near and East of I-35. Present indications suggest that the line is likely to become even more organized and severe as it moves just to the East of the area (further East of I-35) into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Average rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across most of the area with this event, the majority of which is likely to occur from 10pm today to 1am Thursday. Locally heavy downpours of rain may result in mostly minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times, which could linger in parts of the area through dawn on Thursday morning.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Heavy Rainfall Still on Tap At Times for Friday/Friday Night...

A significant rain event is likely to begin this evening, peak from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and then end during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Rainfall is likely to be heavy at times especially from later Friday afternoon into Friday night, and will likely result in flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas at times. Please see details below...

...6pm Today to 6am Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Scattered showers are likely to develop and/or increase after 6pm today and gradually become more numerous into tonight. The vast majority of this precipitation will be light in intensity. Some moderate showers may begin forming toward dawn on Friday in some parts of the area.

...6am to 12 Noon Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms especially by late morning. Ponding of water on roadways is possible in some parts of the area by late morning, especially where any scattered thunderstorms may occur.

...12 Noon Friday to 6pm Friday - Flood Risk: Moderate...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Some of the more flood prone low water crossings and similar locations may begin to see minor flooding especially after 3pm. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...6pm Friday to 3am Saturday - Flood Risk: High...
Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Flooding of low water crossings as well as similar low lying and/or poor drainage areas can be expected at times in many parts of the area. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...3am Saturday to 9am Saturday - Flood Risk: Continuation of any existing flooding is likely...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift off to the East of the area around 3am Saturday, however any areas that are experiencing flooding of low lying areas from prior heavy rain will continue to see those conditions through at least mid-morning on Saturday. Some of the most vulnerable low water crossings may remain in flood into the day on Saturday. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 5-7 inches possible in some parts of the area, especially along and East of I-35. In general, the lower end of the range (around 3 inches) is likely in Western parts of the area, and the higher end of the range (around 5 inches) is likely in Eastern parts of the area. If the locally higher amounts of 5-7 inches are realized, it would most likely be in areas along and/or immediately East of I-35, based on present indications. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Flooding Risk...
Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar locations should be expected at times during the Flood Watch period. At this time, the most vulnerable time period for flooding to develop locally appears to be from after 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday. While "new" flooding is not likely to occur after 3am Saturday, high water is likely to linger in any of the already affected areas, especially low water crossings, etc., at least through 9am Saturday, and quite possibly further into the daytime hours in some of the more vulnerable parts of the area.

The interaction of a cold front with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce this rain event across the area. The cold front may slow down and/or stall out for a time along or immediately East of I-35 later on Friday evening into Friday night. If this occurs, then the higher end (5-7 inch+) rainfall amounts could be realized in some parts of the area, especially along and/or immediately East of I-35. If this scenario comes to fruition, other flood prone areas besides low water crossings may also face an increased risk of flooding by Friday evening and/or Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday in that portion of the area.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Significant Rain Event Still on Tap for Friday - PM Rush to be Affected...

A significant rain event is likely to begin on Thursday evening, peak from Friday afternoon into Friday night, and end during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning. Rainfall is likely to be heavy at times especially from Friday afternoon into Friday night, and may result in flooding especially in low lying and poor drainage areas at times. Please see details below...

...6pm Thursday to 6am Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Scattered showers are likely to develop and/or increase after 6pm on Thursday and gradually become more numerous into Thursday night. Most of this precipitation will be light in intensity. Some moderate showers may begin forming toward dawn on Friday.

...6am to 12 Noon Friday - Flood Risk: Low...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms especially by late morning. Ponding of water is possible in some parts of the area by late morning, especially where any thunderstorms may occur.

...12 Noon Friday to 6pm Friday - Flood Risk: Moderate...
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Some of the more flood prone low water crossings and similar locations may begin to see flooding especially after 3pm. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...6pm Friday to 3am Saturday - Flood Risk: Moderate to High...
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times. Flooding of low water crossings as well as similar low lying and/or poor drainage areas can be expected at times in many parts of the area. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...3am Saturday to 6am Saturday - Flood Risk: Continuation of any existing flooding is likely...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely shift off to the East by around 3am Saturday, however any areas that are experiencing flooding of low lying areas from prior heavy rain will continue to see those conditions through at least dawn on Saturday. Some low water crossings may remain in flood into the morning on Saturday. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 3-5 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 5-7 inches possible in some parts of the area, especially along and East of I-35. In general, the lower end of the range (around 3 inches) is likely in Western parts of the area, and the higher end of the range (around 5 inches) is likely in Eastern parts of the area. If the locally higher amounts of 5-7 inches are realized, it would most likely be in areas along and/or immediately East of I-35, based on present indications. Please see "Flooding Risk" section below for additional details.

...Flooding Risk...
Flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings and similar locations should be expected at times during the Flood Watch period. At this time, the most vulnerable time period locally appears to be from toward/after 3pm on Friday through about 3am Saturday. While "new" flooding is not likely to occur after 3am Saturday, high water is likely to linger in any affected areas, especially low water crossings, etc., at least through 6am Saturday, and quite possibly further into the morning hours in some parts of the area.

The interaction of a cold front with increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will produce this rain event across the area. There are increasing indications that the cold front may slow down and/or stall out for a time along or immediately East of I-35 on Friday evening into Friday night. If this occurs, then the higher end (5-7 inch+) rainfall amounts could be realized in some parts of the area, especially along and/or immediately East of I-35. If this scenario comes to fruition, other flood prone areas besides low water crossings may also face an increased risk of flooding by Friday evening and/or Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Heavy rainfall likely to create travel issues later Friday afternoon into Friday night...

We are continuing to closely monitor a developing weather situation for the period Thursday evening through Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similar flood prone areas) especially from Friday afternoon or evening into Friday night. Please see below for details.

...Thursday Evening/Thursday Night...
At this time we expect scattered showers to develop after 6pm on Thursday and gradually become more numerous on Thursday night. Most of this precipitation will be light in intensity.

...Friday Morning...
Showers will continue to increase in number across the area, and a few scattered thunderstorms may also develop especially later on Friday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible with any scattered thunderstorms.

...Friday Afternoon and Evening..
Rain and occasional thunderstorms are likely, some of which are likely to produce periods of locally heavy rainfall at times.

...Friday Night/Pre-Dawn Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease by around 3am Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall is still possible at times during this period even as the precipitation ends.

...Storm Total Rainfall...
Storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely area-wide, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible in some parts of the area. The combination of lift along a cold front and plentiful moisture flowing into the area from the Gulf of Mexico at the surface will produce this rain event. If the cold front stalls out across portions of the local area - which is possible - then rainfall amounts could even be higher than presently indicated especially from Friday afternoon into Friday night.

...Flooding Risk...
Periods of locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and similarly flood prone areas) at times during the period, and especially from Friday afternoon and/or evening into Friday night/pre-dawn Saturday. At this time, the period from 3pm on Friday through about 3am on Saturday appears most vulnerable to such development.

As mentioned above, the primary factor to monitor at this time is whether it appears that the surface cold front will stall out across the area (or portions of the area) from Friday afternoon into Friday evening/Friday night. If this begins to appear likely, then concerns for higher rainfall amounts as well as flooding of other than low lying/poor drainage areas may also develop for some parts of the area. Details on that aspect of the situation should become more clear during the day today.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Cold Weather Impacts to Continue into Thursday Morning...

The strong arctic cold front that moved through the area yesterday will continue to produce a variety of cold weather conditions across the area through Thursday morning.

...Today...

Wind Chill values will reach about 20 degrees near dawn and then slowly moderate up into the 20s throughout the remainder of the morning hours. A few sprinkles or snow flurries are possible before 8-9am, but no significant precipitation will occur.

Anyone who must be outdoors for extended time periods this morning (i.e., those working outdoors, waiting for a bus, etc.), should take precautions such as wearing loose fitting, layered clothing under a coat for additional insulation. Also be sure to cover the ears and wear gloves to minimize exposure to the cold wind chill temperatures if you will be outside for more than a few minutes during this time period.

Wind Chill values will moderate into the lower 30s by around 12 Noon, and will slowly moderate up into the 30s during the afternoon hours. Wind Chill values will then drop back into the 20s by around 6-7pm this evening.


...Tonight and Wednesday Morning...

Temperatures will be at or below freezing from around 10pm this evening through about 8:30-9:00 am on Wednesday morning. This will result in the first hard, killing freeze across the entire area for this season. Based on the present forecast, readings will be at or below freezing for approximately 10-11 hours during this time period.

Minimum temperatures will likely reach the 28-30 degree range from around 4am through about 6am on Wednesday morning and then slowly moderate to around 32 by 9am. Readings will then moderate into the upper 30s to lower 40s throughout the mid and late morning hours.

Wind Chill values will be in the 20s again on Wednesday morning, mainly before 9-10am.


...Wednesday Night & Thursday...

Another hard freeze is likely during the pre-dawn and early morning hours, with temperatures likely to fall to around 30 degrees at most locations from 5-6am to about 7:30 a.m.

Temperatures will quickly moderate after sunrise, reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday afternoon.

Cold Weather Impacts likely Today through Wednesday night/Thursday morning...

A surge of arctic air will bring a variety of cold weather impacts to the area from today through Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Please see below for details by day.

...Today...
Northerly wind will increase to 20-25 mph sustained with frequent gusts to around 35 mph from about 12 Noon through around Midnight tonight. A few peak wind gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times mainly during the afternoon hours today.

Present indications suggest the wind will decrease mainly into the 15-25 mph range with occasional gusts to 30 mph around or shortly after Midnight tonight.

The strong, gusty winds combined with slowly falling temperatures (mainly in the 40s) will result in wind chill values in the 30s this afternoon, and the upper 20s by this evening.


...Tuesday...
Wind Chill values will be in the 20s throughout the pre-dawn and much of the morning hours on Tuesday - including the morning rush/transportation period. During this time, minimum Wind Chill values are likely to reach the lower 20s especially from near 4am through about 8am on Tuesday morning.

Anyone who must be outdoors for extended time periods (i.e., working outdoors, waiting for a bus, etc.), should take precautions such as wearing loose fitting, layered clothing under a coat for additional insulation. Also be sure to cover the ears and wear gloves to minimize exposure to the cold wind chill temperatures if you will be outside for more than a few minutes during this time period.

Wind Chill values will moderate into the 30s by around 12 Noon on Tuesday, and will continue at those levels into the afternoon before dropping back into the 20s on Tuesday evening.

Early on Tuesday morning, temperatures will fall to around 33-34 degrees across most of the area. A few spots West of I-35 could briefly touch the freezing mark near dawn on Tuesday.  Further West of the metro, a hard freeze is likely across the Hill Country.


...Wednesday...
Temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing from late Tuesday evening/Tuesday night through about 8am on Wednesday morning. Minimum temperatures will likely reach the 28-30 degree range from around 4am through about 6am or so on Wednesday morning.

With temperatures forecast to be at or below freezing for approximately 10 hours, this will result in the first hard, killing freeze of the season across the area. Readings will quickly moderate during the daytime hours, reaching the lower 50s by Wednesday afternoon.

Wind Chill values will be in the 20s once again for the morning rush period on Wednesday.


...Thursday Morning...
Temperatures will fall to around freezing or just below near dawn on Thursday, with wind chill values in the 20s for the morning commute.

Much Colder Conditions Monday thru Wednesday; First Hard Freeze of Season Likely Wednesday Morning...

A surge of arctic air will bring a variety of cold weather impacts to the area from Monday through Wednesday of this week. Please see below for details by day.

...Monday...
Northerly wind will increase to 20-25 mph sustained with frequent gusts to around 35 mph from about 12 Noon on Monday through around Midnight on Monday night. Present indications suggest the wind will decrease mainly into the 15-25 mph range around Midnight on Monday night.

The strong, gusty winds combined with slowly falling temperatures (mainly in the 40s) will result in wind chill values in the 30s on Monday afternoon, and the upper 20s by Monday evening.


...Tuesday...
Wind Chill values will be in the 20s throughout the pre-dawn and much of the morning hours on Tuesday - including the morning rush/transportation period. During this time, minimum Wind Chill values are likely to reach the lower 20s especially from near 4am through about 8am on Tuesday morning.

Anyone who must be outdoors for extended time periods (i.e., working outdoors, waiting for a bus, etc.), should take precautions such as wearing loose fitting, layered clothing under a coat for additional insulation. Also be sure to cover the ears and wear gloves to minimize exposure to the cold wind chill temperatures if you will be outside for more than a few minutes during this time period.

Wind Chill values will moderate into the 30s by 11am to 12 Noon on Tuesday, and will continue at those levels (and perhaps reach the lower 40s) into Tuesday afternoon.


...Wednesday...
Temperatures are expected to reach freezing from well before dawn on Wednesday morning through about 7:30 am on Wednesday morning. Minimum temperatures will likely reach the 28-30 degree range from around 4am through about 6am on Wednesday morning.

This will likely be the first freeze, as well as a hard freeze, of the season across the area. Readings will quickly moderate during the daytime hours, reaching the lower to middle 50s by Wednesday afternoon.

Cold weather early-mid week next week -- likely including the first freeze of the season on Wednesday...

Another surge of arctic air will bring a variety of cold weather conditions to the area from Monday through Wednesday of next week:

...Monday - Strong, Gusty Winds and Falling Wind Chill Values...

Northerly wind will increase to 20-25 mph sustained with frequent gusts to around 35 mph from about 11am to 10pm on Monday. Present indications suggest the wind will decrease mainly into the 15-25 mph range around 10pm on Monday evening.

The strong, gusty winds combined with slowly falling temperatures (mainly in the 40s) will result in wind chill values in the 30s on Monday afternoon, and the upper 20s by Monday evening.


...Tuesday - Wind Chill Values in the lower 20s for the a.m. Rush...

Wind Chill values will be in the 20s throughout the pre-dawn and first part of the morning hours on Tuesday - including the morning rush/transportation period. During this time, minimum Wind Chill values are likely to reach the lower 20s especially from near 4am to about 8am on Tuesday morning.

Anyone who must be outdoors for extended time periods (i.e., working outdoors, waiting for a bus, etc.), should take precautions such as wearing loose fitting, layered clothing under a coat for additional insulation. Also be sure to cover the ears and wear gloves to minimize exposure to the cold wind chill temperatures if you will be outside for more than a few minutes during this time period.


...Wednesday - Likely the First Freeze of the Season...

Temperatures are expected to reach freezing from near 4am through about 7am on Wednesday morning. A few locations may also see readings drop 1-2 degrees below the freezing mark, especially during the 6 o'clock hour on Wednesday morning.

This will likely be the first freeze of the season across the area. Readings will quickly moderate during the day, reaching the middle and upper 50s by Wednesday afternoon.


Be sure to take some time this weekend to prepare for the next round of cold weather...

Weather for Primary Trick-Or-Treat Time Still Questionable...

A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening, causing shower and thunderstorm activity both along it and well behind it. Ahead of the front this morning into the midday hours, areas of drizzle and/or light rain can be expected, along with some scattered showers. As the front approaches later this afternoon, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop and/or increase across the local area by around 4-5pm and continue into the mid-evening hours before decreasing between 8pm and 10pm. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will then be possible into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning, but will be less numerous compared to the late afternoon and evening hours today.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected at times with any thunderstorms especially later this afternoon into this evening. A few strong thunderstorms are also possible, which could produce strong, gusty winds and/or spotty hail in some parts of the area. At this time the most likely time period for any stronger activity locally appears to be from around or shortly after 4-5pm through about 8pm.

Please also note that strong to severe thunderstorm activity is likely to be even more numerous to the immediate East of the local area this evening.

Regarding the threat of locally heavy downpours across the local area, please keep in mind that ground conditions remain very damp to wet from recent rainfall. Any concentrated areas of locally heavy downpours could result in minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times from late this afternoon into this evening.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Weather May Provide More Tricks than Treats for Halloween...

A cold front will move across the region on Wednesday afternoon, causing shower and thunderstorm activity both along it and well behind it into Wednesday evening. At this time we expect showers and thunderstorms to be most numerous across the local area from around/shortly after 4-5pm through about 10pm on Wednesday, and then decrease in coverage from after 10pm Wednesday on into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning.

Locally heavy downpours of rain and lightning can be expected at times with any thunderstorms. A few strong thunderstorms are also possible, which could produce strong, gusty winds and/or spotty hail in some parts of the area. At this time the most likely time period for any stronger activity locally appears to be from around or shortly after 4-5pm through about 8-9pm.

Please also note that strong to severe thunderstorm activity is likely to be even more numerous to the immediate East and Northeast of the local area on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Regarding the threat of locally heavy downpours across the local area, please keep in mind that ground conditions remain very damp to wet from recent rainfall. Any concentrated areas of locally heavy downpours could result in minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas at times from late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Rain To Increase Throughout the Day Today - Possible Issues This Afternoon into Tonight...

Periods of drizzle and light rain will continue across the area this morning. Most of this precipitation will be very light to light in intensity. Rain is expected to increase in coverage and intensity during the afternoon hours today and continue into early this evening before ending from West to East across the area by 8-9pm. Moderate to locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with some of the activity during the afternoon and/or early evening hours today. An isolated thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out during the afternoon or early evening hours.

Average additional rainfall of 1.0-1.5 inches can be expected across most of the area through 8-9pm today, with locally higher amounts possible in some spots.

Due to saturated ground conditions and continued higher than normal stream levels across much of the area, ponding of water and/or minor flooding is possible at times mainly this afternoon and/or evening in low lying areas such as low water crossings, etc. in some parts of the area. Areas that are most susceptible include locations that received heavier rainfall earlier this week, as well as areas where any moderate to heavier showers may recur at times during the afternoon and/or early evening hours today.

The Colorado and San Gabriel rivers and tributaries will need to be monitored for possible rises mainly this afternoon into tonight due to rainfall that occurs upstream during the day today. 

As we work through the day today, we'll be able to identify any concentrated areas of enhanced rainfall (if any) on the upstream portions of these rivers which should make it easier to anticipate where rises may occur later on.

Please remember that larger rivers will continue rising well after the upstream rains end, as runoff flows downstream. Hence the reason we mention that these streams will need to be monitored into the nighttime hours tonight.

We will continue to monitor the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Drizzle/Light Rain Today, More Measurable Rain Tonight/Tomorrow...

Drizzle and light rain will continue this morning and then decrease for a time this afternoon and evening. Rain will increase again late this evening and/or tonight and continue into the daytime hours on Wednesday.

Moderate to briefly heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with some of the activity during the day on Wednesday. Due to saturated ground conditions and high stream levels, ponding of water and/or minor flooding is possible in low lying areas at times on Wednesday in some parts of the area, especially during or shortly after any periods of moderate to heavier downpours.

Most locations have received around 0.5 inch of rain so far (from yesterday afternoon through 6am today). On average, additional rainfall of 1.5-2.5 inches can be expected through 6pm Wednesday, with locally higher amounts possible in some spots. The majority of the additional rainfall will occur from later tonight into the day on Wednesday. This will bring total rainfall for the event (Monday thru Wednesday) into the 2-3 inch range on average across the area.

Present indications suggest the rain will end from West to East across the area around 6pm on Wednesday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Rain will increase this evening, continue at times through late Wednesday afternoon...

...Overview...
Periods of rain and possibly an occasional isolated isolated thunderstorms will increase across the area from now into this evening and then continue at times through late Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with some of this activity in at least some parts of the area, especially during the daytime hours on Wednesday. Any concentrated areas of heavier rain could lead to mostly minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings at times in at least some parts of the local area, especially on Wednesday.


...Forecast Rainfall Amounts...
Average total rainfall of 2-3 inches can be expected at most locations during the period, with locally higher amounts possible in some spots. Present indications suggest the rainfall is likely to be most widespread and/or possibly heavy at times locally from mid-morning (i.e., near 9am) on Wednesday through about Sunset on Wednesday. The period of time with expected heavier downpours at times will likely include the afternoon rush transportation period on Wednesday based on present indications.


...Potential Flooding Risks...
Due to saturated ground conditions and continued moderate to high river and stream levels across the region, conditions will need to be monitored closely for potential low land flooding at times, especially on Wednesday. If such flooding were to occur locally, it would most likely consist of periods of high water in the typical low lying and flood prone areas such as low water crossings and similar areas, and again, this would most likely be of concern during the day on Wednesday, and perhaps into Wednesday evening, per present indications.


...A Note on the Uncertainties with this Forecast...
While computer forecast model guidance has come into better agreement today vs. yesterday, there is still a somewhat higher than normal amount of uncertainty associated with the forecast, particularly with regard to the most likely rainfall amounts across the area through the period. Another update may be required later this evening or tomorrow morning to make a final adjustment to forecast rainfall amounts particularly for the Wednesday daytime period.



We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Heavy Rain Potential This Week...

...Overview...
Periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms will increase across the area again at times from Monday afternoon or evening through late Wednesday evening. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with some of this activity in at least some parts of the area, which could lead to mostly minor flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas such as low water crossings at times in at least some parts of the local area.


...Forecast Rainfall Amounts...
Average total rainfall is expected to range from near 1 inch in extreme Northern parts of the area (northern Williamson County) to around 3 inches in Southern parts of the area (southern Hays County).  

Locally higher amounts possible in some spots (especially in Southern parts of the metro area). Present indications suggest the rainfall is likely to be most widespread and possibly heavy at times locally from near dawn Wednesday through about Sunset on Wednesday. This will potentially include both the morning and afternoon rush transportation periods based on present indications.

Please note that present indications suggest that even heavier rain will occur on a more widespread basis not far to the South of the local area on Tuesday and Wednesday, generally toward I-10 and South from there, including the San Antonio metro area.


...Potential Flooding Risks...
Due to saturated ground conditions and continued moderate to high river and stream levels across the region, conditions will need to be monitored closely for potential flooding at times, especially on Wednesday. 

If flooding were to occur locally, it would most likely consist of periods of high water in the typical low lying and flood prone areas such as low water crossings and similar areas, and again, this would most likely be a concern on Wednesday per present indications.

As noted in the section above, present indications suggest that even heavier rain will occur on a more widespread basis not far to the South of the local area on Tuesday and Wednesday, generally toward I-10 and South from there, including the San Antonio metro area. An even higher risk of flooding is likely in this region during the period.


...A Note on the Uncertainties with this Forecast...
Please note, there is a higher than normal spread among computer forecast models regarding the most likely rainfall scenario for the local area in this situation. This is likely due to the complex nature of the situation, with a weather disturbance moving in from the West and moisture from two tropical systems in the Pacific possibly being pulled Northeast into the local area from Tuesday into Wednesday. 

There is no question that rainfall will occur area-wide especially on Tuesday and Wednesday ("high" confidence) but due to the above mentioned uncertainties and complexity of the situation, the confidence on the forecast rainfall amounts is only "moderate" at this time. If any changes were to be made, it would most likely be to raise rainfall forecast amounts for a good portion of the local area, not lower them, for the Tuesday-Wednesday period. This should become more clear during the day on Monday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

More Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible at Times Monday thru Thursday...

Periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms will increase across the area again at times from early Monday morning through late Thursday evening. Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with some of this activity in at least some parts of the area.

Total rainfall is expected to average from around 1.0 inch in the Northern parts of the metro (northern Williamson County) to around 3.0-3.5 inches in Southern parts of the metro (southern Hays County).  Locally higher amounts are possible in some spots.

Due to saturated ground conditions and continued moderate to high stream levels across the region, conditions will need to be monitored closely for potential flooding at times during the above referenced time period.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

More Rain On the Way, but Should be Mostly Light In Intensity into Saturday...

At this time yesterday it appeared that locally heavy rainfall would redevelop to our West today, over the Hill Country, and that some area creeks, streams and rivers that haven't already flooded could see rises as a result of those heavy rains to the West.

Fortunately, the rain that did form over the Hill Country today was not heavy, and the rainfall across our area has been mostly light to occasionally moderate in intensity, as expected.

Therefore...we are no longer as concerned about potential new rises on area creeks and streams (again, referring to the ones that haven't already flooded from this event).

We will still see areas of drizzle and light rain, as well as scattered light to moderate showers at times this evening into tonight and the first half of Saturday, but this activity will continue to be mostly light in intensity across the local area overall.

Please keep in mind that many local creeks, streams and low water crossings are still experiencing higher than normal water levels, and in some cases, fast moving water as well (though not at flood stage, other than the Colorado River obviously).  As a result, we recommend that caution be used and recreational type activities be avoided this weekend on or near area creeks, streams and rivers due to the higher than normal and faster than normal conditions which could prove quite hazardous regardless of any potential flooding situation.  Several area parks are closed due to high water anyway, which is a wise move for the above mentioned reasons.

Meanwhile, the Colorado River at Lake Travis will continue in major flood through the weekend and is likely to reach 705-706 feet on Saturday.  This area should continue to be avoided as many secondary roadways (even those other than low water crossings) will remain under water and very dangerous.  

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Major Cold Blast Still on Tap for Tonight into Mid-Week...

A very strong cold front will blast into the region tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Monday, bringing a variety of significant weather impacts to the area through Tuesday.

...Wind Impacts...
North winds will increase to 20-25 mph sustained with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph starting between Midnight tonight and 2am Monday and will continue into late Monday evening. During this same time period, some gusts of 35-40 mph are also possible at times, especially from 5am to 1pm on Monday.

...Temperature Impacts...
Temperatures will fall from a pre-dawn high in the lower to mid 70s, into the 50s during the morning and perhaps the upper 40s by Monday afternoon. Wind chill or "feels like" temperatures will mainly be in the 40s during the morning on Monday and may reach the upper 30s during the afternoon hours on Monday. For Tuesday, temperatures will range from the lower to middle 40s in the morning to the upper 40s to lower 50s during the afternoon, with wind chills mainly in the 40s throughout the day. Readings should moderate into the upper 50s by Wednesday afternoon.

...Rainfall and Thunderstorm Impacts...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely along/ahead of the cold front from near Midnight into the early pre-dawn hours of Monday, some with locally heavy downpours of rain in some parts of the area. An isolated stronger thunderstorm between Midnight tonight and 3am Monday may also produce strong, gusty winds, fueled in part by the strength of the winds associated with the cold front itself. Behind the front, a raw, cold light rain and periodic moderate showers will occur at times area-wide on Monday and Tuesday. Activity will likely become more scattered in nature on Wednesday.

Average total rainfall of 1-2 inches is likely for most of the local area from tonight through Tuesday evening. Locally higher amounts are possible in some spots. While there could be some localized concerns with regard to ponding of water, "street flooding" or other minor issues in a few of the low lying/poor drainage areas at times, this does not appear to be the type of event where significant flooding is likely area-wide.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

First Strong Cold Front of the Season to Arrive on Monday...

The strongest cold front so far this fall season will move into the region on Sunday night/pre-dawn Monday, resulting in strong and gusty winds and much cooler temperatures area-wide on Monday.

Northerly wind will increase to 20-25 mph sustained with frequent gusts to 35 mph from just before dawn on Monday through late Monday evening. Several peak wind gusts of 35-40 mph are also expected, mainly between 9am and 6pm on Monday.

The combination of the strong, gusty winds along with temperatures falling into the 50s throughout the day will produce wind chill or "feels like" temperatures in the 40s by Monday afternoon and evening.

The wind should gradually start to subside toward Midnight late on Monday evening/Monday night, lowering mainly into the 15-25 mph range by that time.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Showers & Scattered Thunderstorms Likely Later This Afternoon Into This Evening...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible before 3pm. Such activity is currently developing to the East/Northeast of the immediate local area and is moving/developing Southwestward. Toward and after 3pm, showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely become more numerous across the local area and will continue into the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with heavier showers and any thunderstorms this afternoon and early-mid evening. Cloud to ground lightning is likely with any scattered thunderstorms.

A few scattered stronger thunderstorms could also produce strong, gusty winds in spots especially before 6pm.

Looking ahead to after 6pm: Scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through 8pm, and then gradually decrease to a more scattered nature by the late evening hours.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Showers & T-Storms to Increase This Afternoon and Continue at times thru at least Wednesday Evening...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage starting this afternoon and continue at times into Wednesday evening. Although we are likely to begin seeing precipitation increase at times starting this afternoon, present indications suggest that the activity will likely become the most widespread (and prone to be heavier at times) from Tuesday into Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the period.

We continue to forecast average total rainfall of 2-3 inches for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible in some spots, mainly where any heavier showers or thunderstorms may become concentrated and/or repeat over the same areas at times during the period. It will be difficult to pinpoint where any such heavier precipitation areas are likely to develop until after the more numerous activity starts to get underway.

Mainly localized areas of relatively minor/nuisance type flooding are possible at times especially in low lying and poor drainage areas in association with any heavier activity. This will likely become of particular concern in some parts of the area from Tuesday into Tuesday night/pre-dawn Wednesday, as noted above.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible at Times Especially Later Monday thru Wednesday...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely at times through late Wednesday evening. The activity will likely be most numerous from later Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening, based on present indications. This is not to say that it will rain all of the time at all locations during this period, but the activity is more likely to occur at relatively frequent intervals during the specified time period.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with any heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms, especially from later Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

We continue to forecast average total rainfall of 2-3 inches for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible in some spots, mainly where any heavier showers or thunderstorms may become concentrated and/or repeat over the same areas at times during the period.

Mainly localized areas of relatively minor/nuisance type flooding are possible at times especially in low lying and poor drainage areas. The time period with the highest potential for such conditions will likely be from Monday night through Wednesday, when the activity is expected to become the most numerous and/or frequent in occurrence at times.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Increasing Rain Chances Sunday-Wednesday....

Shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will gradually increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening. The activity is expected to peak in coverage/frequency locally from later Monday afternoon (i.e., after 3-4 pm) through about 6pm on Wednesday, based on present indications.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times with heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly from later Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Present indications suggest that 2-3 inches of rainfall is likely on average for most of the area, with locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches possible in some spots where any heavier showers may persist for longer time periods during the event.

As mentioned in previous updates, we do not currently see this as a situation where significant/long duration flooding is likely across the local area. Instead, look for the possibility of localized areas of relatively minor/nuisance type flooding for generally short time periods in association with any concentrated pockets of heavier showers. Low water crossings and similar areas will be most vulnerable to such a possibility at times, especially from late Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Still Looking for Wet Weather Sunday thru At Least Wednesday...

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the southern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. This system will continue to move into the western Gulf of Mexico through this weekend. At this time it continues to appear as though this system is not likely to organize into a formal tropical storm or hurricane. Instead, the system will likely remain a "tropical wave" or "tropical disturbance". Regardless as to the formal extent of development with this system, it will bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

Present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting especially during the day on Sunday and will continue - frequently at times - through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday through Tuesday night of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Periods of locally heavy downpours can be expected at times in association with heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms during the period.

Present indications suggest that storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is likely on average for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 4-6 inches are possible in spots, depending upon exactly where heavier bands of rain may become established and more concentrated at times during the period.

Periods of locally heavy downpours are likely to cause issues at times in parts of the area, especially in the typically problematic low lying and poor drainage areas, especially if heavier downpours persist for longer time periods in a given part of the area. Flooding of low water crossings and other typical problem areas is possible at times in at least some parts of the area during the aforementioned period.

The above information is based upon our current knowledge of the situation and how it appears that it will likely evolve at this time. This forecast is subject to change as the situation continues to develop - so please monitor for later updates which we will issue as conditions warrant.

This is a developing weather situation with much uncertainty still involved. We will continue to monitor the latest trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Expected Rain Event for Sunday-Wednesday...

We are continuing to monitor a developing weather situation for the period Sunday through Wednesday of this weekend/next week.

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and will move into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. At this time it does not appear as though this system will organize into a formal tropical storm or hurricane. Instead, the system will likely remain a "tropical wave" or "tropical disturbance". Regardless as to the formal extent of development with this system, it will likely bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

Present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting especially during the day on Sunday and will continue - frequently at times - through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday and Tuesday of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Periods of locally heavy downpours can be expected at times in association with heavier showers and scattered thunderstorms during the period.

Present indications suggest that storm total rainfall of 1-3 inches is likely on average for most of the local area with this event. Locally higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible in spots, depending upon exactly where heavier bands of rain may become established and more concentrated at times during the period.

At this time this does not appear to be a situation where widespread/long duration flooding is likely for most of the local area. Instead, periods of locally heavy downpours may cause issues in some low lying/poor drainage areas at times, especially if heavier downpours persist for longer time periods in a given part of the area at times during the period.

The above information should be considered preliminary, based upon our knowledge of the situation and how it appears that it will likely evolve at this time. This forecast is subject to change as the situation continues to develop - so please monitor for later updates which we will issue as conditions warrant.

Extended Period of Wet Weather Likely Sunday-Wednesday...

We are monitoring a developing weather situation for the period Sunday through Wednesday of this weekend/next week.

An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the western Caribbean Sea and will move into the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This system may or may not develop into an organized tropical weather system late this weekend or early next week - but regardless of the formal extent of development - it will likely bring increasing moisture to the local region during the period Sunday through Wednesday.

With the above in mind, present indications suggest that shower and scattered thunderstorm activity will likely increase in coverage and frequency across much of the region starting during the day on Sunday and may continue at times through Wednesday. Based on present indications, the "peak" of potential rainfall activity would likely be on Monday and Tuesday of next week - but that could change if the track and/or speed of the system deviates from what is currently expected.

Depending upon exactly how the situation unfolds (which is not entirely clear at this time) locally heavy rainfall will be possible at least at times during the period in at least parts of the local area, and especially on Monday and Tuesday as noted above. As the eventual track of the weather system becomes more clear, we'll be able to be more specific on the potential for heavy rainfall and any associated hazards in future updates.

This is a developing weather situation with much uncertainty still involved. We will continue to monitor the latest trends and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Widespread, Locally Heavy Rainfall Likely Today...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely especially between 9am and 3pm today. Some isolated to widely scattered activity is possible both before and after that time period.

Locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with any thunderstorms, especially between 9am and 3pm today. At the present time it appears that rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are likely for most of the local area with this event, with locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches (or more) possible in any parts of the area that receive any concentrated thunderstorm activity.

The primary local concern with this activity will be the possibility of flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and the like) during any periods of heavy rainfall mainly between 9am and 3pm today. Depending on the extent of heavy rainfall during that time, issues with especially low water crossings may linger into the late afternoon or early evening hours in at least some parts of the local area.

An isolated stronger thunderstorm could produce strong, gusty winds and/or hail mainly during the morning hours today (i.e., mainly between 9am and 12 Noon), but the primary local concerns will be the potential for flooding of low water crossings and similar areas, as noted above.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

A Wet Friday In Store - The Ride Home Could Have Delays...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely from late Friday morning/midday into Friday afternoon and early Friday night.

At this time it appears that the bulk of the activity will likely occur between 12 Noon and 6pm on Friday. Some scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity may occur prior to this time, on Friday morning, but the activity is not expected to become more widespread until around or shortly after 12 Noon on Friday.

Locally heavy rainfall is likely at times with any thunderstorms, especially between 12 Noon and 6pm on Friday. At the present time it appears that rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are likely for most of the local area with this event, with locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches (or more) possible in any parts of the area that receive any concentrated thunderstorm activity on Friday afternoon.

The primary local concern with this activity will be the possibility of flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas (i.e., low water crossings and the like) during any periods of heavy rainfall mainly between 12 Noon and 6pm on Friday afternoon. It will be difficult to pinpoint exactly where this is most likely to occur until the activity actually begins to develop and get underway, so that we can identify any favored areas for persistent thunderstorm development (where/when applicable).

Please note that the bulk of the rainfall (as well as periods of potentially the heaviest rainfall) is currently expected to occur during the heart of the afternoon rush/transportation period on Friday.  If you normally travel in areas that typically flood during such conditions, it would be a good idea to have an alternate route in mind in case heavy rainfall impacts travel along your route tomorrow afternoon.

Spotty a.m. Showers, Slight Chance of an Isolated p.m. T-Storm Friday....

Expected impacts:

• Patchy areas of drizzle or very light rain are possible on Friday morning and a few spotty light showers cannot be ruled out
• An isolated thunderstorm is possible mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night, but this would more likely occur to the East of I-35
• If an isolated thunderstorm does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become strong, but again, this would most likely occur to the East of I-35
• Isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible overnight Friday night into pre-dawn Saturday

Discussion:
Patchy areas of drizzle or very light rain are possible on Friday morning and a few spotty light rain showers cannot be ruled out. Most of this activity will be very light in intensity and somewhat spotty in nature, with any rainfall on Friday morning likely to average only a trace or few hundredths of an inch in the impacted locations.

The afternoon hours on Friday are likely to remain dry, but a spotty patch of very light rain cannot be completely ruled out.

By Friday evening...a boundary will approach the local a region from the West. An isolated thunderstorm is possible across the area as this boundary moves through, mainly between 7pm and Midnight on Friday evening/night. The probability of a thunderstorm developing across the local area during this time period is about 20 percent (or less), with higher probabilities to the East of I-35.

If an isolated thunderstorm does form between 7pm and Midnight it could become strong, with strong, gusty winds and/or hail, but again, this would most likely occur to the East of I-35 during that time period.

Otherwise...isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible across the area overnight Friday night (after Midnight) into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday morning, behind the aforementioned boundary.

Please note: Strong, gusty winds will occur area-wide across the region on Saturday. 

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on Unusually Cold Conditions for Saturday...

Expected impacts:

• An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am on Saturday morning
• Scattered, mostly light rain showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning
• Temperatures will fall from the lower 70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then hold there for much of the daytime hours on Saturday
• Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the daytime hours on Saturday

Discussion:
A strong cold front will move from Northwest to Southeast across the local area from 10pm this evening to 2am on Saturday. Behind the front across the local area, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 10pm tonight and 2am on Saturday morning. While the chance of a thunderstorm developing is less than 20 percent, if a thunderstorm does form it could produce gusty winds and/or hail in the isolated area that would be affected. This is more likely to occur further to the East of the local area overnight tonight, based on present indications.

Otherwise, scattered, mostly light rain showers can be expected tonight into Saturday morning across the local area. Temperatures will fall from the lower 70s at Midnight tonight into the 40s by Sunrise on Saturday and then hold there for much of the daytime hours on Saturday.

Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the daytime hours on Saturday. Due to the unusual nature of such an event for this time of year, precautions should be taken if outdoor activities are planned for Saturday. Conditions will be more representative of a January or February cold front, vs. the type we normally see in April.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Unusually cold conditions likely for Saturday...

Expected impacts:

• An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out mainly from after 10pm on Friday through 6am on Saturday
• Gusty North winds, much cooler temperatures and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected during the day on Saturday
• Daytime temperatures on Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the local area
• Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during much of the day on Saturday

Discussion:

An unusually strong cold front (for this time of year) will move from Northwest to Southeast across the local area starting late on Friday evening (likely after 10pm) into the early nighttime hours on Friday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the cold front, mainly from after 10pm on Friday through about 6am on Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will likely be more numerous to the East of the local area during the overnight hours on Friday night and the pre-dawn hours on Saturday morning.

If an isolated thunderstorm were to manage to develop locally during the above time period, it could produce gusty winds and/or hail, but again, at this time any such activity is likely to be very isolated in nature (if it forms at all), with the probability of any given location being impacted at less than 20 percent.

Behind the cold front on Saturday, gusty North winds, much cooler temperatures and scattered areas of light rain showers can be expected. Daytime temperatures on Saturday will mainly hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the local area. Gusty North winds will create wind chill values mainly in the 30s to lower 40s during the day on Saturday.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Thunderstorms Possible With a Cold Front Later Today...

Expected impacts:

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly between 6pm and 10pm today
• An isolated strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during the same time period
• Thunderstorm activity will likely be more numerous, and stronger, to the East of I-35 during the same time period (and also afterward)

Discussion:


A cold front will move into the local area late this afternoon into this evening, causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly between 6pm and 10pm.

An isolated stronger thunderstorm cannot be ruled out during this time, which could produce gusty winds and/or spotty hail in at least some parts of the local region. At this time it appears that, for the local area, any such activity will likely develop behind the cold front, which would tend to mitigate the potential for "severe" weather somewhat. The probability of severe storms will be higher (in both number and intensity) to the East of the area, to the East of I-35, where thunderstorms are more likely to develop along or ahead of the cold front.

Behind the front, breezy and much cooler conditions can be expected across the area for tonight into the day on Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase during the overnight period and into Wednesday a.m.

Expected impacts:

• Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm can be expected before Midnight tonight
• Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, especially from 2am thru 10am on Wednesday
• Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible during periods of thunderstorms, especially at times between 2am and 10am on Wednesday
• Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across the local area with this event on average, and 2-3 inches of rain is possible possible in some spots
• Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop in some parts of the area late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening

Discussion:
Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm are possible across the local area this evening, before Midnight tonight.

It continues to appear that the timing for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the local area will be from overnight tonight into Wednesday morning, especially from toward/after 2am through 10am on Wednesday.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible during periods of thunderstorms, especially at times between 2am and 10am on Wednesday. Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across the local area with this event on average, and 2-3 inches of rain is possible possible in some spots. The majority of the rainfall will likely occur during the aforementioned 2am-10am period on Wednesday.

At this time this event does not appear likely to produce widespread flooding across the local area, but some of the more flood prone low lying areas (i.e., some of the more vulnerable low water crossings and the like) may need to be monitored at times, especially during any periods of locally heavy downpours that are expected to occur. With the more numerous shower and thunderstorm activity currently expected to occur between 2am and 10am on Wednesday, this would be the most likely time period where any potential concerns could possibly arise. Please note this includes the morning rush/transportation period on Wednesday.

In addition...we cannot rule out the development of an isolated or scattered strong thunderstorm overnight tonight or early on Wednesday morning, again most likely during the aforementioned 2am-10am time period. If any such development were to occur, strong gusty winds and spotty hail would be possible in any affected areas. The primary concern with activity will be the locally heavy downpours noted above, but we do want to make you aware of this possibility as well.

Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop in some parts of the area late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening, but at this time the extent of this activity appears likely to be some what limited. We will continue monitoring for any changes in this and issue updates as warranted.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Update on expected rain event for mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday...

Changes Since Last Update:

• No major changes have been made; attempted to continue to better define various timing elements where possible

Valid time of Advisory:

06:00 AM Tomorrow until 10:00 PM Wednesday (03/28/18)


Expected impacts:

• Scattered showers are possible during the daytime hours on Tuesday - and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out on Tuesday
• Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely during the pre-dawn and morning hours on Wednesday (i.e., from 5am-12 Noon on Wednesday)
• Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible during periods of thunderstorms, especially from 5am to 12 Noon on Wednesday
• Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across the local area with this event on average, and 2-3 inches of rain is possible possible in some spots

Discussion:
Scattered showers are possible during the daytime hours on Tuesday - and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out on Tuesday.

The most likely time period for more numerous showers and thunderstorms is still expected to be during the pre-dawn and morning hours on Wednesday, mainly from 5am to about 12 Noon on Wednesday.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible during periods of thunderstorms, especially from 5am to 12 Noon on Wednesday.

Total rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected across the local area with this event on average, and 2-3 inches of rain is possible possible in some spots, especially if more than one round of thunderstorm activity is observed at a given location. Again, this would be more likely to occur from 5am to 12 Noon on Wednesday, based on present indications.

At this time this event does not appear likely to produce widespread and/or organized flooding across the local area, but a few of the more flood prone low lying areas (i.e., some of the more vulnerable low water crossings and the like) may need to be monitored at times, especially during any persistent periods of locally heavy downpours that may occur in some parts of the area. With the more numerous shower and thunderstorm activity currently expected to occur between 5am and 12 Noon on Wednesday, this would be the most likely time period where any potential concerns could possibly arise.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Forecaster Confidence (Low/Moderate/High):

Moderate to High

Widespread, Beneficial Rainfall Likely Tuesday PM thru Thursday AM....

Valid Period of this Advisory:

12:00 PM Tuesday (03/27/18) until 07:00 AM Thursday (03/29/18)

Expected impacts:

• Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely from mainly after 12 Noon on Tuesday through 7am on Thursday
• Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially with any thunderstorms during the period
• Total rainfall is expected to average 2.5 to 3.5 inches across the local area with this event
• Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible with any organized/persistent areas of thunderstorms

Discussion:
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely from mainly after 12 Noon on Tuesday through 7am on Thursday. It will not rain during that entire period of time, but more likely on an occasional to intermittent basis during the period.

Locally heavy downpours of rain are possible at times especially with any thunderstorms during the period.

Total rainfall is expected to average 2.5 to 3.5 inches across the local area with this event. Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible in spots, especially in association with any organized/persistent areas of thunderstorms during the period.

At this time this event does not appear likely to produce widespread and/or organized flooding across the area, but a few locally flood prone low lying areas (i.e., some of the more vulnerable low water crossings and the like) could possibly need to be monitored at times especially during any persistent periods of locally heavy downpours that may occur at least in spots across the area. As we move closer to the even the most likely time periods for any such concerns should become more apparent.

We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.

Forecaster Confidence (Low/Moderate/High):

Moderate to High

Sharply colder today with rain especially a.m....

Periods of rain and possibly a few scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area this morning and then decrease rather rapidly this afternoon to mostly scattered areas of light rain.

While most of the precipitation this morning will be light to moderate in intensity, a few generally brief but locally heavy downpours of rain are possible with any scattered thunderstorms that may develop in some parts of the area at times. All precipitation this afternoon will likely be light in intensity for the most part.

On average, additional rainfall today will be around 0.5 inch or so for most locations with some 1 inch or so pockets possible in spots. The majority of accumulating rainfall today is likely to occur during the morning or midday hours, with decreasing amounts this afternoon in general.

Temperatures will continue to fall into the 40s this morning and reach the upper 30s in at least some parts of the area this afternoon. Gusty North winds will continue mainly in the 15-25 range throughout the day.


We will continue monitoring the situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.